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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    model has been inconsistent and has no other reliable support for a snowstorm - 12Z Euro is a complete miss to south
  2. NEG NAO
    Sleet here at 40.5754° N, 74.3224° W --- 39 F
  3. NEG NAO
    Walt - IMO and from past experience on this forum its way too early to start a thread for 1/8-9 especially after reviewing the 12Z models so far - No Consistency - and the EURO misses completely at 12Z - on to the ensembles to see what they say...........
  4. NEG NAO
    the 12Z models will start running soon - what we need for next weekend is what happened for the mid -December snowstorm - MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY ! And most models on board for a majority of NYC metro. If we get 2 or 3 days in a row of this then start the thread IMO.
  5. NEG NAO
    Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)
  6. NEG NAO
    why don't you list the highlights of next month or post graphics
  7. NEG NAO
    3 models now GFS - GFSV16 and UKIE with snow to the coast waiting on the EURO - CMC too amped ?
  8. NEG NAO
    talking about slippery surfaces and balls
  9. NEG NAO
    I disagree there is still a low chance of flakes in the air along the coast especially since its still being a few days away and we don't know the exact track of the storm yet ........
  10. NEG NAO
    IF the precip is heavy enough it could snow all the way to the coast but a a big IF could have an effect on both NFC playoff spot games in NJ and PA Sunday afternoon
  11. NEG NAO
    interesting
  12. NEG NAO
    Northern and western NJ too also the pattern is obviously changing again after this storm passes.............
  13. NEG NAO
    did I ever think or say here I thought that Monday is a snowstorm setup ? Why don't you keep an open mind this far out ? The models have been all over the place because that first system has a say about what happens with the track of the early next week system and we are still a couple of days away from the first system..........
  14. NEG NAO
    if you are talking long range up to 10 days here is the snowfall result:
  15. NEG NAO
    we are still early in the game - there has been no model consistency with this system and the late week system will help determine what exactly happens with the follow up system.........and the 1st late week system is still days away.......
  16. NEG NAO
    12Z EURO inland track for 1/3 event
  17. NEG NAO
    still plenty of time and will depend on exactly what the weekend storm leaves behind and hopefully can drag some cold enough air down after it passes........
  18. NEG NAO
    it is kind of odd that the previous storm did not have any cold air to tap and send our way just in time - BUT the 0Z Euro showed just cold enough air here for a changeover - this amped CMC is a good signal along with the AO plunging and increases our chances and hopefully the storm can get hold of just cold enough air for a changeover - waiting on the 12Z Euro and the ensembles of GFS
  19. NEG NAO
    12Z unreliable 16V GFS is similar to the GFS OP the storm doesn't have enough room to develop so moves east waiting on the Canadian to finish running
  20. NEG NAO
    not according to the 0Z Euro - like i mentioned earlier only reason I am tracking it is the Euro keeps showing it
  21. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS still not showing the storm for early next week organizing and moving up the coast still about 5 days out though - that previous system is suppressing it on this model
  22. NEG NAO
    as long as the EURO OP is showing this ( 2 runs in a row now) its worth tracking IMO. - but like you said needs other reliable model support. These one storm right after another are difficult for the models to accurately forecast ??
  23. NEG NAO
    While we are waiting for the next snowstorm in the NYC Metro here is a review of snowstorms from 1953 up till the the one just a couple weeks ago: https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html
  24. NEG NAO
    18Z GFS Para misses too - all this after the 12Z EURO came on board with the storm - typical model mayhem at this range....
  25. NEG NAO
    The event to now concentrate on is the follow up to this early weekends - early next week as the 12Z EURO has jumped on board along with Para GFS
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