NEG NAO

2-3 inches in immediate NYC metro if the Euro is correct is not alot of rain - we had more than that in several thunderstorms in the summer in a few hours - apparently ground conditions regarding saturation is much different region wide here in north central NJ ground is dry as a bone currently

the rainfall amounts are of no concern in the immediate metro its the flooding on the coast that is the main concern and also the wind BUT without a saturated ground - less chance of up rooted trees just branches falling

also on EURO heaviest rain is offshore and in southeast New England

this proves my point from a few posts above that models at 12Z are all over the place 12Z Euro way south coming inland - low is getting vertically stacked and weakening too

heavy rain is in eastern PA where its not supossed to be

yeah post it 12Z euro just started running on Tidbits and Pivitol

50 miles makes a big difference especially for my area in north central NJ

I posted 3 different 12Z models 2 posts above to prove my point - now its your turn to prove yours

12Z models are all over the place with the exact tracks and timing and when and where the most intense part of the system is possibly going to make a left turn into the coast - many more questions than answers for any particular area of the region as of this afternoon. All that is certain is there is going to be flooding and high winds up and down the coast - rainfall amounts are the biggest question mark - along with the highest wind locations several miles inland especially.

12Z Canadian is dry west of Long Island- except some wrap around showers on the back end - HP at first is weaker and further west near Lake Superior allowing the storm to get a few miles west of the GFS

bring your surf board

12Z GFS is a complete miss to the east - very little precip west of Long Island 12Z Icon is an impactful storm for most of the metro - moderate to heavy rain The reason for the difference is the placement of the HP in Canada - the HP on the Icon stays north of the storm blocking it into the coast - HP on the GFS is northwest of us in south Canada - not blocking the storm movement to the north and preventing it from getting too close to the coast One constant is the strong winds - wouldn't be surprised if there are high wind warnings issued

only 12Z (yesterday) and 0Z map posted - regardless as of now all the significant impact will be from Long Island up into eastern New England regarding precip totals - wind and coastal flooding will have a high impact along the coast all the way down through the mid Atlantic region

how do you define great ? It has less then 1 inch west of the Hudson for the most part

what are you talking about ???? the 0Z EPS trended east with heavier precip from its 12Z yesterday run !!

Even the EPS moves the heavier precip off shore for the most part except from Long Island into eastern New England where the most significant impact from this storm will verify most likely at the moment - but things trending more towards the GFS/Canadian solution west of Long Island this run at least

0Z Euro - what happened ?

0Z GEFS

0Z AI GFS OZ ICON

0Z UKMET

0Z GFS - models all over the place - wide range of total precip west of Long Island through 120 hours 0Z Canadian

GFS/Canadian/Ukie Vs. Euro's - the HP location will have the final say IMO Even with the strong NE flow today the warm water temps and breaks of sun allowed North Central NJ temps this afternoon to reach 70 expect the same right into the weekend - Upton not expecting much rain this weekend only 40% chance of showers according to PM update ZFP from KOKX Quote