NEG NAO

Christmas Eve 2025

Upton is downplaying the late weekend system - maybe some light snow friday night

what is a "tone" of snow "- ??? i don't think we'll worry about mid unless we are overhead " -- what are you talking about ????

12Z GFS and 12Z Euro Very Close

MJO is now in the Phase 8 COD - so other factors are having a larger influence on the weather models.........Also it seems that the MJO gets jammed up inside the Phase 8

Another positive signal Euro AI onboard- the Phase 8 MJO is now close to or into the COD so its weak not sure where it will be on the 15th - it is moving fast

it does look more promising as of 12Z today of at least a light to moderate event later in the weekend and maybe something light before that later in the week but for the late weekend system - it still is more than 5 days out so If it shows up starting at 0Z tonight I will get interested and it has to show up on more than 1 model . As for the "idiots" with the weenies just put them on ignore they are the ones which BX Engine mentioned yesterday in a post....

I am sure Virginia wasn't looking for average or above average snowfall and they are getting closer to it and its only December 8 - totally unexpected - could easily have happened around these parts = also these Clipper systems are not being handled well by the models or the arctic air - have to take them one at a time - this supposed warmup Christmas week is suspect too at this point

Upton has highs in Upper 20's remainder of today

are you talking about your area in Northwest NJ or the entire NYC metro from Ocean County up to Ulster County in NY ?

what are you going to do with the snowmans weenies ? Lets see if the storm shows up on the 0ZGFS and other models ? Or in 18Z we trust ?

first of all you know for a fact I am not gloom and doom all the time as we have agreed many times on here. Secondly the only guidance I can believe right now is what is being produced as of today - of course with borderline temps shown today can trend colder in coming days. And of course our time is probably coming as seasonal trends begin to favor more frozen solutions as we get deeper into the winter season.

Show us the guidance that shows that on the 12th

Borderline temps - could be similar to last weeks event - need any HP in southeast Canada to stay in place with blocking - not showing that yet - just a LP departing up there

would be nice if you explained what "patience" means to you ?

AI Overview Clipper weather refers to fast-moving winter storms, primarily the Alberta Clipper, which originate near Alberta, Canada, bringing rapid swings from cold to colder, light snow (1-3 inches), strong winds (30-50 mph), and biting wind chills as they sweep southeast across the U.S. Northern Plains and Great Lakes. While usually light, they can cause bigger snowfalls with lake-effect enhancement or if they intensify, sometimes becoming Saskatchewan Screamers or Manitoba Maulers (stronger variants). Key Types & Characteristics Alberta Clipper: The classic type, forming near Alberta, moving fast, bringing cold, wind, and light snow. Saskatchewan Screamer / Manitoba Mauler: More intense versions of clippers, often with more snow and stronger winds, developing over Saskatchewan or Manitoba. What They Bring Snow: Typically 1-3 inches, but can be 3-6+ inches, especially near the Great Lakes (lake-effect snow). Wind: Strong, gusty winds (35-50 mph) are common, leading to severe wind chills. Temperature: A noticeable and sharp drop in temperatures. Speed: Very fast-moving, often crossing regions in a day or two. How They Differ from Other Storms Colorado Low: Slower-moving systems that form in Colorado, often bringing much heavier, longer-lasting snow and blizzard conditions. Miller A/B Storms: Coastal storms that develop off the Southeast coast (Miller A) or the Gulf (Miller B), drawing significant moisture and potentially causing major Nor'easters, unlike drier clippers.

need one to dig more and slow down going south of us - these can give us 2-4 or 3-5

Only down to 19 here - no snow cover

First of all - Ocean County NJ should be in the Philadelphia region - and the farther north and west counties in NY and PA should be included in a new North and West Forum IMO. Variations in the weather conditions are too great from south to north and west in that map to be included in one forum (especially during the winter months)............But like I said before we have had this discussion previously and it is what it is.......OR we can set up the forums similar to the NWS does - Upton and Mount Holly - never could understand that concept...........

Would rather have snow the last week of December rather then the first week - many times when it has snowed early in the month it warms up towards the end of the month and its mild with no snow on the ground Christmas week .........last year was considered to be a "White Christmas" believe it or not with the little snow that was on the ground in most areas of the immediate metro...........This year the falling SOI and the fading LaNina supported by MJO in phase 8 should activate the southern jet BUT all the players on the field have to align just right to produce a snowstorm here........also another Strat warming event is going to unfold the second half of the month so this pattern should extend well into January.............

Belleayre should be considered to be Upstate NY not NYC Metro - I know we have had this discussion before - most of NYC metro doesn't look like mid-winter with most of us not seeing a flake yet........

Its only December 4th - our break will come soon enough - first chance early next week- for some reason here in north middlesex county nj they are spraying the roads with that liquid brine crap or whatever you call it again - never can be too careful I guess those water temps are causing the lower level to still produce liquid even with the upper levels cold enough for frozen close to the coast

as soon as the clouds start rolling in later the temps will stop falling and might even rise a couple of degrees towards morning.