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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    those clown maps are misleading - in central NJ as of 10 P.M. - MT. Holly is going with little or no snow accumulation ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu)
  2. NEG NAO
    maybe CPK can make it to 5 inches total for the season ........saying that on Feb 11th is mind boggling
  3. NEG NAO
    NWS answer so far for NYC immediate metro = no watches or warnings and only light accumulation possible temps above freezing
  4. NEG NAO
    mesoscale models should be trusted more starting at 0Z within 36 hours out
  5. NEG NAO
    Euro south - today we are on a south trend mainly
  6. NEG NAO
    NAM stayed south and GFS shifted south along with its Ensembles - waiting on 12Z EURO
  7. NEG NAO
    thats considered a big snowstorm in NYC nowadays
  8. NEG NAO
    thats closer to yourterritory my area is right on the fence between nothing and several inches
  9. NEG NAO
    this storm is going to become a nowcasting event with possible surprises
  10. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS agreeing with 12Z NAM inNYC metro down to Middlesex County NJ
  11. NEG NAO
    speed and exact track of this storm is key BUT CMC moved north
  12. NEG NAO
    this whole situation depends on when the system reaches West Virginia and then attempts the hand off to redevelopment on the coast the Nam has it redeveloping off the Del Marva which is further south then some other models
  13. NEG NAO
    Makes one wonder......its not unreasonable
  14. NEG NAO
    really ? they won't take the chance of forecasting that..........
  15. NEG NAO
    Many well known METS had a humbling experience this winter season - next winter should only issue winter outlooks that go out 1 month max........
  16. NEG NAO
    Those maps don't tell the whole story right now - I am still going with the 2 slushy inches NYC immediate metro and more inland which I have been saying for days now BUT the metro is still sitting right on the fence and can still fall off on either side - situation is too close for comfort in either direction IMO relying on some guidance that can be unreliable at times IMO...........especially 2 days out
  17. NEG NAO
    Only way this is more is if the storm slows down and passes off the Del Marva and is stronger - like some of the solutions from a couple days ago....along with the current NAM
  18. NEG NAO
    Euro not much different in the metro then 12Z a couple slushy inches immediate NYC metro
  19. NEG NAO
    I am still going with slushy couple of inches near the coast more inland - I would expect winter weather advisories having a chance to be issued late Monday for Tuesday in NYC metro
  20. NEG NAO
    So now at 0Z so far its the Ukie/Nam/Canadian VS. GFS/ICON didn't look at Ensembles
  21. NEG NAO
    If the Euro comes south at 0Z we still have a chance - but starting tomorrow at 12Z mesoscale models should be used.......
  22. NEG NAO
    its holding hands right now with the NAM
  23. NEG NAO
    not surprising for several reasons - main one being no established cold air in front of the storm
  24. NEG NAO
  25. NEG NAO
    Players on the field are not lining up correctly to produce an east coast storm on this output - LP in in southeast Canada can't be there and no cold air again before the storm
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