NEG NAO

do you have a chart of the number of days between each one of NYC;s 10 inch or greater snowfalls ?

I am sticking with what I wrote here this past Tuesday morning.............

any details for precip and type in metro ?

Euro way south and east its amazing how much many of the models have been in agreement recently..........

not alone anymore

I would use the supposed "best " models the EURO and and EPS for now for next weeks event and then the other ones especially the Canadian and put less weight on the GFS and its sidekick the GFSv16 I would also just concentrate for now on the most important ingredients in this storm the track and the 850s . In this situation the track is key since the cold enough 850s settle in here after this weekends storm passes - always like to have that fresh injection of cold enough air before the storm arrives which signals that other important ingredient high pressure in southern Canada

850s are ok and in january thats frozen here

that's why this pattern might not favor snow storms in the northern mid atlantic till those are in place - confidence around here will not be very high if we have 2 misses to the south within the next week and then we get much below normal cold and dry for another week or more - it's when the pattern with the -NAO starts to relax slightly at the end of the month into February as the -EPO and + PNA settles in is probably the most favorable time for east coast snow storms and would match perfectly climatology the January 20th - February 11th period so patience is the key IMO.

dry or stormy cold ?

18Z GFS out to sea for next week system - 12Z EURO agreed

you have better graphics with precip then this ?

Next weeks storm on EURO same track as this weekends

12Z EURO

12 Z GEM for next weeks system

12Z GEM same as GFS out to sea but notice next weeks system starting to develop out west

it might be to our advantage if the week end system gets out of the way to the east and the vort in southeast Canada has time to move out of the way and allow HP to settle into southern Canada feeding in colder air prior to next week system

12Z GFS is a big hit for next week

12Z GFS once again is a miss because of the vort lobe that cuts off in eastern Canada and moves south towards NE blocking this out to sea south of us - no sense in even tracking this for now until things change - lets see if most the other guidance agrees at 12Z

yesterdays system was a prime example IMO of a system that needed to be nowcasted IMO - I was just using various radars -I didn't use any of the mesoscale models since people were complaining about them yesterday and I had plenty of notice in advance of what probably would happen in my area just using the radars........

0Z GEM

0Z GFSv16

0z GFS