NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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this recent storm could have been similar but those hours of heavy sleet messed that up
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and what proof do you have that 2026 will behave like 2010, 2011 and 2015 ?
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stronger system will create dynamic cooling...........
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where do you come up with this stuff ?
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0Z runs should be interesting - that northern energy out in the Pacific should begin to get more fully sampled each run.........we hope - closing of weather offices across the country have reduced the number of ballons launched though
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neither has its cousin the GFS - Canadian has stayed with the more amped north solution - Euro has displayed both - thats why Upton has maintained a high amount of uncertainty which it should 5 days out
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Upton AFD says high amount of uncertainty for next potential storm AFD from KOKX
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if you believe the GFS regarding the upcoming miss then you will have to believe this - 1 inch over the next 16 days total qpf - which will help little
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Said yes at 0Z - will it change again with updated fresh data ? 0Z runs get the full load of data - interesting that the Canadian has been close to consistent with the phasing and more intense storm for a few days now
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not north of you only reached 40 here with clouds all day
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No phase at 12Z on euro = suppressed storm
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they are basically all holding on to their original solutions from a couple days ago - IMO still a 50/50 chance of a phase which equals stronger more north widespread event of rain/mix/snow - I would hold off on a storm thread today
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we have about 6 hours today of temps in the 40's - this ice glacier is so thick it takes longer than that to melt more then an inch off of it if that - temps next few days are much cooler - so whatever precip falls this weekend will still be falling on a layer of snow/ice also no bright sun here right now
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This November 2012 example of a system that started with barely cold marginal airmass in place and it was silll Fall ! All of this snow was created by dynamic cooling. This weekend system has the potential of creating a similar dynamic cooling event and this will be in a more favorable mid- February environment with cold water temps also. Also factor in the layer of ice that will still be present on the surface - not much to interfere with the dynamic cooling - except if the systems don't phase Snow storm, November 7-8, 2012 - Storm Summary
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Only storm that wasn't thread the needle was the December 13th storm. December 26 turned to sleet much earlier than expected in many areas and the January storm ended up being many hours of sleet even with the ground level and 850 temps frigid. When treading the needle have to consider the entire temperature profiles up and down the atmosphere and also the dynamics involved with upward motion affecting the temps at various levels of the atmosphere which some folks here are dismissing already for this upcoming weekend potential if this phases to its full potential
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and if you bust ? whats the meteorology behind this statement ?
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To stir the pot even more..........I am sure the rest of the warmsters will be out in full force to tell us why it won't and can't snow in mid - Feb
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3 questions need to be answered 1. Does the northern energy phase with the southern system. 2. How much cold air can this system generate along the I -95 Corridor based on the intensity and upward motion in the atmosphere. 3. Track of the storm
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The two features on this 500 Vort map are still thousands of miles away - the northern stream Vorticity off the Aleutian Islands and the southern system entering the California coast and still need to be fully sampled. These 2 features are forecasted to phase by the Euro and create an intense storm off the mid-Atlantic coast trying to predict precip type and amounts this far out is impossible - also because of all the upward motion created by a phased system they create their own cold air supported by mariginal cold to begin with
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If the Euro and Canadian show a similar snowy solution at 12Z - this snowstorm potential is real IMO since it would be only a few days away - hard to believe the current GFS would lead the way on this. The northern stream relaxing a little is key to prevent suppression. Also this time of the year you can get a snowstorm around here with marginal cold enough air and with the water temps in the lower to some mid 30's that helps also.......
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C
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Which one will come closest ? IMO the Canadian is the most reasonable as of tonight....
