NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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step down process right ?
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12Z GFS thinks so one soaking rain event starting mid week after another through first week of Feb.....
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and if the sun breaks through like reported north of us most of it will melt - I can still see blades of grass in areas of my lawn -
all the main roads even through neighborhoods have been salted heavily and now that the precip is slowing down they will begin doing that to the side roads before dark in Northern most Middlesex County there was no reason for a state of emergency .
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yes there was no reason to cancel school here but they might as well use the 3 snow days many districts have incorporated into the school calendar this school year because chances are this week might be the only real week of winter weather around here this winter. Also practically everyone who issued a long range forecast for winter 23-24 is going to bust badly the way it looks now IMO......after this week we are back to heavy rainstorms and 300 hour model driven fantasy snowstorms...
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time to start comparing radar returns with mesoscale model runs and actual surface reports to get an idea about tomorrow here.......
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my iphone screen shows snowflakes falling -lol
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Christmas Day 2022 sure felt like winter with temps topping out in the teens and lows single digits BUT bare ground so the feeling of winter was muted.........
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by that time - we will be mowing our lawns - I bet we have at least a couple 70 + degree days in February..
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and we will be analysing the longer ranger model hours wondering when and if we will see any more snow this winter.....
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Red Sky in the morning Sailors take warning..........
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its more like walking on old iced cement
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because NYC metro is still in a snow drought like it or not with only around 2 inches through January 18 and I would bet we will tracking dry slots tomorrow with many areas ending up underperforming and south Jersey getting at least twice as much as the metro...........
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As the precip begins to approach the area later tomorrow start looking at radars and surface reports and try and analyse which models are handling the storm most accurately.........
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you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly.........
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I would wait till later Friday evening..................In other words - now casting
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As of right now Fridays event will be close too a repeat of todays event regarding accumulation - 1 -3 except will be all snow and will fall mainly during daylight hours
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we need a snowstorm around here that can score higher then 1-3 inches - ever consider that ?
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snow has changed to Mix /Freezing Rain here Union/Middlesex county border NJ and looks to be changing Newark/Elizabeth with the precip band moving northeast
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the HRR is overdone and I have my doubts about the coastal increasing coverage around here
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i am a few miles northeast of you and I just looked same here flurries
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who is buying into the idea of a coastal low developing and increasing snowfall coverage around the metro after 7 am tomorrow ? Radar just looks like a disorganized light mess currently
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Radar is not picking everything up it is still coming down steady and lightly in its dry slot you shouldn't be shutting off totally - I am 10 miles west of Staten Island I have 3/4 of an inch only on the ground
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then there is a big hole dry slot on radar west of us lets see if anything is actually falling undetected in that slot or the snow shuts off.....
