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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    How often do you see the words "Snow Likely" in a forecast 6 days in advance ? ZFP from KOKX
  2. NEG NAO
    wouldn't that lessen the impact and open the door to mixing changeover issues in parts of the region? the December 5-6 , 2003 storm was 2 parts so could it be similar to this ? Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary
  3. NEG NAO
    plus isn't the GFS OP just considered another ensemble member ?
  4. NEG NAO
    Don't worry Walt we won't blame you if things go wrong ! LOL
  5. NEG NAO
    exactly !
  6. NEG NAO
    I would favor the CMC as of right now because the GFS OP was a complete miss too drastic a change in a few hours and its the worst performing model of the bunch - see if the GEFS agrees
  7. NEG NAO
    what is causing the lower amounts on the individual members ? Too far east ? Mixing ?
  8. NEG NAO
    if this gets too close to the coast and deepens there will be the possibility of mixing issues along Jersey coast and eastern LI - happened during the Jan 96 Blizzard I remember when I lived in Northern Ocean County NJ......probably in other stronger events also......
  9. NEG NAO
    just review some of the threads from the big storms here such as Boxing Day 2010 and the Jan 23rd 2016 storm and so on and see how close we were to figuring it out along with the guidance a week away...we weren't close to a final solution that far out
  10. NEG NAO
    seems like most guidance is suggesting the surface LP will make it to this LAT and the only question is how close to the coast will it be which will be determined by a number of factors but a negatively tilted trough would help .........
  11. NEG NAO
    IMO should be considering the 250mb jet stream which on last nights GFS was just north and over us which means there is room for the surface LP to move north - also shouldn't be taking these OP runs surface LP locations at face value right now.......
  12. NEG NAO
    I like the fact that the GFS has not been showing a 2 feet Blizzard here yet - should be following the ensembles now
  13. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro is a region wide MECS for the 20th system Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
  14. NEG NAO
    rather not see a direct hit here on the models a week out that almost guarantees a miss here
  15. NEG NAO
    the warmth Sunday is no big deal as it will last only hours not days - back to the ice box starting Sunday night through next week........
  16. NEG NAO
    yes - I was amazed yesterday when even some well know METS once again got suckered into believing the GFS 9 days out and using it in their discussions when they know it has led them down the same wrong road that far out several times this winter.....
  17. NEG NAO
    I wouldn't create a thread for mid- late next weeks potential until the flakes stop falling on Saturday....Plenty of time to start discussing it at that time - if it is still even a storm threat at that time.............
  18. NEG NAO
    define southern 2/3 boundaries please
  19. NEG NAO
    to be fair it was correct to downplay the storm in some areas like us folks here in Central NJ but other folks to the north and east had more snow - I think we got caught in the system primary to secondary transfer zone here in central NJ and others to the east got the full effect from the developing low that transferred to the coast and also the system was moving fast to the east
  20. NEG NAO
    would be hard to beat the 11 weenies I got the other day BUT I said each event would melt before the next one starts up till Tuesdays - was right about the first BUT last nights is harder to melt - because its snow and ice like cement
  21. NEG NAO
    Now thats crazy - not 1 -3 Tuesday I think 1-3 is a real possibility north of I-78 for Tuesday
  22. NEG NAO
    1-3 would be a big disappointment here - when ag is giving us a 4-8 potential need the LP too get down below 1005
  23. NEG NAO
    The Canadian setup is very good with the HP in southeast Canada BUT the LP is too weak off the coast
  24. NEG NAO
    I wouldn't count my snowflakes before they have fallen..........
  25. NEG NAO
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