NEG NAO

"Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). " That quote is from Don's post from yesterday - How you consider 0.2 below normal "warm" is beyond me.

BX said no thread earlier - and I agree .

why does it say I don't have permission to see it ?

You should know all about that. Also explain the Euro more or less siding with it for the late week storm.

Strange snow totals - BUT its GFS and Euro OP against the Canadian and Icon - on to the ensembles....

so you are a believer ?

Canadian 12Z run is completely different next weekend to from the GFS

12Z Canadian is completely different then the GFS

Anybody else think this GFS solution at 12Z is looking weird ? Storm track is strange BUT that high in SE Canada is in the right place as the storm is intensifying offshore. Trough seems to have a negative tilt

improve how so ? Same as the Euro - little snow

When is the last time we had a snowstorm in NYC Metro with the MJO in Phase 6 ? As of tonight have to go with the best model the Euro Solution with the key players in the wrong positions which equals just about nothing here.

no its not if you are talking later this week=BUT don't make a big deal about it could change

NOT that it matters this far out BUT the Euro AI is too warm in the Metro

Inaccurate forecast that far out - thats why we have to keep our options open about later next week

wait 1 more day after 12Z Sunday runs IF there is more consensus with other models - disregard GFS snow totals now.......

all I can say is that the GFS keeps returning to the major snowstorm solution and its doing it at around day 5 -6 so it has to be considered but only taken seriously if any other models start leaning that way - Canadian is not at 12Z - Icon looks like it is considering it Also the GFS totals are way overdone IMO

Anyone else notice that Upton and Mt. Holly in addition to other NWS offices have a new AFD format - using "Key Messages" ??? Hope none of this is AI driven...the computerized voice on their weather radio stations is bad enough AFD from KOKX

I didn't even look at the ensembles 0Z runs because I ran out of time and was spending too much time trying to post maps from the OP runs. Did they show any potential snowfall for a majority of members ? I am satisfied with just a normal snowfall - the 1-3 , 2 -4 , 3-6, 4-8 variety anything over that doesn't grow on trees so to say in the immediate metro so no sense expecting those most of the time. The 06Z GFS for what its off hours run is worth doesn't show the strong wrapped up LP it showed in a previous run - BUT still shows rain changing to snow with a few to several inches Metro wide

Nothing to show at all on the 0Z Euro - no snowfall and little precip after this weekend throughout the entire run

The Euro AI solution is closest to the GFS except it doesn't become a wrapped up bomb along the coast like the GFS and lacking the dynamics to draw in the colder air to produce frozen it is mainly rain right along the coast

at this point it is not possible to determine which model solution if any of them will be close to verifying - but there are vast differences in solutions now past 5 days - until a couple of them get to the point of basic agreement - confidence will increase probably in another 2 or 3 days. It was amazing though how far in advance they agreed on the current systems moving through especially the cold front sweeping across the nation scheduled to pass later Sunday - they had that solution for several days now.

For anyone wondering why each models output is so different - here it is AI Overview No, different weather models don't get the exact same data, and even with similar data, they interpret it differently due to unique physics equations, algorithms, resolution, and data assimilation methods, leading to varied forecasts, which is why meteorologists use multiple models for confidence. While core data (satellites, balloons) is shared, how each model processes it (initialization, grid size, physics) creates distinct outputs.

Ukie is different than both the GFS and Canadian - would like to be under "hood" of these models and see what info - collected data- is being fed into them and how they are programmed to handle it

Thats only part of the equation much more complicated than that.

Totally opposing solutions GFS and Canadian