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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    ok - keep us updated where that omega is located ?
  2. NEG NAO
    true if the heavier banding ends up there - not certain where the banding will occur as of now
  3. NEG NAO
    how are you going to determine that in advance of the storm ?
  4. NEG NAO
    just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1
  5. NEG NAO
    mainly If you are north of I-78 in NJ - central and south jersey are looking good now............
  6. NEG NAO
    This is a lower then normal impact event since it is happening on a Friday night into Saturday morning and traffic is much lighter with closed school and many business'. Potential of 2-4 and 3-5 IMO especially south of I-78 in NJ ...
  7. NEG NAO
    Curious as to why Walt thinks this is as short as a 4 hour and long as a 10 hour event ?? Uncertainty of speed and development of the system ????
  8. NEG NAO
    IMO the models are not taking into account the higher ratios possible ( just like they didn't account for the lower ratios of the previous storm) especially the further colder north you go in the precip field so some areas you can add up to 50% more to the totals displayed
  9. NEG NAO
    with the higher than norm 10:1 ratios majority of guidance suggests this is a 2-4 or 3-5 inch IMO event south of I-78 in NJ down to at least DC and all the way to the beaches in NJ at least
  10. NEG NAO
    down here in central NJ the snow cover is decreasing rapidly - down to an inch or so with some bare spots - by the time the weekend snow starts probably just patches of an inch or less will remain.........
  11. NEG NAO
    RGEM came slightly (about 20 miles north) at 0Z and 2M temps are in the 20's in most of metro so higher then normal ratio's - 2 -4 inches region wide possible on RGEM
  12. NEG NAO
    they play this ultra conservative game practically every storm - thats what they are instructed by their bosses to do as opposed to what the private sector or media is instructed to advertise........
  13. NEG NAO
    cover their rears
  14. NEG NAO
    tend to doubt that will happen except far south jersey
  15. NEG NAO
    of course Mt. Holly is going conservative again 1-2 inches
  16. NEG NAO
    really ? how cold do the surface temps need to be for higher ratio's ?
  17. NEG NAO
    and this doesn't fully take into account 12 - 15:1 ratio's
  18. NEG NAO
    High Ratio's should be in the wording too IMO 12 -15:1
  19. NEG NAO
    many were saying the same thing in reverse ( favoring the northern areas) for yesterdays event at this same range 3 days out......
  20. NEG NAO
    which depends on where thursday night front sets up shop south of us with the LP on late friday into saturday riding along it
  21. NEG NAO
    yes in that range lower in some areas
  22. NEG NAO
    This probably doesn't fully take into account the higher snow ratios this time around - just like yesterdays clown map output didn't take into account the lower ratio's this storm will have at least 12:1 ratio and possibly as high as 15:1 in some areas
  23. NEG NAO
    Thursday nights frontal system passage with much colder air following helps set up potential few inches of snow here late friday night into saturday also higher ratios this time around more then 10:1. Where this front sets up and the path of the LP along it will determine where the heaviest snow falls just north of the track
  24. NEG NAO
    have to consider that snow ratio's will be much higher then yesterdays storm probably in the range of 12 - 15 :1. So don't need as much precip too accumulate since it begins in a colder air mass then yesterday
  25. NEG NAO
    still chance of this moving further north with more snow here - NAM is not in its most accurate range yet........
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