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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    still not certain what is causing it to make the turn from the Gulf up to Hatteras then fade out to sea - maybe once the system comes on shore out west in a couple model cycles MAYBE new data will begin to change that back to closer to the coast at this LAT...
  2. NEG NAO
    at least 5 in the benchmark zone still
  3. NEG NAO
    exactly !
  4. NEG NAO
    Today is going to be the day of mass confusion here as the models will be all over the place or all begin to miss when the LP makes a hard right turn out to sea
  5. NEG NAO
  6. NEG NAO
    at 84 hours they all look good wait and see what happens with the LP once it passes Hatteras....
  7. NEG NAO
    please explain why ????? seems to me everything looks great with the track until it gets past Hatteras and then fades out to sea- whats causing that ?
  8. NEG NAO
    read Walts post above - he is thinking a 2 - 6" powder event - right now thats the most reasonable prediction unless new data today proves otherwise..of course IMO
  9. NEG NAO
    its still a moderate snowstorm at least for the immediate metro - and still could be more then that - doubt it will be less then what we are seeing modeled now on the EURO IMO - Overall I think the Euro's have the best handle on this entire situation right now....
  10. NEG NAO
    individual members all over the place - that tells us something - they are still going to adjust to more of a consensus as we inch closer to showtime
  11. NEG NAO
  12. NEG NAO
    well if the confluence is less - what is causing the sharp turn the last 24 hours ?
  13. NEG NAO
  14. NEG NAO
    I see it - .5 seems more realistic IMO right now BUT that .5 can easily go back to much higher amounts similar to what last night was showing IMO - only time will tell
  15. NEG NAO
    I wasn't expecting large scale improvements yet until this current storm exits
  16. NEG NAO
    still keeps us in the ballgame but east gets more then west metro of course
  17. NEG NAO
    only 50 -75 mile adjustment to the west makes a big difference in the immediate metro - must be the confluence that turns this east all of a sudden when it reaches the Delmarva region
  18. NEG NAO
    LP is stronger coming up the coast as compared to 24 hours ago
  19. NEG NAO
    important to watch the locations and strength of the HP's to the north and west and also exactly where the 50/50 low sets up and its strength at hour 48 that LP exiting to the north and east is at 965 quite strong
  20. NEG NAO
    the current dynamics of this current weekend storm being so strong could be be affecting the data that is being gathered and injected into the models - once the playing field is cleared ( storm exits)so to say the models will have updated data and no interference from this system IMO
  21. NEG NAO
    apparently they are all gathering the similar data the last run or 2 that is changing the models forecast output - but they are programmed differently which causes different solutions sometimes
  22. NEG NAO
    would really like to know which gathered data that was put into the latest model runs caused these drastic shifts to the east
  23. NEG NAO
    Feb 11, 1983 wasn't locked in till a day or so before.....
  24. NEG NAO
    perfect example why one can't put all their eggs into the GFS OP basket
  25. NEG NAO
    Nothing was reduced today in fact Upton in their afternoon AFD just said the chances of a MECS has increased by way of snow showers and lowering the chances overall to 60 % down form yesterdays 70 % chance of snow - got to cover yourself both ways...
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