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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    this is a now casting event - models should be taken with a grain of salt especially since they are not receiving full data input since the gov shutdown began
  2. NEG NAO
    go on google and you will see articles explaining how weather models are not getting the full data from some weather ballons not being launched since the government shutdown began.
  3. NEG NAO
    NJ State of Emergency Office of the Governor | Acting Governor Way Declares State of Emergency Ahead of Dangerous Nor’easter Storm
  4. NEG NAO
    This is beginning to look like a moderate rain event north and west of Monmouth County NJ - with 1 - 2 inches long duration event and with the ground being bone dry from the drought conditions the last couple of months it will soak up that 1 -2 inches fast and there should be little flooding concerns unless you are prone to coastal flooding which is being caused by long duration onshore flow and high winds............
  5. NEG NAO
    can't trust the NAM past 60 hours but here is the total qpf most of which still falls past 60 hours
  6. NEG NAO
    Problem is the cold enough air for snow would not stay locked in with a track coming onshore into the Del Marva especially for areas south of I -80............that would be a snow to rain track for NYC
  7. NEG NAO
    along with some of those precip amounts - this storm center will have a hard time getting past the Del Marva and will probably spin itself out because of the HP blocking it.........
  8. NEG NAO
    those dunes they created on some of the beaches in NJ after Sandy will be tested during this storm because of the added King Tides thing and the Moon thing adding to the levels.........
  9. NEG NAO
    the Euro AI is probably closer to reality with amounts
  10. NEG NAO
    why no Canadian model runs on Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal ?
  11. NEG NAO
    I agree -thats been the trend the last few systems - plus these frontal systems are moving fast and trying to pinpoint who will get how much is like throwing paint at a wall.....as for the coastal storm early next week placement and strength of the HP to the north is critical
  12. NEG NAO
    Its becoming obvious that the overall very dry conditions will continue in the NYC metro for the most part until further notice ..........
  13. NEG NAO
    12Z Canadian now keeps storm offshore for the most part
  14. NEG NAO
    waiting for the first model to jump ship with a miss or a light to moderate event here............very difficult to break a long dry spell especially in such a dramatic way....
  15. NEG NAO
  16. NEG NAO
  17. NEG NAO
    We ran out of days in the month to break the record but we wouldn't have done it tomorrow anyways with temps much cooler on the way...........
  18. NEG NAO
    How dry we will most likely be the next few weeks in NYC metro- quite a few trees leaves are just turning from green to brown and are falling off already........
  19. NEG NAO
    Yes - 64 % Humidity 60 Dewpoint here On the Middlesex/Union County Border in NJ as of 11 am . Air Quality Index is 50 - Hazardous - whats causing that ?
  20. NEG NAO
    like any other possible snow event - need more then 1 model and at least 1 models ensemble members consistent with it for at least a couple of days to even consider it.......models are still arguing with each other and even with themselves run to run - but its still fun to post these model runs with blizzards - GFS is King of the long range imaginary Blizzards - what was weird about the storm a couple of weeks ago was the EURO was the first to show an imaginary Blizzard many days in advance..BUT the GFS did not
  21. NEG NAO
    its amazing how different the GFS and Canadian are along the east coast next weekend GFS has no sign of a storm and Canadian does
  22. NEG NAO
    it would be welcomed though - can sit outside for awhile in the sun hopefully
  23. NEG NAO
    so far - BUT we are overdue for a snowy March
  24. NEG NAO
    I agree and also their warm biases during the winter
  25. NEG NAO
    when you enter March predicting any weather event in the longer range becomes more difficult because its a changing of seasons - plus if you predict low 40's for a daytime high and it snows your prediction from 10 days prior will bust by 10 degrees at least
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