NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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How can you discount the Euro solution 9 days out ? IMO this has as much of a chance of verifying as what your saying has.... -
Can't hang your hat on any solution right now ............work in progress....
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2 weeks away ?? Lets start a 1/27 thread-lol
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there is a possibility this will turn into a minor event early next week similar to the last few - also the drought is continuing with little precip this month 0.10 inch at CP Norm 1.45
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This is a litttle odd the 12Z Euro develops a LP southwest of us on the 19th moving NE and the 06Z GFS does the same delivering a snow event BUT the 12Z GFS doesn't have it
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0Z Euro is too far off the coast and 0Z Canadian is inland with mixing issues here
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12Z Euro more or less agrees with 12Z Canadian I like seeing that HP in southeast Canada also...
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at least its not the GFS showing it
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and triple the amount of school bus drivers - plus how are school crossing guards going to deal with working in the dark ?
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try and make sense out of this: Winters around here are impossible to predict snowfall in advance monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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Deal ! BUT also post if its 32 and snowing
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when is the last time the hour 231 GFS verified ? The model is unreliable at best past a few days........
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Bad idea especially during inclement weather - you want your kid leaving for school at 7 am in the dark ?
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you'll get your dusting on Saturday
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so you agree we are going into a cutter pattern ? Consider the source you responded too- look at the guidance....
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the model solutions change on every model run - still 9 + days away out of forecasting range.......
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Need the ridge out west to move away from the coast into the Rockies for a more favorable snowstorm pattern along the east coast which would also favor a better chance of negatively tilted trough axis in the east......another crucial ingredient needed is a Negative NAO along with a strong anchored HP in southeast Canada....
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here we go again with the GFS long range
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so what ingredient(s) were missing ?
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then should ask Tropical Tidbits creator Levy Cowan why ?
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The GFS is a model loaded with mistakes in the coding which causes glitches in the output - also its obvious the GFS can't be trusted anymore past 60 hours and should be treated similar to the NAM - how many wild goose chases have we sent on with wrapped up blizzards several days in advance here over the last few years to eventually fizzle out in future runs ? That is what helped create this thread prematurely...
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Its obvious we aren't going to get much with a positively tilted trough axis
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this is as close Euro gets to us
