NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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Clown Map - doesn't make sense with the wide variations region wide with all the cold air in place post the Canadian and the Euro when it comes out and compare
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this is all too complicated for any model this far out - so solutions are wrong IMO
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Only runs through 168 doesn't tell us much only that the energy is south similar to the Canadian which then shears out past 168
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First of all being so far out in time we have no idea if these solutions so far today are even close to correct. Remember last night when the 0Z Euro gave us a Major Snowstorm + - wait for the Euro solution..........and then their ensembles - IMO the Canadian and GFS develop the systems in 2 different areas far apart out west shows the difference in opinions and probably wrong
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The second storm later next week goes OTS
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Pivotal Weather
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0Z Modeling Ops all over the place Canadian - not a flake - GFS shredded out maybe a light Accumulation and the Euro a Major Snowstorm - whose a weenie to believe ? Or even a a seasoned MET !
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0Z Euro Saves The Day
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Canadian still says "What Storms" ? Not interested in developing anything - not a flake here all week
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because it being 9 days out chances are its confused and wrong........and it is the 18Z with outdated input
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Probably is a good idea IMO for Walt to start a thread titled "Winter Storms Potential January 6 - 12" so the January thread doesn't reach 50 + pages before January 1st.
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Canadian stays south and off the coast
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The Canadian is completely different with the storm still far south
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11 days out too ! this is pure entertainment till we get into a reasonable range within 7 days at least
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whens the last time thats happened in the NYC metro in a MECS or HECS ? IMO I would wait till the first of the new year to make a storm thread if the guidance is still showing a chance of a storm........
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Then the gulf low rounds the corner up the east coast so now there is some agreement with the GFS OP and Euro OP BUT over 11 days out !
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0Z Euro Jan 6th storm is strong and cuts west of us with lack strong HP in southeast Canada - cold blast follows as another storm is developing out west - then a gulf low develops
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Until the Canadian and Euro and ensembles agree with the GFS multiple runs in a row on a snowstorm threat in January can't take the GFS seriously and who wants to be in the GFS bullseye this far out ? Sorry have to wait till we get into the 5-7 day range IMO to make a forecast...
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and all depends where the split flows and we need a buckle in the flow to slow the raging pacific flow down which is going to transport the cold air this week very fast across the country to our neck of the woods.......
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That storm might become the 50/50 low for the next storm if we are lucky and block the HP hopefully at least 1040 in southeast Canada...
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and of course it was the 18Z - lets get a few runs in a row of consensus of individual and multiple model ops and ensembles. We all remember the Boxing Day 2010 Blizzard questions were still being asked within 2 days of the event of exactly what the outcome would be......
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We will post the 0Z snow map too....its too bad all the models can't agree on individual storms this far out as they did with the coming cold blast Jan 2nd
