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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    true and the GFS ensembles disagree with its OP
  2. NEG NAO
    consistency and agreement with other models is key in any event iMO
  3. NEG NAO
    I consider the GFS solution unlikely as of now because of little support from other model guidance and the history of this model showing extreme solutions at this range in the past -also the GEFS disagrees with it
  4. NEG NAO
    why ?
  5. NEG NAO
    Ratio's at least 15:1 is what is going to make this a significant storm here - nobody is expecting a KU event - 8 - 12 inches with a half to three quarters inch QPF seems reasonable to me from most guidance so far - of course this could change one way or the other - keep our biases at the door and have an open mind...
  6. NEG NAO
    once again use the 15:1 ratio which is easily reached with such cold temps over 8 or 9 inches in most areas
  7. NEG NAO
    15:1 ratio = a foot or more of snow in most of the metro
  8. NEG NAO
    I'd like to hear what you consider significant considering the high ratio potential with this storm this far north
  9. NEG NAO
    so its holding steady close to yesterdays solution thats what we want to see in a model
  10. NEG NAO
    To make statements like this so far in advance you should present some evidence backing up your theory
  11. NEG NAO
    we seem to experience this GFS OP nonsense practically every event its the King of the extreme solutions
  12. NEG NAO
    I think the AIGFS has inherited some of the bad traits of the regular GFS
  13. NEG NAO
    GFS many times seems to be by itself especially at this range - too overdone or underdone with amounts
  14. NEG NAO
    Ukie precip at 0Z run makes it all the way to southern VT. NH. BUT the snowfall map attached is only 10:1 ratio . Ratio's will be higher .
  15. NEG NAO
    I don't think its a big deal - its not like we are trying to rewrite the Constitution---lol
  16. NEG NAO
    why don't you just add a few more days to the thread title make it 1 /23 -1/31 - I was just reading the 2010 thread before Boxing Day storm and one thread had a longer date range, This way we can just talk generally about the arctic outbreak and cover the multiple storm threats.
  17. NEG NAO
  18. NEG NAO
    What are Northern Mid-Atlantic and New England in the dark blue for ? its not clear if its the cold or snow or both
  19. NEG NAO
    Freezing rain all the way down to the central South Carolina coast ? really ?
  20. NEG NAO
    Thanks - I also like your discussion write up in the new thread - very well written.
  21. NEG NAO
    Lets not forget this weekend is the 10th Anniversary of the January 2016 Blizzard January 22-24, 2016 Blizzard
  22. NEG NAO
    Euro was late to the show for this past weekend event too. Kept showing out to sea.........up until Friday
  23. NEG NAO
    well Feb 2010 had 36.9 in NYC so anything is possible
  24. NEG NAO
    Snow storm, February 5-6, 2010 - Storm Summary
  25. NEG NAO
    I was over at Ray's archives and there were 5 snowstorms listed in Feb. 2010 - which one you talking about ?
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