NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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to refresh our memory what are some of his credentials and how did he perform with this past weekends storm ?
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I would give it 72 hours at least - like the last storm no one is expectiing a HECS - a 2-4 or 3-6 is more reasonable IMO
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you can tell the GFS OP is out to lunch because the GEFS has no huge snowfall amounts south of us like the OP does - treat the OP like one of the ensemble members.
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EPS mean still delivers a few inches snow - ratio's probably higher than 10:1 - liquid QPF Map - don't have access to snow map
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Progressive flow caused by that LP vort near Minnesota moving east BUT is it right ? See if the EPS agrees with the OP
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The lp on 0Z Euro went from a 995 to a 983 stalled off NC coast in 6 hours - BUT 12 hours later deepens to 962mb moving east - weird solution and progressive flow that L near Minnesota is not a good signal with HP in southeast Canada - too far north
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The EURO AI moved east from 18Z - this thing has to take on a more negative tilt IMO.
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sounds like a flat roof to me - most of the sloped roofs lose the snow faster especially south facing ones
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it might not totally "miss" AND there is a reason a HECS has never verified a week after a MECS in NYC in recorded history . Very unlikely . BUT not impossible. IMO
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as far west as the Euro AI ? I think we have the windshield wipers on now regarding the models
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need that to go more neutral or negative
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yes the odds would favor that you would think - BUT it still can be a MECS at least can't discount it yet IMO
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I would assume that never happened in recorded history within a week of each other - in NYC. BUT it p[robably happened way back when in that area - Maybe when Moses was still wearing short pants........
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So this would be a once in a lifetime event(s) 2 MECS so close together
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For NYC have any 2 storms on record had accumulations over 10 inches each within a week of each other ?
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So what were the NWS final totals for each location ?
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Still can go OTS or just close enough IMO
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we have the GFS for that
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didn't make all of us think that way I kept questioning that theory by posting this: monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf many yearly stretches of below normal snowfall than normal to way above returns
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just like it was a complete miss south several days before yesterdays MECS
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IF IF this were to verify for next weekend POTENTIAL KU STORM IMO
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I have about 6 inches so far - and probably another 6 on the way after that heavy frontogenisis goes by
