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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    1/20 is basically a non - event on the EURO
  2. NEG NAO
  3. NEG NAO
    all the weeniesshowed up for the happy hour tonight
  4. NEG NAO
    and the 12Z EURO with fresh Radiosonde Data Input made a large move towards the GFS - your point being ?
  5. NEG NAO
    18Z and 6Z model runs should be taken with a grain of salt they are using stale Radiosonde data
  6. NEG NAO
    I think the flow is way to progressive and fast for anything more then 1 - 3 inches at this point in the metro
  7. NEG NAO
    I said 1-3 is being generous until the EURO comes on board.......Walt started the 1-3 prediction at this point
  8. NEG NAO
  9. NEG NAO
  10. NEG NAO
    12Z ICON
  11. NEG NAO
    last 4 runs of just the OP ?
  12. NEG NAO
    who is even mentioning 4 - 8 ??? Walt says 1 -3 " right now which is being generous IMO
  13. NEG NAO
    in other words the old GIGO theory In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, or nonsense (garbage) input data produces nonsense output. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording. The principle applies to all logical argumentation: soundness implies validity, but validity does not imply soundness.
  14. NEG NAO
    why would the model with the least amount of skill level be right ?? - plus the CMC is not a total rain storm
  15. NEG NAO
    GGEM has snow too
  16. NEG NAO
    even though the model run of CMC showed green along the coast the clown snow map showed this
  17. NEG NAO
    and 12Z CMC is a rainstorm actually in this winter the rainstorm makes more sense IMO
  18. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS Benchmark Track 1/16 snow start to finish NYC metro
  19. NEG NAO
    0Z EURO snow start to finish moderate accumulations in the immediate NYC metro - heavier south NJ
  20. NEG NAO
  21. NEG NAO
    yes that is why the intensity and the timing of the heaviest precip is critical because the beginning hours of the precip don't look cold enough need a few hours of steady snowfall when the colder air arrives
  22. NEG NAO
    we just experienced what happened in Central Park over the past weekend using the clown snow accumulation maps
  23. NEG NAO
    best looking OP model solution at 0Z so far is the GEM - but 1 important ingredient is missing for a SECS - strong HP in southeast Canada also temps near the surface are too warm too support much accumulation in the metro
  24. NEG NAO
    Euro and GFS more or less agree now - just have to get the ensembles of both on board.....
  25. NEG NAO
    need the EURO to back off on the amped up solution and still have to consider all of the ensembles - this cold air on the way means business !
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