NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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yes and since its multiple models trending that way and its only 5 days away chances are good we will have at least some sort of frozen event - still way too early for details..........
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agreed and its only 5 days away....
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The problem with the Euro is that HP in Canada is not holding in place compared to the GFS - the LP is allowed to move further north
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IF's And's or But's -all involving where that HP is in southeast Canada and the strength of it throughout the event- pattern is changing back into a colder one along with more blocking developing
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seriously - this official chart contains those inaccurate measurements - not good monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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then why hasn't the problem been solved and corrected ?
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I think it has to be an employee of the NWS - anyone on here live near Central Park and can measure close to where they get their measurements from ? maybe Walt has some more info on the measurements and why they are always low
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doesn't anyone go where they measure when the snow is falling and try to determine whats causing the constant low totals ?
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even in NYC immediate metro ? whats it going to be well inland ? -
remember - this is forecasted to be a wet snow similar to the beginning of the last event and even a couple of inches will stick to everything = power lines - trees - etc etc so it will look more more threatening then it might end up to be
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and if the precip arrives a couple hours earlier that # 1 area will be further south and east and if it is delayed a few hours arriving that # 3 area will expand further north that why I am sticking with 1 -4 for my area as of now - this is a perfect example of threading the needle..........should be interesting how most school districts handle this because many have early dismissal on Tuesday for the holidays - can't have a delayed opening on those days because it won't count as a 4 hour day........
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when you see something like this - it shows the models still haven't figured out how to handle this situation along with the NAM showing little or nothing . Need to get closer to get a better idea............
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not according to SnowGoose - he wrote previously-- "The airmass believe it or not is better than it was with the last event. At least to start. Its 32/13 on the NAM at 12Z. The bigger risk with this is it just is largely too far north in the end."
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why are you posting a second link blend of models 6 hr snowfall that ends at 12Z 12/24 ? Plus its just not the GFS showing greater amounts
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seems like a few models are shifting the colder air south along with more moisture and interaction with the warm front to the south 1 -4 inches still on the table as of now IMO...
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I still think any of these solutions is possible since we are still closer to 60 hours from the event - we are right on the border of the cold enough air and significant enough precip - could go either way.......
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IMO it is still too early to say if this is accurate or not - the last storm over performed in many areas - this will end up being a nowcasting event just like the last one.......
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You can clearly see where the cold front is on radar racing east from east of Williamsport PA down through Baltimore MD
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what was their low temperature this week so far ? Check out if they have a record temperature spread record for a 1 week period. Right here in Central NJ my low has been 18 this week and now its 58.............
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SVR from KPHI It mentions that these storms contain little or no lightning - BUT 60 MPH gusts
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If this continues to show up on the models for Tuesday the road departments will begin spreading the salt/liquid ice melter or whatever Monday afternoon and we begin the cycle all over again
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Upton believes it ZFP from KOKX
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After much above normal temps across most the USA next week - we get back into a more normal winter pattern as blocking over Greenland has more influence later next week and beyond - individual storms yet to be determined.........
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12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it up
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what is it if you remove the 17 -19th and calculate from the 20th to the 31st ?
