NEG NAO

I agree -thats been the trend the last few systems - plus these frontal systems are moving fast and trying to pinpoint who will get how much is like throwing paint at a wall.....as for the coastal storm early next week placement and strength of the HP to the north is critical

Its becoming obvious that the overall very dry conditions will continue in the NYC metro for the most part until further notice ..........

12Z Canadian now keeps storm offshore for the most part

waiting for the first model to jump ship with a miss or a light to moderate event here............very difficult to break a long dry spell especially in such a dramatic way....

We ran out of days in the month to break the record but we wouldn't have done it tomorrow anyways with temps much cooler on the way...........

How dry we will most likely be the next few weeks in NYC metro- quite a few trees leaves are just turning from green to brown and are falling off already........

Yes - 64 % Humidity 60 Dewpoint here On the Middlesex/Union County Border in NJ as of 11 am . Air Quality Index is 50 - Hazardous - whats causing that ?

like any other possible snow event - need more then 1 model and at least 1 models ensemble members consistent with it for at least a couple of days to even consider it.......models are still arguing with each other and even with themselves run to run - but its still fun to post these model runs with blizzards - GFS is King of the long range imaginary Blizzards - what was weird about the storm a couple of weeks ago was the EURO was the first to show an imaginary Blizzard many days in advance..BUT the GFS did not

its amazing how different the GFS and Canadian are along the east coast next weekend GFS has no sign of a storm and Canadian does

it would be welcomed though - can sit outside for awhile in the sun hopefully

so far - BUT we are overdue for a snowy March

I agree and also their warm biases during the winter

when you enter March predicting any weather event in the longer range becomes more difficult because its a changing of seasons - plus if you predict low 40's for a daytime high and it snows your prediction from 10 days prior will bust by 10 degrees at least

That map has no snow on it for a week in NYC if you run it from day 1 - what makes 10 day temperature maps more accurate than the GFS long range snow map ? There have never been any busts ? Never any differences in individual models ?

can you post some long range maps to prove your point ? Here's a snow map in the mean time

how can you predict the daily temps being in the 40's over 10 days in advance ?

if you are going to make statements that contradict what the NWS is predicting at least try and back it up with some evidence ZFP from KOKX

Can you imagine if that model is wrong ?

how do you get 40's and 50's from this on March 1 ?

yes its already Feb 20

Tonight 2 - 6 flakes Likely . Chance of flakes 70 % They used to call the TV Show Seinfeld "The show about nothing " the lasted storm thread was 59 pages about nothing" in NYC metro.. Amazing how all of us including Red Taggers and other color taggers and even the NWS get suckered in most times to believing long range range models..... usually it is the GFS leading the way but this time was the EURO

Sunshine Likely - 70% chance

huh ? precip is above normal this month at Central Park after this past weekend storm and another storm next week