NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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seems like most of it is north of I-78 again
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Euro July 4th looking HOT but how hot and where in the region ? Other problem may be we are located in the "Ring of Fire" with storms on the edge of the heat dome
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Latest EURO JULY 3rd -HEAT INDEX
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Questions still remain about how far north the heatwave will reach next week with much cooler air just to our north and east
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the reason for this stream of moisture is a stationary front sitting from northeast of Scranton down through northern Maryland and precip now is staying mainly west of the NJ Turnpike and is encountering drier air as it is moving northeast and becoming lighter in northern NJ - so it is doubtful that heavier precip in Mayland makes it this far north
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more liquid steaming towards the area from PA - but how much of it will survive the trip ? Seems the conveyor belt of moisture is drying up somewhat as it moves into central NJ....
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just as predicted the sun is shining through here in Northern Middlesex County NJ setting the stage for the next round of Heavy Rain/Storms racing this way from PA This group of storms features a Tornado TOR from KPHI
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where is that storm and where is that tall white building ?
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and if you look at the satellite looks like more hazy sunshine moving in behind which will destabalize the atmosphere and create more storms
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That storm has no severe warning is moving very fast
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This storm in Ocean/Monmouth has possible Tornado SVR from KPHI
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you are right on the southern edge of the severe SVR from KOKX
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Severe warnings Monmouth, Ocean, Mercer, Burlington Counties SVR from KPHI
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most of it is dormant - the thing that gets me is these lawn cutting services still come around regardless using their high powered ride around mowers with a cloud of dust folllowing them and destroying your lawn in the process - I just use a weed wacker carefully for any weeds and higher grass. Also you are not supposed to fertilize your lawn when it is dormant
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Flood Watch 1-3 inches expected FFA from KOKX HRR has been all over the place with the precip/storm placements in the metro- same with the NAM - definite NOWCASTING event
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Total disagreement amongst the 2 mentioned models
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and as the 12Z and 18Z NAM shows the difference in different areas - no consistency - thats why Don's forecast of a 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches without saying where is the best way to go.......
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compare the 12Z NAM to the 18Z NAM and you will see it has no idea how much and where the rainfall will occur IMO using models this far out will not verify. It will be all about now casting tomorrow
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and here is the 12Z NAM models are all over the place typical of a system where T-storms will be the main heavy rain maker and its impossible to determine where they will go - there will be a wide range of totals region wide
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GFS is very wet ? IMO when this system arrives it will not be one solid area of precip - it will be a more showery system with T-storms possible only areas that will see over 1 inch will be the few that get the t-storms The system will not arrive till afternoon and by then daytime heating will support T-storms
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0Z Canadian and GFS- as we move closer to the event once again the trend is dryer
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IMO there is going to be a wide range of totals in the region - anywhere from a few inches (where T-storms occur) to less than an inch in unknown areas.
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the higher end amounts will be in areas that get the thunderstorms predicted - going to be a wide range of totals region wide as of now.........
