NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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yes always good idea to put all your eggs into one basket
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Snow storm, February 3-4, 1995 - Storm Summary
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they are usually all over the place especially more then 5 days out thats why creating a storm thread now is not a good idea - I am really interested in what the Canadian has at 0Z - it had nothing but a LP in the Great Lakes at 12Z basically with all the southern energy and precip swinging through to its south like a front
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good thing is the water temps are only a few degrees close to 32- I think the AI is overdone if there is no support- but too far out still
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Too far out to micro manage this storm its still where we want it - its all frozen - not cutting west of us
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can't read it its blocked but probably he said there will be no storm or rain plus he just put a video out a few days ago saying nothing through March 1 -thats why you are posting it ?
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thats why ensembles are important at this range
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this
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Uncle ?
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CMC is too far north and west with that storm IMO and running the southern energy out way in front of it - plus it didn't catch on to the northern side dynamics of yesterdays storm till late in the game
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its still up in the air so to say exactly when the storm will develop and reach here could be anywhere from 2/21 to 2/24
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that far out you can't take the colorful precip field seriously yet on any model especially OPS use the ensembles also a 991 in the perfect position will deliver here
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so you agree with me - go back a few posts thats what I said - Wednesday at the earliest
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ok - you start the thread than
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You started last months storm thread on January 19 for the January 25th -26th major storm and that worked out well
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agreed wait till Wednesday morning at the earliest to pin down the timing
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Start thinking about when to start a new storm thread.....this time period 22nd -24th has been on the radar screen for a while now
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stick with the Mesoscale models 36 - 48 hours out GFS and Euro jumps 50 - 75 miles one way or the other drive us nuts
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starting at 12Z today its better to prioritize the mesoscale models - the various NAMS, HRRR -etc. etc. IMO - of course the GFS is going to start playing games going south then north does it all the time
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it will look like even more is on the ground because there still will be a thick layer of ice/snow underneath it plus side streets here are not fully plowed closer to the curbs with some cars still stuck in the ice
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12Z 3K Nam stronger more amped than 6Z run - looks like Central /South Jersey gets the most - 12Z 12K Nam similar
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who is "we" ? If you are talking about your area in Rockland County - yes you are on the edge of the precip shield - BUT my area in Central NJ should get more.
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Sometimes there are surprises and models are trying to play catchup and never get it right especially in the beginning of a complex pattern change - it has happened before....In addition i don't think the models are receiving all the data they should on a consistent basis these days because of reduced funding. How NOAA funding cuts could make it harder to predict and prepare for severe weather | PBS News
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Snow storm is when Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are issued and they verify - no one said this is going to be a "snowstorm" as of now - don't need phasing to create a moderate advisory type snowfall or even a moderate snowstorm.
