NEG NAO

So the Euro is worse too ? - similar solution as Ukmet - Euro Ai and Canadian - GFS basically alone as of now

the 12Z Ukmet lost the storm altogether far out too sea now - nothing is set in stone yet still have 2 systems to deal with previous to this one - Ukmet shoving the cold air farther south could be a signal for a a colder scenario here next week

Its rather easy to see why it would occur - that HP has to stay in place and block the storm into a favorable path for I-95 and provide the cold air source and be in a position to restrict the onshore warmer winds off the ocean - concentrate on the HP positioning

The 0Z Euro starts as frozen in the metro BUT that HP does not stay anchored like in the GFS run so there is a change over to rain - still to early to predict the outcome except to say the storm chances are increasing and a frozen to rain scenario is favored right now IMO

The OZ UKMET looks to be a closer to the coast track as the HP in southeast Canada is not as strong - starting at least as Frozen in the metro - the Canadian and the Euro AI are offshore tracks

The important feature is the strong enough cold enough HP in southeast Canada staying PUT long enough to keep feeding the cold enough air in and storm track is perfect Benchmark because of this

its not impossible - we are heading into a more favorable pattern for cold/snow events - it has snowed during this time period many times before - worth tracking for sure..........

You are correct - checkout the 12Z AI much different from the 6Z BUT some amature Mets on youtube will probably make a big deal out of the 6Z run

Let's see how the AI model performs in December -will it show some consistency moving forward ?

Which Ensembles ? Just looked at the 12Z GEFS and we have only a couple days of cold outbreaks then when the storm approaches it cuts because of the southeast ridge and no blocking through the 1st week of DEC

Need Neg NAO and that all important strong HP in southeast Canada anchored and a weakening of the southeast ridge - storms will cut west of us before this happens........seems like this is repeated here every year over and over - we all know the routine...........

Starting when? Favorable for cold outbreaks is a guarantee - Snowstorms are not a guarantee YET IMO ......Need blocking to set up

wanna make a bet ?

Looks like the main storm track will stay west of us at least through the Ohio Valley up into Canada through December 5th with quick shots of colder air - progressive pattern with no established cold air YET....Southeast ridge in control as we migrate from MJO phase 6 into 7 and then 8 2nd week of DEC

At least the storm track will not be too far south according to their Precip Outlook and the Polar Vortex is not going to plunge too far south when it is stretched by the Strat Warming Event according to their Monthly Temp Outlook. Heard that the Vortex will be stretching rather than a full displacement............

Don't count your chickens before they hatch - hard to believe there won't be a significant storm in the next 2 weeks with the next cold fronts and much colder air on the way..........

Probably for some of the same reasons other multi- year snow droughts have occurred in NYC - shouldn't be surprised... monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

NWS going strictly by what the models were forecasting ?

heavy snow band moving over Chicago as of 10 am

How did NYC get record breaking snowfall in Nov. 1882 Nov. 1898 and Nov. 1938 ? We are way overdue !

2012 - major Atlantic Ocean hurricane close to Halloween a couple weeks later snowstorm wouldn't be surprising.........

he really covers his you know what with those wide range snowfall amounts ............

I posted the confusion emoji - because I am confused about exactly what triggers creating a storm thread now. I think there should be a storm thread created with emphasis on the Jersey Coast/ Long Island threats especially storm surge/flooding etc. etc. because as previously mentioned some areas have not fully recovered from the last storm 2 weeks ago. ALSO we still don't know exactly where that hurricane will track and its potential impacts on the coast combined with the coastal and or inland LP trough etc. etc. - I think inland areas will experience conditions similar to 2 weeks ago - agree or disagree ?

so you are saying we will have an inland runner pattern this winter similar to this late week storm and snowfall will be limited in the metro this winter ?

This is a definite storm thread worthy event IMO for along the Jersey/Long Island coast because they still haven't fully recovered from the previous storm a couple weeks ago .....as for storm tracks this winter its going to come down to the movement timing of key players on the field during each individual event IMO ............