NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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if this gets too close to the coast and deepens there will be the possibility of mixing issues along Jersey coast and eastern LI - happened during the Jan 96 Blizzard I remember when I lived in Northern Ocean County NJ......probably in other stronger events also......
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just review some of the threads from the big storms here such as Boxing Day 2010 and the Jan 23rd 2016 storm and so on and see how close we were to figuring it out along with the guidance a week away...we weren't close to a final solution that far out
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seems like most guidance is suggesting the surface LP will make it to this LAT and the only question is how close to the coast will it be which will be determined by a number of factors but a negatively tilted trough would help .........
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IMO should be considering the 250mb jet stream which on last nights GFS was just north and over us which means there is room for the surface LP to move north - also shouldn't be taking these OP runs surface LP locations at face value right now.......
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I like the fact that the GFS has not been showing a 2 feet Blizzard here yet - should be following the ensembles now
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0Z Euro is a region wide MECS for the 20th system Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
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rather not see a direct hit here on the models a week out that almost guarantees a miss here
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the warmth Sunday is no big deal as it will last only hours not days - back to the ice box starting Sunday night through next week........ -
yes - I was amazed yesterday when even some well know METS once again got suckered into believing the GFS 9 days out and using it in their discussions when they know it has led them down the same wrong road that far out several times this winter.....
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I wouldn't create a thread for mid- late next weeks potential until the flakes stop falling on Saturday....Plenty of time to start discussing it at that time - if it is still even a storm threat at that time.............
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define southern 2/3 boundaries please
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to be fair it was correct to downplay the storm in some areas like us folks here in Central NJ but other folks to the north and east had more snow - I think we got caught in the system primary to secondary transfer zone here in central NJ and others to the east got the full effect from the developing low that transferred to the coast and also the system was moving fast to the east
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would be hard to beat the 11 weenies I got the other day BUT I said each event would melt before the next one starts up till Tuesdays - was right about the first BUT last nights is harder to melt - because its snow and ice like cement
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Now thats crazy - not 1 -3 Tuesday I think 1-3 is a real possibility north of I-78 for Tuesday
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1-3 would be a big disappointment here - when ag is giving us a 4-8 potential need the LP too get down below 1005
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The Canadian setup is very good with the HP in southeast Canada BUT the LP is too weak off the coast
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which METS are saying that ?
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last nights along with all the others since the 1st of the year didn't even cover the entire grass still poking through here in North Central NJ.... about a compressed inch - question now is -will it melt HERE by the potential mid-week storm ? You guys who got 3 or more will not all melt IMO
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Safer now to go to the skating rink at Roosevelt Park ........
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I think we should just concentrate on the first phase of this week long event as what happens with the first wave and how it behaves will affect the crucial tracks of following waves as the week progresses .........this thread is covering too many days IMO - going to get confusing
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only about an inch and a half here of compressed snow/ice on Union/Middlesex County border in NJ - and its just about over fast moving storm less then 6 hours long can still see the some grass and ground underneath it all
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roads are an icy mess - because its not a school night no plows yet and that brine they put down does nothing
