NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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not north of you only reached 40 here with clouds all day
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No phase at 12Z on euro = suppressed storm
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they are basically all holding on to their original solutions from a couple days ago - IMO still a 50/50 chance of a phase which equals stronger more north widespread event of rain/mix/snow - I would hold off on a storm thread today
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we have about 6 hours today of temps in the 40's - this ice glacier is so thick it takes longer than that to melt more then an inch off of it if that - temps next few days are much cooler - so whatever precip falls this weekend will still be falling on a layer of snow/ice also no bright sun here right now
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This November 2012 example of a system that started with barely cold marginal airmass in place and it was silll Fall ! All of this snow was created by dynamic cooling. This weekend system has the potential of creating a similar dynamic cooling event and this will be in a more favorable mid- February environment with cold water temps also. Also factor in the layer of ice that will still be present on the surface - not much to interfere with the dynamic cooling - except if the systems don't phase Snow storm, November 7-8, 2012 - Storm Summary
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Only storm that wasn't thread the needle was the December 13th storm. December 26 turned to sleet much earlier than expected in many areas and the January storm ended up being many hours of sleet even with the ground level and 850 temps frigid. When treading the needle have to consider the entire temperature profiles up and down the atmosphere and also the dynamics involved with upward motion affecting the temps at various levels of the atmosphere which some folks here are dismissing already for this upcoming weekend potential if this phases to its full potential
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and if you bust ? whats the meteorology behind this statement ?
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To stir the pot even more..........I am sure the rest of the warmsters will be out in full force to tell us why it won't and can't snow in mid - Feb
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3 questions need to be answered 1. Does the northern energy phase with the southern system. 2. How much cold air can this system generate along the I -95 Corridor based on the intensity and upward motion in the atmosphere. 3. Track of the storm
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The two features on this 500 Vort map are still thousands of miles away - the northern stream Vorticity off the Aleutian Islands and the southern system entering the California coast and still need to be fully sampled. These 2 features are forecasted to phase by the Euro and create an intense storm off the mid-Atlantic coast trying to predict precip type and amounts this far out is impossible - also because of all the upward motion created by a phased system they create their own cold air supported by mariginal cold to begin with
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If the Euro and Canadian show a similar snowy solution at 12Z - this snowstorm potential is real IMO since it would be only a few days away - hard to believe the current GFS would lead the way on this. The northern stream relaxing a little is key to prevent suppression. Also this time of the year you can get a snowstorm around here with marginal cold enough air and with the water temps in the lower to some mid 30's that helps also.......
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C
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Which one will come closest ? IMO the Canadian is the most reasonable as of tonight....
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and then you have to consider the strong LP along the mid- atlantic coast shown on the 12Z Canadian - lets see if the Canadian shows that at 0Z
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Next weekends event is not set in stone - amazing how many are assuming its just going to be plain rain........
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and setting up a FB page and website and promoting yourself as an expert and getting people to pay you for your services is even easier !
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Probably similar to just about everyone else - right most of the time but busts sometimes - Collier holds a Bachelor's degree in Meteorology and a Bachelor of Science in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and The University of Tulsa..
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That's on the table of possibilities but also there has been mention of this being an active back door cold front season which could lower temperatures in the northern mid atlantic and northeast - so it could be milder than average south of the Mason Dixon Line but much cooler north of it- thats also on the table
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any evidence ?
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continuing the winter long trend of model guidance getting cooler as we approach the event.........
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than post some
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12Z Canadian strong blocking - models are beginning to agree that this won't cut
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Roads around here are not blacktop anymore - they are grey/whitetop - pothole season right around the corner..........
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Storm is not going to cut past the lower Ohio Valley because of all the blocking up north - it's going to be a Miller B where it reforms somewhere off the Mid- Atlantic coast and all the fine details are not obvious yet more questions than answers at the moment . As for Steve he has a knack for busts in his forecast just like many others online - not that there is anything wrong with that .
