NEG NAO

First of all you are talking about an OP model - and you should list some examples supporting your case

you on board for a SECS or MECS ?

so you on board for a SECS or MECS ?

agreed - I wouldn't discriminate against any model in this set -up - BUT when I see the GEFS and EPS not on board for anything other than an advisory level event - thats a RED FLAG against these OP models advertiising a MECS + event

agreed also after reviewing all the 12Z guidance I would say IMO there is a 50/50 chance of a SECS and a 30 % chance of a MECS - what does everyone else think percentage wise ?

the eps is only an advisory level event

GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP

IMO all options still on the table - we are too far out to determine exactly when and if a phase will occur .

only if the block weakens and starts moving out of the way

thats the primary transferring its energy to the coast - Canadian showed that also - Miller B

When you issue them with one of your future forecast packages

thats an nteresting question ?-why is the GEFS horrible ?- I would be concerned but there is enough support from several other models to not worry yet

one at a time -lol - where is that Philadelphia dude who was predicting the big warmup ? Also I hope sleet doesn't get involved in this that is part of the reason we still have a thick layer of ice/snow on the ground from the storm over 3 weeks ago

Even if its only half of what most of the models are showing now its still going to be at least a SECS or MECS in many areas

what this all comes down to is the timing of the northern energy and the southern energy and how and IF they phase together and where and IF that happens closer to the east coast. Typical Miller B setup - and as Don mentioned in his late afternoon post in the main forum "An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). "

Even shows rain to start just south of NYC - what we don't want is this to track too close to the coast because the cold air is marginal - although a more intense system can create dynamic cooling - still early in the game so we will probably have to go through the model madness as usual.

The most encouraging news at 0Z was the Canadian coming on board with the coastal solution after a solution that looked similar to the just released 0Z Euro OP - its possible that the EURO is just behind a cycle- maybe didn't receive all the updated data at 0Z - who knows - the ensembles might give us a clue

Dr. No OP in a world of its own as of 0Z Feb. 17 - the 12Z Canadian OP also had that cutter LP near the GL but changed course at 0Z

IMO thats a good signal this should be all frozen precip this far north

now we wait for the Euro's to see if they join the 0Z snowstorm party - when is the last time we had it "easy" around here almost week out with most models predicting a MECS this far out and it verifying ?

Its a week system close to a week away - expect changes - as long as it doesn't turn into another sleet fest !

Some folks here have suggested you start the storm thread when and if the time is right - some of the info you just provided can be included ?

yes always good idea to put all your eggs into one basket