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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    yea and the Canadian is in on the joke too at 12Z
  2. NEG NAO
    12Z GFSv16
  3. NEG NAO
    weird to say the least for late January - in fact this setup is one for the books............or is this model off its rocker ?
  4. NEG NAO
    its basically the same as 6Z but rain along the jersey coast
  5. NEG NAO
  6. NEG NAO
    this is as close as it got at 6Z to refresh everyones memory
  7. NEG NAO
    even slightly more with Kuchera
  8. NEG NAO
    and we are the gutter on the alley...........
  9. NEG NAO
    CMC is a solid 3 -5 inches across much of the metro especially west of Hudson - over a 24 hour period at least
  10. NEG NAO
    But its amazing that when I view some prominent online METS I always see them using the GFS as their model of choice in their videos........
  11. NEG NAO
    18Z GEFS Total Precip
  12. NEG NAO
    18Z GFSv16 - you would think this would be at least a SECS here too close to write this off completely on this model run..especially when we are still almost 5 days out
  13. NEG NAO
    For those who are south of I 78 in NJ maybe a few inches - but where you are less then that but of course we are just evaluating this particular run of a unreliable model..OP
  14. NEG NAO
    yea but in many other instances a look like that at 114 turns into a SECS - but not this time............as of right now - need major changes in the atmospheric setup.......
  15. NEG NAO
    Agree at hour 114 looks like we are in for at least a SECS then after that forgetaboutit..........
  16. NEG NAO
    thats going to reduce the suppression ? what are you trying to say ?
  17. NEG NAO
    how so ?
  18. NEG NAO
    maybe most of the metro can manage 2- 4 or 3-6 next weeks storms combined
  19. NEG NAO
    shouldn't take the NAM seriously past 60 hours IMO - but you can get an idea why this system seems to be losing moisture as it approaches the east coast ........(more then 1 reason IMO)
  20. NEG NAO
    so now was the 12Z EURO an outlier ? Like I said earlier everything is still on the table and this won't be settled till maybe at some point this weekend........IMO
  21. NEG NAO
    I wouldn't concentrate on the actual surface map precip fields depiction this far out - this shows the potential here right off the VA capes perfect position a few miles either way makes a big difference still 144 hours out
  22. NEG NAO
    pregame is the 26th -the 28th is the main event the way it looks now ......
  23. NEG NAO
    Might not be since the guidance has been inconsistent all week and now the GFS and CMC are suggesting the early week event is the appetizer with only a couple inches snow and then a couple days later comes the main event and the possibility of phasing and a MECS
  24. NEG NAO
  25. NEG NAO
    only 1 model run of 1 model and still many days away................
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