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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    12Z CMC solid MECS
  2. NEG NAO
    long way to go - trended towards EURO
  3. NEG NAO
    yes Dr. NO spoils the party - until it comes on board confidence is low this far out IMO reason is the HP north of us is in the wrong position to feed cold enough air in closer to the coast track New England crew wins with this scenario
  4. NEG NAO
    no need for a late week thread 1/4 - 1/5 as of now as the 0Z Euro agrees with the GFS out to sea track
  5. NEG NAO
    coastal NJ and eastern half of LI will get mixing IMO and if it bumps any further west NYC metro will too ......
  6. NEG NAO
    looks cold enough at the start with the 528 line directly over the metro what are the water temps now ?
  7. NEG NAO
    yes the Ensembles have to be considered the mean and individual members
  8. NEG NAO
    well I took a nap earlier - hope DR. NO agrees with his/her fellow models - also don't forget the Ensembles
  9. NEG NAO
    someone please refresh this old mans fading memory - what is the usual outcome with model agreement this far out ?
  10. NEG NAO
    how about the mid/late week event too ? Not sure how that is going to play out yet
  11. NEG NAO
    way too early for a storm thread IMO - wait till at least Tuesday
  12. NEG NAO
    Now - what can go wrong ? lol 8-9 days out less then 50 % confidence of this actually verifying IMO - the key to this event is that HP in southeast Canada being strong enough and staying in that position along with the 50/50 low
  13. NEG NAO
  14. NEG NAO
    0Z GFS Op is too far east but cold enough for the mid/late week possible event but the 0Z CMC is all frozen here
  15. NEG NAO
    I don't like posting 198 hour 18Z anything BUT
  16. NEG NAO
    985 low just south then scoots out to sea - still plenty of room and time for this to turn into our first snow over 2" in close to 2 years
  17. NEG NAO
    12Z GDPS
  18. NEG NAO
    maybe it is a good sign for chances of frozen precip that the GFS and Euro are suppressed at this range for the next two storms Jan 4-5 and 6-7 ? Both ensemble mean GEFS and GEPS at 0Z are suppressed BUT the GEPS brings some precip to southern areas of the NYC metro....
  19. NEG NAO
    what are your expectations regarding snowfall through the colder then average period through Jan 10 ? For NYC metro....
  20. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro is Very suppressed - unless the GFS and or the Euro stop the suppression today chances rise the mid/late week storm misses us IMO - plus we don't need another rain event - many of our yards are like swamps and sump pump is over worked
  21. NEG NAO
    the long range storm still in fantasy land for the 8th has colder air in place BUT the storm is being shoved out to sea by that LP north of Lake Superior that shows up in this GFS run BUT the GEM does not show the LP north of Lake Superior instead a 1030 HP in Maine BUT this is going to change many times in the coming days
  22. NEG NAO
    can't say that with any certainty because the GFS is suppressed with cold enough air in place - a compromise solution would include frozen precip use the 534 line as the rain/snow line also have to start looking at the ENSEMBLES more closely in these borderline situations
  23. NEG NAO
    0Z GEM shows a rain/snow mix for NYC metro - the GFS is suppressed for the mid week storm
  24. NEG NAO
    modeling has been all over the place run to run - confusing everyone even pro METS - and causing an emotional roller coaster ride on this forum - so expect anything IMO
  25. NEG NAO
    some models showing suppression for next weeks events with cold enough air within range BUT suppression has not been a problem the last month
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