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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    the last storm was not a big storm it was a weak fast moving mid lat. storm that had a couple of heavier bands. There was enough cold air because that Thursday night LP to the north passed and dragged in just enough cold this coming system late week setup is similar but the players are not in the same spot as before as of now......all about timing
  2. NEG NAO
    yes I saw that - that low needs to be further east just like the other night dragging down cold air in back of it to set the stage for the follow up storm.....
  3. NEG NAO
    this month will end up with avg temps much above normal and snowfall above normal in some areas in NJ especially
  4. NEG NAO
    same here many bare spots showing up here - and temps above freezing 37 degrees at 1:30 pm
  5. NEG NAO
    how did you get to 24.5 ?? I am only a few miles from you got 9" yesterday bringing my total to 17".........
  6. NEG NAO
    i am 10 miles east of their and the same result here - combination of snow settling - sun melting it above freezing all day and wind - by mid week most of it will be gone except for shady areas and snow piles........
  7. NEG NAO
    0Z EURO - perfect storm track with no cold air in place prior - need the storm to slow down west of us and cold air get here first
  8. NEG NAO
    true - a week from right now not a trace left unless the late week system delivers more snow which doesn't look likely as of now........
  9. NEG NAO
    who else lost at least half of their snow cover today ?- started with 8 1/2 inches down to 3 -4 with bare spots showing up surrounding larger trees........
  10. NEG NAO
    models are all over the place for this late week event - still a work in progress with timing issues but cold enough air close by
  11. NEG NAO
    then why does the thread title say "likely" ?
  12. NEG NAO
    any guesses as to when or if they will get 2.5 inches more to avoid a record 2 seasons in a row below 10 inches ?
  13. NEG NAO
    same here obviously - you could call this storm a bust for many but these systems are difficult to predict as Upton and MT. Holly were chasing their tails last night issuing winter storm warnings in now casting mode....
  14. NEG NAO
    these types of storms are very difficult to predict till the last few hours prior - we could have easily missed out on the heavy band....
  15. NEG NAO
    snow growth was fine at my location
  16. NEG NAO
    this is not a clipper its a weak mid- latitude cyclone - starting out in central rockies - it didn't originate in Canada
  17. NEG NAO
    Paying too much attention to the model fluctuations every 6 hours - most don't have a handle on this system........
  18. NEG NAO
    so in other words bust potential is higher then normal again for this event ?
  19. NEG NAO
    areas south of I-78 - 3-5 inches north of their 1 -3
  20. NEG NAO
    I am not sure you tell me ...........
  21. NEG NAO
    ok - keep us updated where that omega is located ?
  22. NEG NAO
    true if the heavier banding ends up there - not certain where the banding will occur as of now
  23. NEG NAO
    how are you going to determine that in advance of the storm ?
  24. NEG NAO
    just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1
  25. NEG NAO
    mainly If you are north of I-78 in NJ - central and south jersey are looking good now............
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