NEG NAO

bring your surf board

12Z GFS is a complete miss to the east - very little precip west of Long Island 12Z Icon is an impactful storm for most of the metro - moderate to heavy rain The reason for the difference is the placement of the HP in Canada - the HP on the Icon stays north of the storm blocking it into the coast - HP on the GFS is northwest of us in south Canada - not blocking the storm movement to the north and preventing it from getting too close to the coast One constant is the strong winds - wouldn't be surprised if there are high wind warnings issued

only 12Z (yesterday) and 0Z map posted - regardless as of now all the significant impact will be from Long Island up into eastern New England regarding precip totals - wind and coastal flooding will have a high impact along the coast all the way down through the mid Atlantic region

how do you define great ? It has less then 1 inch west of the Hudson for the most part

what are you talking about ???? the 0Z EPS trended east with heavier precip from its 12Z yesterday run !!

Even the EPS moves the heavier precip off shore for the most part except from Long Island into eastern New England where the most significant impact from this storm will verify most likely at the moment - but things trending more towards the GFS/Canadian solution west of Long Island this run at least

0Z Euro - what happened ?

0Z GEFS

0Z AI GFS OZ ICON

0Z UKMET

0Z GFS - models all over the place - wide range of total precip west of Long Island through 120 hours 0Z Canadian

GFS/Canadian/Ukie Vs. Euro's - the HP location will have the final say IMO Even with the strong NE flow today the warm water temps and breaks of sun allowed North Central NJ temps this afternoon to reach 70 expect the same right into the weekend - Upton not expecting much rain this weekend only 40% chance of showers according to PM update ZFP from KOKX Quote

the strong HP is in a better position north of the storm in Canada blocking the LP back into the coast further south which the Canadian and GFS does not do with the HP a few hundred miles southwest of the Euro position

still enough time for anything to happen in regards to the track of the LP IMO - Upton and Mount Holly leaving their options open - greatest risk with this is coastal flooding

its only 90 hours away - in another day and a half we will be tracking it with the Mesoscale models

the location of the HP in Canada is what will decide the track of the LP - the HP on the 6Z Euro-AI is a few hundred miles north northeast of the GFS and Canadian location - makes a difference EC-AIFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits - go to hour 120

I disagree right now because of the 12Z Canadian and the location of the strong HP

The Canadian at 12Z basically agrees with it - that HP in far southeast near our border in Canada keeps us in the clear

have to agree with you there - no way are boardwalks going to be ripped up and piers with roller coasters going to collapse into the Atlantic.

Kashi a weather model ?

did you expect yesterday to be partly sunny and mild a couple days out ? Saturday is still 4 days away - that HP in southeast Canada will control where the storm goes and I don't see it weakening to let the offshore storm backup towards the coast

clearing as HP is moving in -

nessun problema

Its going to be a perfect beach day........storm is out to sea

we are experiecing an onshore flow at one level the clouds to our east moving in - BUT those clouds to the west are also approaching making things very complicated