NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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Why don't you mention that it is a total turn around from the 0Z run and too far out for an OP run to even consider . There also should be a rule around here that if you post a model run analysis you must post graphics
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How do you figure we are down in the score ? Also there is no chance to pick up a couple inches region wide the next 7 days ? Remember we had above normal snowfall in December 7 + inches in CP NYC and more in surrounding areas I had 9.5 - I am right where I should be with accumulation for the season so far
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Cold signals ahead
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Somebody should go over to the January 2026 thread and take all the BS posts about January snow and cold chances being over and put them here in the banter thread- its wrecking that thread. Also I think some people have multiple accounts and just posting nonsense posts to cause problems in the main threads...
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In this type of pattern models are not going to pick up on any storm threats till 5 - 7 days out and Clippers and Miller B's might prevail - not Gulf Lows for now ..but one never knows for sure
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Get ready for some way below normal temps Don's predicted 0.2 below normal for the month might end up too warm !
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this won't pull it down ? Check out the last graphic - 45 Below just north of the great lakes - impressive and the flow will be directed towards here from that source region and a few degrees below normal for a period of time will bring thos above averages down to near normal by the end of the month or below !
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From folklore to science: The 'January Thaw' is real, as the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states are about to find out | Cornell Chronicle
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especially since its still 3 days away
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"Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). " That quote is from Don's post from yesterday - How you consider 0.2 below normal "warm" is beyond me.
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BX said no thread earlier - and I agree .
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why does it say I don't have permission to see it ?
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You should know all about that. Also explain the Euro more or less siding with it for the late week storm.
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Strange snow totals - BUT its GFS and Euro OP against the Canadian and Icon - on to the ensembles....
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so you are a believer ?
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Canadian 12Z run is completely different next weekend to from the GFS
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12Z Canadian is completely different then the GFS
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Anybody else think this GFS solution at 12Z is looking weird ? Storm track is strange BUT that high in SE Canada is in the right place as the storm is intensifying offshore. Trough seems to have a negative tilt
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improve how so ? Same as the Euro - little snow
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When is the last time we had a snowstorm in NYC Metro with the MJO in Phase 6 ? As of tonight have to go with the best model the Euro Solution with the key players in the wrong positions which equals just about nothing here.
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no its not if you are talking later this week=BUT don't make a big deal about it could change
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NOT that it matters this far out BUT the Euro AI is too warm in the Metro
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Inaccurate forecast that far out - thats why we have to keep our options open about later next week
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wait 1 more day after 12Z Sunday runs IF there is more consensus with other models - disregard GFS snow totals now.......
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all I can say is that the GFS keeps returning to the major snowstorm solution and its doing it at around day 5 -6 so it has to be considered but only taken seriously if any other models start leaning that way - Canadian is not at 12Z - Icon looks like it is considering it Also the GFS totals are way overdone IMO
