NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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its still up in the air so to say exactly when the storm will develop and reach here could be anywhere from 2/21 to 2/24
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that far out you can't take the colorful precip field seriously yet on any model especially OPS use the ensembles also a 991 in the perfect position will deliver here
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so you agree with me - go back a few posts thats what I said - Wednesday at the earliest
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ok - you start the thread than
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You started last months storm thread on January 19 for the January 25th -26th major storm and that worked out well
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agreed wait till Wednesday morning at the earliest to pin down the timing
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Start thinking about when to start a new storm thread.....this time period 22nd -24th has been on the radar screen for a while now
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stick with the Mesoscale models 36 - 48 hours out GFS and Euro jumps 50 - 75 miles one way or the other drive us nuts
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starting at 12Z today its better to prioritize the mesoscale models - the various NAMS, HRRR -etc. etc. IMO - of course the GFS is going to start playing games going south then north does it all the time
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it will look like even more is on the ground because there still will be a thick layer of ice/snow underneath it plus side streets here are not fully plowed closer to the curbs with some cars still stuck in the ice
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12Z 3K Nam stronger more amped than 6Z run - looks like Central /South Jersey gets the most - 12Z 12K Nam similar
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who is "we" ? If you are talking about your area in Rockland County - yes you are on the edge of the precip shield - BUT my area in Central NJ should get more.
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Sometimes there are surprises and models are trying to play catchup and never get it right especially in the beginning of a complex pattern change - it has happened before....In addition i don't think the models are receiving all the data they should on a consistent basis these days because of reduced funding. How NOAA funding cuts could make it harder to predict and prepare for severe weather | PBS News
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Snow storm is when Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are issued and they verify - no one said this is going to be a "snowstorm" as of now - don't need phasing to create a moderate advisory type snowfall or even a moderate snowstorm.
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trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before
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lets first get the precip this far north than worry about precip types IMO more amped means more dynamics and upward motion in the atmosphere creating its own cold enough air (dynamic cooling) thats why it shows so much snow further south
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plus consider the several inches thick Ice Glacier still cemented to the ground
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this looks like a Central/South Jersey Special from Union County/Somerset etc. and points south of I-78
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weren't the models just showing some rain over Monmouth and Ocean County a few runs ago ? Thats interesting to say the least I think its snow now because of dynamic cooling with heavier precip
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and you said you emptied the gas out of your snow blowers - that might have sealed the deal !
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hmmm interesting - secret agents here now anyways whats your take on the Monday system and beyond ?
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you are a moderator ?
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do we really know much about these 2 models to make a final decision on their reliability?
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UH OH you emptied the gas from your snow blowers - thats a signal for more snow - but I would be surprised if we end up with nothing this month..... still 15 days to go in FEB.
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wow you shoukd write a book - so to keep this about the possible interesting weather events the rest of the month what is your opinion ?
