NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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I mentioned this earlier BUT someone please explain why Western Union County has Winter Storm Warnings in effect for 4-6 inches total and Eastern Union only has Winter Weather Advisory in effect for 4 -6 inches total ???? ZFP from KOKX -
going to be interesting if that actually verifies in those locations
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wasn't he predicting 6 -10 inches for this one a couple days ago ?
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did you look at the snow totals on that link 5 - 10 inches - less coastal NJ where do you see 20 ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/NJSnowRaw_20110111.gif
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dry slots are unpredictable till they happen - just like the central NJ banding during last Feb 16 -17 storm last year
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any maps or data ?
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Snow storm, January 11-12, 2011 - Storm Summary a fast moving storm also
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Eastern Bergen ,Eastern Essex and eastern Union should also be under warnings especially since they mention some areas could get 6 inches - they are cutting it to close IMO
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IMO Somerset , Middlesex and Mercer Counties which currently only have advisories for 3 - 5 have a 50/50 chance of being upgraded to warnings close to the start of the storm.......
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the entire region ??
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So he thinks all snow everywhere.........CMC gives LI mostly liquid
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sounds good - so what is your analysis of next weeks pattern - care to share ?
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I think its the same storm but with timing differences plus the GFS at 240 hours is not reliable
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CMC shows storm potential later next week too far out for specifics
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the 540 line on the CMC is east of us not plain rain plus track of low is probably too far west after the arctic frontal passage also GFS farther east
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for some reason I can't post Tropical Tidbits maps here BUT Pivotal maps I can
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06Z GFS has a snow - heavy rain storm here which wasn't even shown on yesterdays 12Z
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with GFS least reliable model past 60 hours
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CMC VS. GFS
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Beginning to think there will be 2 "thread the needle" east coast snow storms next week - Euro and Canadian same idea
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of course you can say that day 9 is each models biggest downfall and also anybody making predictions regarding Day 9 is their biggest downfall...
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How can you discount the Euro solution 9 days out ? IMO this has as much of a chance of verifying as what your saying has....
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Can't hang your hat on any solution right now ............work in progress....
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2 weeks away ?? Lets start a 1/27 thread-lol
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there is a possibility this will turn into a minor event early next week similar to the last few - also the drought is continuing with little precip this month 0.10 inch at CP Norm 1.45
