NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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so give us your take on the models at 12Z...........
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agree - still nothing to get specifically excited about except for the POTENTIAL
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Now the Final Jeopardy question. Will The GFS OP still show this snowstorm in NYC Metro during the 12Z GFS Model run ? At least it is now under 1 week away.........
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how reliable is this model since they started using it ?
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what happened to the warmer 50's forecasted for Saturday earlier this week? Also I wouldn't trust any model solution past a few days in this setup '
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-0.2 below normal temps in other words near normal. Snowfall ? Anyones guess at this time.........would love to have a snowfall contest
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All the new players will be on the field next week - how those 2 disturbances too the west and south of us interact with each other will determine whether we have a chance of an East Coast Snowstorm. Strong ridging along the west coast helps transport the colder air in from Canada and blocks the Pacific Jet from flooding the country with warmer air which we have experienced recently - keeping that ridge in place and strong is very important
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0Z Euro Op only shows a storm coming up the coast missing to the east during about same time periods - have to get within 5 - 7 days to begin to take any of these solutions seriously - although this far out would not want to be in the bullseye yet IMO
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especially at 9 days out
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I would take the models past 5 and especially 7 days right now regarding individual storms with a grain of salt. There are so many shortwaves running around on the models past 7 days that they don't have an accurate solution yet........
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That Alaskan Ridge developing and extending down the west coast will block the Pacific jet and warmer air from flooding the country. It will also direct the very cold air from Northwest Canada southeastward into the eastern half of the country. A possible Gulf up the east coast storm track is favored in these setups.........
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For your info 2020 - 2021 was a LaNina winter in NYC and December had 10 inches - Jan 2 inches and Feb 26 inches - I don't even know why i respond to your nonsense ! Next !
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Once again there is no need to panic for folks that like snowy winters in NYC metro because the overwhelming majority of winters in NYC where we received at least 7 inches of snow in December had normal totals over 25 inches for the season with many much above average - the keyword is patience - also several had low totals in January then had much above totals after January monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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Happy 30th Anniversary
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first we need a trough to develop in the east with proper positioning to support a coastal tract and negative tilted trough increases SECS and MECS possibilties.
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Good enough
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This polar vortex stretching again
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I would like your opinion on what I mentioned earlier with so many snowy NYC Decembers 7 inches or more ending up with above normal seasonal snowfall and quite a few much above normal Febs. monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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The strat warming is being advertised by some well known respected METS online - The proof will be in the pudding Forky
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Take a look at the historical snowfall in NYC - Many winters with over 7 inches snowfall in NYC have ended up with above average seasons and quite a few had much above normal Febs. Keep that in mind..... monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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Only problem with that theory is the LaNina is fading and the real only cold water is in area 1/2. By Feb.we will be in La Nada or a neutral Enso. This along with the next Strat Warming event favors colder weather into Feb. and this northern flow mostly Clipper dryer pattern will probably change to a southern storm track. Alll attempts by the warmsters here to end winter early have failed this winter - keep that in mind.
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The temperatures don't concern me as much as how dry the pattern becomes after the cold returns next Sunday
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