NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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This polar vortex stretching again
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I would like your opinion on what I mentioned earlier with so many snowy NYC Decembers 7 inches or more ending up with above normal seasonal snowfall and quite a few much above normal Febs. monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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The strat warming is being advertised by some well known respected METS online - The proof will be in the pudding Forky
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Take a look at the historical snowfall in NYC - Many winters with over 7 inches snowfall in NYC have ended up with above average seasons and quite a few had much above normal Febs. Keep that in mind..... monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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Only problem with that theory is the LaNina is fading and the real only cold water is in area 1/2. By Feb.we will be in La Nada or a neutral Enso. This along with the next Strat Warming event favors colder weather into Feb. and this northern flow mostly Clipper dryer pattern will probably change to a southern storm track. Alll attempts by the warmsters here to end winter early have failed this winter - keep that in mind.
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The temperatures don't concern me as much as how dry the pattern becomes after the cold returns next Sunday
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there has been no flip flopping on the GFS , Canadian and Euro Ops through Sunday Jan. 11 all 3 have the cold returning that day - its after that the models begin having differing opinions especially on any storm development and or tracks which is normal at that range...........
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The 12Z Euro Op ends the January Thaw on the 11th - and a few days later there is a coastal low coming up the coast that originated in the Gulf -ALSO NOTICE THAT STRONG HP STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES - SOLID POS PNA PATTERN
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Read Mt. Holly's AFD AFD from KPHI - and the 0Z GFS is hinting at the Northern disturbance possibly connecting with the LP to the south if the trough sharpens more some parts of the area could see some snow. It just seems to want to snow this season - its snowing here now and there was only a 20 % chance - ground is covered again along with cars
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prove it - and prove why the attached issued yesterday is wrong - thanks in advance
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January thaw is coming early in January especially in the 6-10 day period --with the wpo negative - the epo negative the nao negative the ao going negative and the pna positive especialy after Jan. 10 chances are we will have below to well below normal temps in the east the second half of January along with the southern stream waking up. In addition another Strat Warming event is on the table for sometime next month setting the stage for a cold Feb. All of this with the MJO in the COD
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Euro long range OP says don't expect any warmth around mid month - is it right or wrong ? Anyones guess
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Anyone who thinks they have a handle on the longer range - should think twice before coming to any conclusions
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Too end this pointless NAM Discussion at least it stopped the northward trend at 12Z noticing the northwest flow and block and now moving east with the LP
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Because its the 84 hour NAM - would be interesting if it ends up leading the way.........the 06Z run is not giving up the northward track yet
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of course it will take a break but smaller breaks through January before the next arctic front comes through - also those great lakes cutters especially on the GFS are hard to believe with that massive blocking stretched across Greenland and westward - GFS has done this before trying to force the LP's to far into the block
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this shortwave is the strongest of the few arriving here the next few days - capable of putting down some accumulations in some areas of the region
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those enhanced areas might not be located in the same areas depicted here - also an inverted trough situation could develop the timing of this event is critical because there will be more people traveling then a usual week day night. A wide range of amounts region wide is a possibility - not guaranteed yet. I am sure I will get a weenie from some here - I wish they would get rid of these 5th grade emoji's here .
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what do you consider a "bigger" snow event ?
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I have received about 9 inches total from Clippers this month - making December an above normal snowfall month
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Any maps too post showing it ?
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impressive to say the least - individual storms produced by this still to be determined
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Upton is unsure about this but mentions in their discussion its possible - anyones guess right now
