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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. I think some folks are still over reacting to that mix line because of what happened December 26 with the unexpected speed of the warm layer arriving earlier than expected....
  2. your talking a few miles at 60 hours - not going to be reliable at this range
  3. I would count on more adjustments probably south still too early to be sure about anything though IMO. I think the GFS has the best handle on this now and it has been consistent for days now.
  4. no guidance is totally reliable in the world of weather - they all have their flaws.....
  5. trying to pin this mix line down to a few miles is not going to work out this far in advance - so take it with a grain of salt today IMO
  6. that map makes a lot of sense since the Raritan River is considered a natural boundary in some storm setups......
  7. Yes - the further south the primary transfers to the coast the mix line stays further south also..........
  8. yeah 287 all the way down into Middlesex County NJ
  9. thats why its a good idea to remove the snow from driveways and sidewalks before the sleet causes an issue - and it will be easier to do because this will be falling when most are awake
  10. If you want to experience less of a selection and empty shelves in some stores - some people think they have to stock up for weeks - actually if its only going to be a foot or so and most of it falls Sunday before late evening - there should be little trouble on the roads Monday - the equipment they use nowadays is much more efficient then years ago and easier to remove when there won't be much traffic on the roads
  11. noted and recorded - anybody else have snowfall totals ?
  12. ok I wrote that down you said 6 -12 tops - we should have a snowfall accumulation contest
  13. agreed - makes one nauseous reading some of these Doom and Gloom - Debbie Downer posts about a little sleet mixing in cutting the double digit accumulation down a couple inches...I am not going to get involved in that nonsense . THINK POSITIVE !
  14. lets see if those recon flights had any affect on the Euro - didn't seem to make much of a difference with the other models at 12Z
  15. really left their options open - 6 inches to over a foot- BIG DIFFERENCE
  16. snowfall maps at this range are a waste of time and can be dangerous - think about it...........
  17. and the # 1 finer details are the snow-sleet-ice-rain lines
  18. true untill later Friday it started trending west - so still time for adjustments
  19. it amazes me how folks are trying to determine the finer details of this storm such as where the mix line will end up and then give total snowfall and ice amounts when the storm doesn't even begin till Sunday morning . FYI none of us have no idea..
  20. Maybe there is a cutoff time in the evening when the data has to be delivered to whoever inputs it into the models- I have no idea how that works do you?
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