NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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I don't consider low temps near 30 and high temps forecasted next week in the low to mid 40's as "mild" still need a winter coat.
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1957 -58 is not a good analog for this winter - 72 -73 is much closer monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov)
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doubt very much we will have 2 weeks of sunshine everyday and temps will stay mainly below 50 for highs ...........with some days closer to 40 and any clear nights radiational cooling into the 20's
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problem in that period is not enough cold air in place yet - need that strong HP in southeast Canada...........
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Maybe longer then that
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depending how it sets up in the lower 48 and interacts with the northern stream along with timing of various systems moving through
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basically the key uncertainties listed = no idea what is going to happen............
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For entertainment purposes ONLY now ! BUT you get the idea !
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This second wave of warming aloft should result in cold air outbreaks across much of the US during the middle and latter parts of February.
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the models are having a difficult time handling this pattern - expect changes over the next few days IMO all other data points to colder and snowy by mid month
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this NINO is going to come crashing down in March and be replaced with NINA by spring - so will not be your typical March weather..........expect anything and everything IMO
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I am still sticking with a repeat performance of January - a week to at least 10 or more days of wintry temps and precip starting around mid month BUT we dry out the next couple of weeks and we need too the ground is too saturated demonstrated by soggy soil and standing water on some lawns.....
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your reasoning is flawed and negative as usual - look at this and prove me wrong monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov)
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I have been around here since 1955 except winter 83-84 through 1995-1996 in Northern Ocean County and I have seen just about every kind of good stretch and bad stretch of winters so nothing surprises me anymore.......
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why ? monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov) Snow storm, February 11-12, 2006 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)
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not in this forum - certain unnamed posters always negative no matter what.......
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we are currently going through whats called an el nino "burst" which is going to cause a very active southern stream. Omega Block developing and heights will rise in Canada and colder air will be sent into the lower 48 just like January and we will have a wintry period the middle to latter part of February similar to January with snow chances here along the way ........
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this looks like a repeat of January with a week to 10 days of winter like weather and at least a couple of snowstorm chances........
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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3
NEG NAO replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
the upper level LP is still closed off down south which makes it more likely to ride up the coast as opposed to an open wave and is trending more north each model run - whether areas in the mid-Atlantic NYC and points further south get frozen will depend then on the position and timing of the HP in southern Canada -
also an Omega block is setting up moving forward beginning next week storm after storm will be riding along this southern stream slow moving and IMO a few will ride up the coast and cold enough air will provide us with the opportunity for frozen precip as HP will be in southern Canada
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there was a change in the GEFS ensembles overnight 0Z and 6Z closing off the wave down south which possibly can allow the system to ride up the coast since closed waves are more favorable for making that left hand turn up the coast then open waves which tend to travel more eastward -have to monitor and see if 12Z confirms the closing off of the wave
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ok lets have @allsnow lay out his detailed evidence - I believe someone with the MET tag over non MET tags
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its more about the el nino moving faster and stronger into the central regions (modoki el nino) but indications now are a complete faster collapse of the entire el nino and the beginning of la nina conditions by early spring
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where is your MET tag ?
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same here in The Swamps of Jersey - my sump pump is working overtime ..........etc etc - the OZ GFS - CMC and ICON are completely different on how they handle the block later this week - I suspect the northern stream is being overdone and as we go through the week that storm system moving through the deep south will trend north like the 12Z Canadian was hinting at.......
