NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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I would be concerned that the frozen amount is overdone and in reality some of that is a mix or rain - to get 100 % snow down there any time of the year is rare
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thats a work of art - and time is still on our side
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seems reasonable to question it
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like you said earlier - its late in the game for big snows in south jersey and those ridiculous amounts on the coastal Del Marva - will never verify
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and the Euro snowhole over the region makes no sense either 2 runs in a row GFS is overdone in many areas and the Euro is underdone IMO
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Mainstream media is going to have a field day with this the GFS their favorite model
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18Z GFS gives most of the immediate NYC Warning Level Snows - lets leave it at that one model - one run 4 -5 days out onto ensembles then 0Z runs
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we know that won't verify
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yeah that strung out northern junk getting in the way - no phase - flat etc. etc, and the ridge too far east in the Rockies
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so now casting begins Friday watching satellite- radars surface reports out west et. etc and then points east
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EURO has been alone and wrong before - and usually comes on board late in the game sometimes- NWS has been relying on the NBM alot lately
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read this Upton AFD -the 12Z models started trending away from the EURO - I don't think the 12Z EURO received all the new data because of that continued snowhole it showed at 0Z is still there at 12Z AFD from KOKX
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and all the players are not on the field yet and have not been sampled properly the southern energy doesn't enter the west coast till tomorrow morning
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then make your own list
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doesn't make any sense that the EURO would stay more or less steady BUT the other models all reacted differently from yesterdays runs to the new data fed into them at 12Z
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looks like last nights 0Z run - is it still working with last nights old data only ?
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does the EURO receive less data now because ofthe budget cuts here ? Who provides them data on U.S. soil ? I don't buy the EURO's being so different then the other models
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Models once again are all over the place 4 - 5 days out but overall improved from yesterdays let down - long way to go still
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after reviewing 12Z Guidance 60 % chance - Advisory Level 40 % chance - SECS 30 % chance MECS 30 % chance below advisory level All of the above is IMO and for immediate NYC Metro only
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is that King Kong ? They were ignoring the PM models that reduced the impact of the storm here since it was made at 2:38 PM yesterday
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Canadian looks similar to the GFS - Euro coming further west at 6Z started this - proves the Euro is still the leader of the pack
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that 12Z solution would work for me- lets not get greedy
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ediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone we will still see some snow
