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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    the 18Z GFS clown map always a reliable source........
  2. NEG NAO
    12Z models= no snowstorm in sight and most of the colder air stays locked up in Canada at least through next week
  3. NEG NAO
    never ???
  4. NEG NAO
    Found this site detailing every NYC snowstorm from 1950 - 2022 Recap of Each Winter's Snowstorms in New York (1950 - 2022) - New York City Weather Archive (typepad.com)
  5. NEG NAO
    The Alberta Clipper, Manitoba Mauler and the Saskatchewan Screamer are all sweeping weather systems that can bring accumulating snow and gusty winds to the Northeast, Great Lakes and Midwest.Oct 18, 2023
  6. NEG NAO
    Maybe this will be a clipper pattern developing with very cold air in place can easily deliver 2-4 inches
  7. NEG NAO
    Canadian is rain a day earlier then GFS with a perfect track in the middle of February - all about the timing of the colder air arriving
  8. NEG NAO
    Time to start a thread ?
  9. NEG NAO
    12Z runs so far all over the place for next week Canadian cutter with rain GFS suppressed longer range most of the colder air stays in Canada GFS suppressed storm track..........
  10. NEG NAO
    that wildfire smoke was coming from whatever was going on in Canada......just so happened the wind direction favored it coming our way
  11. NEG NAO
    the models and other guidance will indicate this possibility one way or the other very soon
  12. NEG NAO
    we need this dry period the ground is too saturated
  13. NEG NAO
    February 29, 2024 - Leap Year Day 1 Snowstorm....... Today in New York Weather History: Leap Year Day (February 29) - New York City Weather Archive (typepad.com)
  14. NEG NAO
    Don wrote this in a post here earlier yesterday (Sunday) and this is why I say it will be no big deal "Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, this could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather."
  15. NEG NAO
    it feels like winter out there tonight upper 20's but with bare ground doesn't look like winter this season here we have had barely a weeks worth of snow cover
  16. NEG NAO
    yes but too what ?? No big deal IMO
  17. NEG NAO
    EURO at this range hasn't been so accurate this season so far
  18. NEG NAO
    this is more realistic IMO for next week - soaking rain storm
  19. NEG NAO
    this will only be considered real if shown by other models multiple runs IMO
  20. NEG NAO
    not crazy at all but this winter has underperformed since the beginning so can't be too optimistic. This will probably verify the cold air doesn't stay in place long enough
  21. NEG NAO
    why is this image showing green over the metro ?
  22. NEG NAO
    Better ??? Also its too far out to even speculate
  23. NEG NAO
    ok ok - he still owes NYC 15 minus 2.3 = 12.7 min.......good luck
  24. NEG NAO
    when should we begin to see models catching on to this idea ?
  25. NEG NAO
    with 15 -23 inches ?
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