NEG NAO

We also need a block with that HP in southeast Canada - problem is past day 5 -7 the models are disagreeing with other models and they are all disagreeing with themselves run to run - lets see if the 0Z GFS has the same solution as the 18Z - I tend to doubt it at this point

We have no idea what will happen past 5 - 7 days at best yesterdays 12 Z Euro OP centered on Saturday 12/21 is completely different today as an example relating to the potential storm of yesterdays run

This is why you can't trust any model past Day 5- 10 Verified -Dec 2 12Z Run Vs. Dec 8th 12Z Run concentrated on Dec 12 12Z GFS Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits CMC Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Also IMO anybody who knows what the weather will be like Christmas week today is kidding themselves........

"Operational weather models just another ensemble member" means that a standard, single weather forecast produced by a typical operational model can be considered as just one possible outcome within a larger group of forecasts generated by an ensemble prediction system, where each individual forecast is considered an "ensemble member" representing a slightly different scenario based on slightly varied initial conditions; essentially, the operational model is treated as if it were one of many different potential forecasts within a broader range of possibilities.

ok thanks for verifying that statement

the month of December is going to end up dry ? Today is only December 2nd ????

GFS and CMC 850 Anomaly completely different at Day 10 - can't trust any solution past Day 5 GFS Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits CMC Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

He's not the only one hinting at a 13/14 type winter around here - Walt and that Tolleris fellow have also mentioned similar solutions........although Walt didn't directly mention 13/14

Wrong ! record cold early February 2023 New York sets new records for cold as 'arctic blast' shocks the city

not 2 years ago - Teens all day on Christmas

agree and not on the "Heat Island"

models have been all over the place run to run disagreeing with themselves

True but aren't all the measurements in Central Park NYC ? I would like to see a chart from outside the "Heat Island" going back to the beginning of recorded measurement time. Also several stations. different directions of NYC

give it time IMO........looking at the averages since the beginning they are all over the place in December and impossible to determine any specific trends there have been stretches of above normal in the past then returns to below normal monthlyannualtemp.pdf

December 1995 December 2000 and December 2010 - all below 33 avg temp and all three seasons La Nina's of various strengths and all 3 had over 50 inches seasonal snowfall in NYC.....

We all remember December 2010 Snow storm, December 26-27, 2010 - Storm Summary that winter featured a strong La Nina and if you go to the beginning of this forum thats the first major snow storm discussed here........

NYC had 57 and 50 inches those winters.........

give it time.........once the trough axis starts moving further west ( mid month) from right along the coast storms will develop further west rather then east of us......BUT timing and storm track is key and need that strong high up in southeast Canada...

did you post your winter snowfall predictions for 2024 -25 I didn't see them in Walt's thread ?

even with record amount of 80 degree days snowfall was still above average the winter before 50.3 inches at CP and the winter after 32.8 at CP......

NYC CP 45.1 LGA 48.5 JFK 34.0 KEWR 50.5 Just remember all time record of 79 this date in 2003 and December 2003 NYC had 19 inches and January 2004 17 inches snowfall..........this current pattern of warm and drought dry with cold shots in between is getting long in the tooth and all that snow cover up north and cold is building fast.........combined with a weaking La Nina later this year and early next year........ Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary Also used analog years with a weak to moderate La Nina that followed a EL Nino Winter 66 -67- 51.5 Inches Snow NYC Cp 2013 -14 - 57.4 Inches NYC CP 2020 -21 - 38.6 NYC CP 1995 -1996 - 75.6 NYC CP

it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup.....

still don't see a thread for this...IMO north of I-80 good chance of a few inches - the coast needs additional model support for the CMC

Snow storm, March 31-April 1, 1997 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

CMC once again at 0Z shows potential for accumulating snow.....IMO north of I-80 at least a few inches - TIP suggested a thread be created for this event a couple days ago saying it could extend south and west of southern New England