NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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I would take the models past 5 and especially 7 days right now regarding individual storms with a grain of salt. There are so many shortwaves running around on the models past 7 days that they don't have an accurate solution yet........
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That Alaskan Ridge developing and extending down the west coast will block the Pacific jet and warmer air from flooding the country. It will also direct the very cold air from Northwest Canada southeastward into the eastern half of the country. A possible Gulf up the east coast storm track is favored in these setups.........
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For your info 2020 - 2021 was a LaNina winter in NYC and December had 10 inches - Jan 2 inches and Feb 26 inches - I don't even know why i respond to your nonsense ! Next !
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Once again there is no need to panic for folks that like snowy winters in NYC metro because the overwhelming majority of winters in NYC where we received at least 7 inches of snow in December had normal totals over 25 inches for the season with many much above average - the keyword is patience - also several had low totals in January then had much above totals after January monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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Happy 30th Anniversary
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first we need a trough to develop in the east with proper positioning to support a coastal tract and negative tilted trough increases SECS and MECS possibilties.
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Good enough
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This polar vortex stretching again
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I would like your opinion on what I mentioned earlier with so many snowy NYC Decembers 7 inches or more ending up with above normal seasonal snowfall and quite a few much above normal Febs. monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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The strat warming is being advertised by some well known respected METS online - The proof will be in the pudding Forky
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Take a look at the historical snowfall in NYC - Many winters with over 7 inches snowfall in NYC have ended up with above average seasons and quite a few had much above normal Febs. Keep that in mind..... monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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Only problem with that theory is the LaNina is fading and the real only cold water is in area 1/2. By Feb.we will be in La Nada or a neutral Enso. This along with the next Strat Warming event favors colder weather into Feb. and this northern flow mostly Clipper dryer pattern will probably change to a southern storm track. Alll attempts by the warmsters here to end winter early have failed this winter - keep that in mind.
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The temperatures don't concern me as much as how dry the pattern becomes after the cold returns next Sunday
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there has been no flip flopping on the GFS , Canadian and Euro Ops through Sunday Jan. 11 all 3 have the cold returning that day - its after that the models begin having differing opinions especially on any storm development and or tracks which is normal at that range...........
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The 12Z Euro Op ends the January Thaw on the 11th - and a few days later there is a coastal low coming up the coast that originated in the Gulf -ALSO NOTICE THAT STRONG HP STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES - SOLID POS PNA PATTERN
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Read Mt. Holly's AFD AFD from KPHI - and the 0Z GFS is hinting at the Northern disturbance possibly connecting with the LP to the south if the trough sharpens more some parts of the area could see some snow. It just seems to want to snow this season - its snowing here now and there was only a 20 % chance - ground is covered again along with cars
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prove it - and prove why the attached issued yesterday is wrong - thanks in advance
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January thaw is coming early in January especially in the 6-10 day period --with the wpo negative - the epo negative the nao negative the ao going negative and the pna positive especialy after Jan. 10 chances are we will have below to well below normal temps in the east the second half of January along with the southern stream waking up. In addition another Strat Warming event is on the table for sometime next month setting the stage for a cold Feb. All of this with the MJO in the COD
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Euro long range OP says don't expect any warmth around mid month - is it right or wrong ? Anyones guess
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Anyone who thinks they have a handle on the longer range - should think twice before coming to any conclusions
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Too end this pointless NAM Discussion at least it stopped the northward trend at 12Z noticing the northwest flow and block and now moving east with the LP
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Because its the 84 hour NAM - would be interesting if it ends up leading the way.........the 06Z run is not giving up the northward track yet
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of course it will take a break but smaller breaks through January before the next arctic front comes through - also those great lakes cutters especially on the GFS are hard to believe with that massive blocking stretched across Greenland and westward - GFS has done this before trying to force the LP's to far into the block
