NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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its impossible to determine the exact setup that will be in place the middle and end of next week - models are inaccurate at that range
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still 10 days away chances it will verify are low at this point
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it probably will not verify because its 228 hours away
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believe it or not the snow is also being absorbed into the warmer grass/dirt underneath which has been very dry and needs the liquid thus reducing the snow pack- thats why my basement sump pump is still going off at least a few times a day
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its been like that most of the winter except in early January - models allow the warming to reach us in the longer range then when we get closer and closer to it they reduce its impact here
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Better ask the bosses.........
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Models are all signaling that there will be a winter storm(s) coming up in the next week or 2 - IMO there is a good chance most of the region receives at least 6 inches total for the month.
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Odds favor at least a few above average March snowfalls the rest of the way through the decade - maybe 1 or more much above normal.
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you should have said "Not saying this will even appear on the 0Z run" - not that there is anything wrong with that...
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relaxing from an extreme cold period and just going back to closer to normal for a few days before the next shorter extreme cold period beginning later this week. After that is anyone's guess IMO
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Euro snow hole
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why is Newark 36 and Millville 30 at 2 PM ? RWR from KOKX
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Central Park at 31 at 1 PM RWR from KOKX
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some forecasters were mentioning it would fall below 0 in this current extended arctic outbreak - this next one over the weekend will last only a couple days so odds of Central Park going below zero as of today are not favorable IMO -suburban locations have a better chance - plus where is the thermometer they use located and how much snow cover is left there ?
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I didn't realize the low 30's was 35 degrees - even if it reached 35 for a couple of hours then dipped into the 20's in the evening there would be very little snow melt - and thats the forecast for the entire week - low 30's for highs ZFP from KOKX
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Most of that here falls on 2/13-2/14
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hard too believe that will happen so close after that Arctic cold shot next weekend - especially with the snow/ice still on the ground and the narrow window it has before the next cold front - would expect freezing issues close to ground level - potential ice storm.
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then a few days later a rain storm ? do you buy that ?
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I have had enough of this winter already because of the extreme cold - very unusual around these parts for it to be lasting so long and could be record breaking for the length of tme at or below freezing
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have about 8 - 10 here but the top layer of an inch or 2 is ice - it is slowly getting flatter - the sun, wind evaporation and gravity reduces it slowly day by day
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not seeing it anywhere -in the short term - was just "saying" BUT chances are by mid - month we will touch 40 again....
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and it is going against the CPC outlook of well below normal temps on the 9th and these models are saying this at day 9 -AI models can't be trusted in the longer range yet
