These are the types of setups where some locations aren't going to know exactly what they will end up with till the last minute or in the middle of it........Thats why it will be important for the NWS to warn against various possible outcomes....
Its amazing how Upton can be so precise with their snowfall amount expectations and issue a Winter Storm Watch for Staten Island and no watch for their eastern Union County NJ zone this far in advance...........
yes with a lack of reliable data input......the main features are now inland being sampled more accurately - and when all the models are showing further east - time to believe them...
Like I said earlier for me here in NJ this might be in the same ballpark as the storm earlier in the month where I got close to 4 inches........anyone who has been advertising a major storm for NYC on TV or radio took a big chance .........