NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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All these various models showing different amounts along with all the different forecasters showing different amounts in the same areas makes one wonder - does anyone have a handle on this storm ? Bust Watch just issued..........
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where is the point and click coming from ?
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Starting at 6 AM tomorrow its now casting time and we should stop hugging the models and use real time data and the trends
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obviously Mt. Holly is discounting the HRRR as it shows heavier snowfall/sleet accumuation where they downgraded the warning
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this is obviously not as extreme - but I still consider myself here in extreme northern Middlesex County under a Winter Storm Warning because Upton still has Union County under one .........
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The bust potential is above average with this storm - because forecasters are playing the snow vs. mix game especially around central NJ
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a low is showing up near hatteras ????
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What's up with Upton - the forecast says little or no snow accumulation for NYC BUT the discussion says chances of accumulating snow are increasing ? ZFP from KOKX
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yes and when is the last time we had 2 Winter Storm threads active at the same time ? As for this late week event only thing that I have high confidence in today is the precip shield will not miss to the south - still low confidence in precip types region wide and amounts.........
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You can read all about it here starting with this thread from 15 years ago
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yes and since its multiple models trending that way and its only 5 days away chances are good we will have at least some sort of frozen event - still way too early for details..........
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agreed and its only 5 days away....
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The problem with the Euro is that HP in Canada is not holding in place compared to the GFS - the LP is allowed to move further north
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IF's And's or But's -all involving where that HP is in southeast Canada and the strength of it throughout the event- pattern is changing back into a colder one along with more blocking developing
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seriously - this official chart contains those inaccurate measurements - not good monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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then why hasn't the problem been solved and corrected ?
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I think it has to be an employee of the NWS - anyone on here live near Central Park and can measure close to where they get their measurements from ? maybe Walt has some more info on the measurements and why they are always low
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doesn't anyone go where they measure when the snow is falling and try to determine whats causing the constant low totals ?
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even in NYC immediate metro ? whats it going to be well inland ? -
remember - this is forecasted to be a wet snow similar to the beginning of the last event and even a couple of inches will stick to everything = power lines - trees - etc etc so it will look more more threatening then it might end up to be
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and if the precip arrives a couple hours earlier that # 1 area will be further south and east and if it is delayed a few hours arriving that # 3 area will expand further north that why I am sticking with 1 -4 for my area as of now - this is a perfect example of threading the needle..........should be interesting how most school districts handle this because many have early dismissal on Tuesday for the holidays - can't have a delayed opening on those days because it won't count as a 4 hour day........
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when you see something like this - it shows the models still haven't figured out how to handle this situation along with the NAM showing little or nothing . Need to get closer to get a better idea............
