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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    this model run makes the most sense IMO
  2. NEG NAO
    yes go back to the beginning of this forum - most were losing all hope a few days before............
  3. NEG NAO
    one thing is more certain then a couple days ago most of the metro is going to be close to 100% snow
  4. NEG NAO
    right now it does - remember a few days ago the setup favored DC with big snows for the previous storm then things changed
  5. NEG NAO
    I think the 12Z GEM will adjust going forward seems confused takes the low only up to the Delmarva and stalls and moves west slightly - basically its going to come down to where the confluence line is north of us..........BUT warning level snows southern and eastern half of metro
  6. NEG NAO
  7. NEG NAO
    what is interesting is 12Z GFS has transfer to basically the same position as 12Z NAM beginning at 60 hours
  8. NEG NAO
    warning level snows on this run for southern part of metro
  9. NEG NAO
    Then at hour 84 the 12Z NAM in its unreliable range starts moving west towards the NJ coast after stalling out in its previous few hours. All in All the transfer at hour 60 -63 can be seriously considered BUT after that we still don't know the exact track of this storm..........
  10. NEG NAO
    on the 12Z NAM the transfer to the coast happens between hr. 60 -63 - after that in its unreliable range the storm starts taking a near benchmark track up the coast
  11. NEG NAO
    similar to the Dec 19-20,2009 storm the precip took quite a while to travel through NJ towards the metro ………….
  12. NEG NAO
    IMO Dec 19-20, 2009 is the top analog storm for the upcoming event - at least in regards to precip distribution across the area - although no 2 systems are the same..... also I am siding with the EPS solution until proven otherwise...…….always go with the best Snow storm, December 19-20, 2009 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)
  13. NEG NAO
    that clown map is ridiculous IMO - example - why the low snow totals in western NJ PA border including Warren County NJ ?
  14. NEG NAO
    what's the story behind that 1969 storm and 1.82 precip and only 15.3 in. snow ???? with no changeover ?? low ratio's ???
  15. NEG NAO
    I am hoping we don't get that stalled out EURO coast hugger from 0Z because we have to keep the wind direction from more of a NE direction and hope the cold HP doesn't start sliding away to the northeast too fast and allow too much warmer ocean air to get involved - need a benchmark track .......
  16. NEG NAO
    im hoping it starts at about 6 am Monday so I am awake for most of it..............
  17. NEG NAO
    the big question now is how much snow we can get to accumulate before midnight Jan. 31 (Sunday) - to determine if NYC metro is below normal snowfall - normal snowfall or above normal snowfall for the month ...........the unreliable 84 hr. NAM does not have the snow beginning till late evening at the earliest....
  18. NEG NAO
    Upton and Mount Holly question that outcome for the immediate metro ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu) ZFP from KOKX (cod.edu)
  19. NEG NAO
    Probably because on the EURO the LP was actually slightly inland from the coast sitting there too long pumping in too much ocean air
  20. NEG NAO
    a real battle going on here as EURO up to this point hugging the coast causing a mix up here then moving northeast on this map
  21. NEG NAO
    I deleted the snow maps I posted today sorry if it caused a problem here..........
  22. NEG NAO
    EURO OP and most other models don't have an idea what is going to happen with the storm once it redevelops south of us - the storm itself is still off the Oregon/California border getting ready to move down the CA coast
  23. NEG NAO
    The primary low will reach the Ohio Valley sometime Sunday and then because of the blocking to its east/northeast will form an area of LP around the Hatteras area - classic transfer BTW - from that point the track of the LP is critical - does it start riding up closer to the coast or does it take a more northeast track ? The perfect track for us is a slow benchmark classic track just far enough off the coast so warmer ocean air doesn't get involved here - its impossible at this range to predict what actually will happen maybe in a couple days we will have a better idea..........
  24. NEG NAO
    GFS finally has storm exiting region early Wednesday almost 3 days after it started
  25. NEG NAO
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