NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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can't access his quick thoughts
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right now I think similar to January's pattern change which wasn't a big deal a couple light snow events like Don mentioned in a previous post..........that Nick Gregory 15 -23 inches was some ratings hungry producer twisting his arm to say it....
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pattern changes to what ?
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with below normal snowfall ?
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true - until I see some real potential storms showing up on multiple models multiple consecutive runs and Walt starts a thread within 150 hours with cold enough air in place with a favorable track then will take this pattern change seriously........... i see
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what is happening at the surface during this period ? Where we reside.........
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take out the first 2 weeks and what does it look like ?
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Too be determined at a later date......need the northern and southern streams to interact in a way to bring storms up the coast and timing is crucial.....HP in southeast Canada needed - cutters are less likely but are still possible with not enough blocking.....
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we will know before the pattern is in place if there will also be a stormy pattern developing.
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12Z GFS - not even a fantasy longer range snowstorm - not a good signal so far - the means can look great at 500 longer range but doesn't mean there will be any snow here
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its impossible to even speculate about storm tracks right now too early
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this is pure speculation at this point IMO we don't even know when the pattern change is definetely going to happen yet date wise........to try and pin point storm tracks is impossible right now
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I think the deeper we get into February areas south and east of DC will have precip type issues
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true but how often does the SE ridge work in our favor for a cold snowy pattern lately ?
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Looks good on paper - thats about all for now..
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still alot of cloud cover out there in NJ and you knows what will develop during the day - Upton usually does a poor job of predicting cloud coverage...
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What is your definition of " a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter" ?????
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Similar to the 60's that were predicted here last Friday several days in advance ?
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Looks great on paper !
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He has balls predicting another 15 - 23 inches in NYC metro this season . Good Luck !
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12Z GFS thinks this one is going to fail too
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this same theory probably explains why the late 90's featured 4 years in a row of well below avg snowfall and 1949 - 1955 well below normal snowfall - IMO these cycles are normal ... just like the above normal cycles
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water surface temps or air temps ?
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Superbowl Sunday Flooding Rains and President Days Weekend Bone Dry without a snowstorm in sight........in other words don't get too excited until its obvious that this pattern change will deliver any significant snow..........
