NEG NAO

Anyone else notice that Upton and Mt. Holly in addition to other NWS offices have a new AFD format - using "Key Messages" ??? Hope none of this is AI driven...the computerized voice on their weather radio stations is bad enough AFD from KOKX

I didn't even look at the ensembles 0Z runs because I ran out of time and was spending too much time trying to post maps from the OP runs. Did they show any potential snowfall for a majority of members ? I am satisfied with just a normal snowfall - the 1-3 , 2 -4 , 3-6, 4-8 variety anything over that doesn't grow on trees so to say in the immediate metro so no sense expecting those most of the time. The 06Z GFS for what its off hours run is worth doesn't show the strong wrapped up LP it showed in a previous run - BUT still shows rain changing to snow with a few to several inches Metro wide

Nothing to show at all on the 0Z Euro - no snowfall and little precip after this weekend throughout the entire run

The Euro AI solution is closest to the GFS except it doesn't become a wrapped up bomb along the coast like the GFS and lacking the dynamics to draw in the colder air to produce frozen it is mainly rain right along the coast

at this point it is not possible to determine which model solution if any of them will be close to verifying - but there are vast differences in solutions now past 5 days - until a couple of them get to the point of basic agreement - confidence will increase probably in another 2 or 3 days. It was amazing though how far in advance they agreed on the current systems moving through especially the cold front sweeping across the nation scheduled to pass later Sunday - they had that solution for several days now.

For anyone wondering why each models output is so different - here it is AI Overview No, different weather models don't get the exact same data, and even with similar data, they interpret it differently due to unique physics equations, algorithms, resolution, and data assimilation methods, leading to varied forecasts, which is why meteorologists use multiple models for confidence. While core data (satellites, balloons) is shared, how each model processes it (initialization, grid size, physics) creates distinct outputs.

Ukie is different than both the GFS and Canadian - would like to be under "hood" of these models and see what info - collected data- is being fed into them and how they are programmed to handle it

Thats only part of the equation much more complicated than that.

Totally opposing solutions GFS and Canadian

i would rather wait a few days and have that second round verify on 1/18 -1/19

whats this called ?

so give us your take on the models at 12Z...........

agree - still nothing to get specifically excited about except for the POTENTIAL

Now the Final Jeopardy question. Will The GFS OP still show this snowstorm in NYC Metro during the 12Z GFS Model run ? At least it is now under 1 week away.........

how reliable is this model since they started using it ?

what happened to the warmer 50's forecasted for Saturday earlier this week? Also I wouldn't trust any model solution past a few days in this setup '

-0.2 below normal temps in other words near normal. Snowfall ? Anyones guess at this time.........would love to have a snowfall contest

All the new players will be on the field next week - how those 2 disturbances too the west and south of us interact with each other will determine whether we have a chance of an East Coast Snowstorm. Strong ridging along the west coast helps transport the colder air in from Canada and blocks the Pacific Jet from flooding the country with warmer air which we have experienced recently - keeping that ridge in place and strong is very important

0Z Euro Op only shows a storm coming up the coast missing to the east during about same time periods - have to get within 5 - 7 days to begin to take any of these solutions seriously - although this far out would not want to be in the bullseye yet IMO

especially at 9 days out

I would take the models past 5 and especially 7 days right now regarding individual storms with a grain of salt. There are so many shortwaves running around on the models past 7 days that they don't have an accurate solution yet........

That Alaskan Ridge developing and extending down the west coast will block the Pacific jet and warmer air from flooding the country. It will also direct the very cold air from Northwest Canada southeastward into the eastern half of the country. A possible Gulf up the east coast storm track is favored in these setups.........

For your info 2020 - 2021 was a LaNina winter in NYC and December had 10 inches - Jan 2 inches and Feb 26 inches - I don't even know why i respond to your nonsense ! Next !