NEG NAO

Someone was late for work and had to go 75 MPH in the rain instead of the much lower posted speed limit - now you know one of the reasons your car insurance is so high here - anyways to keep this weather related if the GFS which has been very consistent with high snowfall amounts here the last few days is wrong - it should be retired ASAP on the other hand if the EURO comes to the party to late in the game it will just prove its not the best model anymore . Here we are fighting the battle between the warmsters - who have a proven bias towards no snow and warm weather and the snow weenies who get excited over any model showing high snowfall amounts.....and somewhere in the middle is the rest of us who keep an open mind...

I would be concerned that the frozen amount is overdone and in reality some of that is a mix or rain - to get 100 % snow down there any time of the year is rare

thats a work of art - and time is still on our side

seems reasonable to question it

like you said earlier - its late in the game for big snows in south jersey and those ridiculous amounts on the coastal Del Marva - will never verify

and the Euro snowhole over the region makes no sense either 2 runs in a row GFS is overdone in many areas and the Euro is underdone IMO

Mainstream media is going to have a field day with this the GFS their favorite model

18Z GFS gives most of the immediate NYC Warning Level Snows - lets leave it at that one model - one run 4 -5 days out onto ensembles then 0Z runs

we know that won't verify

yeah that strung out northern junk getting in the way - no phase - flat etc. etc, and the ridge too far east in the Rockies

so now casting begins Friday watching satellite- radars surface reports out west et. etc and then points east

EURO has been alone and wrong before - and usually comes on board late in the game sometimes- NWS has been relying on the NBM alot lately

read this Upton AFD -the 12Z models started trending away from the EURO - I don't think the 12Z EURO received all the new data because of that continued snowhole it showed at 0Z is still there at 12Z AFD from KOKX

and all the players are not on the field yet and have not been sampled properly the southern energy doesn't enter the west coast till tomorrow morning

then make your own list

doesn't make any sense that the EURO would stay more or less steady BUT the other models all reacted differently from yesterdays runs to the new data fed into them at 12Z

looks like last nights 0Z run - is it still working with last nights old data only ?

does the EURO receive less data now because ofthe budget cuts here ? Who provides them data on U.S. soil ? I don't buy the EURO's being so different then the other models

Models once again are all over the place 4 - 5 days out but overall improved from yesterdays let down - long way to go still

after reviewing 12Z Guidance 60 % chance - Advisory Level 40 % chance - SECS 30 % chance MECS 30 % chance below advisory level All of the above is IMO and for immediate NYC Metro only

is that King Kong ? They were ignoring the PM models that reduced the impact of the storm here since it was made at 2:38 PM yesterday

Canadian looks similar to the GFS - Euro coming further west at 6Z started this - proves the Euro is still the leader of the pack

that 12Z solution would work for me- lets not get greedy