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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro - a few days after mid-week event next weekend) has been showing up on various models last few days-colder airmass to work with-also will be entering MJO phase 8
  2. NEG NAO
    Can't make this stuff up 18Z Euro AI is still off the coast out to sea
  3. NEG NAO
    still a long way to go with this - flip flopping at this range is not unusual and 18Z runs are not as reliable as 0Z and 12Z some data could be missing that was included in 12Z who knows !
  4. NEG NAO
    on to the ensembles - but 0Z will provide newer data.........
  5. NEG NAO
    there is going to be mixing somewhere- these amounts are not accurate yet BUT GFS and Euro moved closer to their mean Ensembles - probably more adjustments to come
  6. NEG NAO
    good luck trying to figure this out - like I have been saying the GEFS,EPS and Euro AI never had an amped up system to begin with this is still 5 days away there will be more changes in the models,,,,,,,,,,,,
  7. NEG NAO
    thats even better ! Walt is going to have his work cut out for him trying to figure out how to explain all of this in the storm thread......
  8. NEG NAO
    the 12Z GFS is moving further south more in line with the previous GEFS everyone starts as snow in fact is snow ice in the metro most of the event
  9. NEG NAO
    Can you please be more specific with the dates - the first storm is this weekends or next Tuesday ? When is the second storm ?
  10. NEG NAO
    look at the GEFS and EPS and Euro AI - strictly going by OPS 5 days out before the next storm even develops and passes is not a good idea
  11. NEG NAO
    IMO its interesting for the mid week storm that the ensembles of the GFS and Euro are not amped up like the OPS. Also the Euro AI is still southeast with precip barely making it into the Metro as shown below
  12. NEG NAO
    Only positive out of this rainstorm next week is with an active pattern more cold enough air will be dragged in behind it since the GFS is leading the way in this pattern December 7 it produces this
  13. NEG NAO
    Canadian is now amped - Euro AI is barely a miss east Ukie is now amped as of tonight looks like a rainstorm in the immediate NYC Metro - areas to the north I-84 etc. still in question.
  14. NEG NAO
    The 18Z Euro AI has the storm closer to the coast now
  15. NEG NAO
    and the amped GFS solution is wrong now ?
  16. NEG NAO
    really different solutions between the GFS and most other models - IMO GFS is too amped and will trend further south and east similar to the benchmark solution it had previously.... and other models will trend west closer to that solution....18Z is a leftover 12Z solution anyways - newer data at 0Z
  17. NEG NAO
    Obviously not after 12Z run
  18. NEG NAO
    I would rather have the models where they are now this far out and after todays 12Z runs I think this will be snow/ice or nothing north of Philly at least - GFS is usually over amped to begin with..........
  19. NEG NAO
    Good point
  20. NEG NAO
    So the Euro is worse too ? - similar solution as Ukmet - Euro Ai and Canadian - GFS basically alone as of now
  21. NEG NAO
    the 12Z Ukmet lost the storm altogether far out too sea now - nothing is set in stone yet still have 2 systems to deal with previous to this one - Ukmet shoving the cold air farther south could be a signal for a a colder scenario here next week
  22. NEG NAO
    Its rather easy to see why it would occur - that HP has to stay in place and block the storm into a favorable path for I-95 and provide the cold air source and be in a position to restrict the onshore warmer winds off the ocean - concentrate on the HP positioning
  23. NEG NAO
    The 0Z Euro starts as frozen in the metro BUT that HP does not stay anchored like in the GFS run so there is a change over to rain - still to early to predict the outcome except to say the storm chances are increasing and a frozen to rain scenario is favored right now IMO
  24. NEG NAO
    The OZ UKMET looks to be a closer to the coast track as the HP in southeast Canada is not as strong - starting at least as Frozen in the metro - the Canadian and the Euro AI are offshore tracks
  25. NEG NAO
    The important feature is the strong enough cold enough HP in southeast Canada staying PUT long enough to keep feeding the cold enough air in and storm track is perfect Benchmark because of this
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