NEG NAO

give it time.........once the trough axis starts moving further west ( mid month) from right along the coast storms will develop further west rather then east of us......BUT timing and storm track is key and need that strong high up in southeast Canada...

did you post your winter snowfall predictions for 2024 -25 I didn't see them in Walt's thread ?

even with record amount of 80 degree days snowfall was still above average the winter before 50.3 inches at CP and the winter after 32.8 at CP......

NYC CP 45.1 LGA 48.5 JFK 34.0 KEWR 50.5 Just remember all time record of 79 this date in 2003 and December 2003 NYC had 19 inches and January 2004 17 inches snowfall..........this current pattern of warm and drought dry with cold shots in between is getting long in the tooth and all that snow cover up north and cold is building fast.........combined with a weaking La Nina later this year and early next year........ Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary Also used analog years with a weak to moderate La Nina that followed a EL Nino Winter 66 -67- 51.5 Inches Snow NYC Cp 2013 -14 - 57.4 Inches NYC CP 2020 -21 - 38.6 NYC CP 1995 -1996 - 75.6 NYC CP

it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup.....

still don't see a thread for this...IMO north of I-80 good chance of a few inches - the coast needs additional model support for the CMC

Snow storm, March 31-April 1, 1997 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

CMC once again at 0Z shows potential for accumulating snow.....IMO north of I-80 at least a few inches - TIP suggested a thread be created for this event a couple days ago saying it could extend south and west of southern New England

the 12Z Euro shifted south with the snow accumulations in the metro

I still think areas north of I-80 have not seen the last of accumulating snow - and the coast is still in question - remember I like my weenies with mustard........

CMC is on a roll........a real GEM....

no similarities ? is a 100 year Arctic outbreak needed this time around ?

how does this setup compare to April 6, 1982 ? - similarities and or differences ......

how about covered in snow ?

I like mine with mustard on it........

and then you have the Canadian solution possibility later in the week with enough cold air dragged into the system to change it to snow

12Z regular Euro looks like the previous AI Euro for early april

some have never actually experienced getting caught with their pants down - in fact a couple well known METS did on April 6, 1982

and the right pattern is coming up Later this week into the first few days of April with a neg NAO MJO into 8 and a coastal storm later in the week and a tight gradient storm between cold enough air and warm air to the south storm moving west to east just south of us and we are in the cold sector

look what the 12Z Canadian cooked up

they were saying the same thing on March 24, 1982....

actually its not impossible to have a surprise here if the timing is right.........

if it continues too perform that way they have to try and fix it..........