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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    and a very wide range of weather conditions usually in that 75 mile radius because of the terrain and ocean
  2. NEG NAO
    I just mentiond that a few minutes ago and with this arctic airmass I would suspect there will be virga
  3. NEG NAO
    timing wise it might be closer to the GFS -PLUS consider there may be some front end virga involved here which delays the onset of the precip that reaches the ground - we have seen that before
  4. NEG NAO
    thats another problem here because the forum apparently extends from Ocean County all the way up to lower New York State and into eastern PA and CT., Long Island - so sorry I don't know how to rephrase what I said
  5. NEG NAO
    there is a banter thread and I think debating opinions is fine - but draw the line at trying to bully someone telling them to stop posting or name calling
  6. NEG NAO
    first of all we are right on the edge of the mixing line and its still 4 days away - so this is not set in stone
  7. NEG NAO
    GFS and Euro are at odds right now because the precip on the GFS only arrives area wide 3 -6 hours before mixing is very close on the Euro
  8. NEG NAO
    Agreed and I wouldn't commit to any accumulation amount right now until all the players are on the field and moving - at first I thought we would have high ratio's but now that is in doubt also.
  9. NEG NAO
    Anyone remember our high expectations several days out with this storm ? We were talking about this one on the forum previous to this one - think it was called Eastern Weather ? Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary
  10. NEG NAO
    who gets 20 ?
  11. NEG NAO
    the first option would curb everyone's enthusiasm
  12. NEG NAO
    define what you consider to be the Coastal Plain.
  13. NEG NAO
    definite timing issues have to be worked out as the Euro brings it in very early Sunday morning and wants to mix it here in the afternoon - while the GFS only starts the snow in the late morning
  14. NEG NAO
    as you zoom in to regional yes I was only looking at national map but I think the primary doesn't get that far north - the strong HP will cause the transfer earlier to the coast
  15. NEG NAO
    Ratio's will start higher beginning of storm and probably get lower as the storm progresses
  16. NEG NAO
    holds on to primary up too western PA and transfers to coastal off NJ coast - which keeps in mostly snow north of Raritan River in NJ
  17. NEG NAO
    wait while I get my magnifying glass
  18. NEG NAO
    1996 looks similar to this event on the Euro regarding the mixing making it up into southern half of NJ
  19. NEG NAO
    agreed plus less QPF will mean colder temps and ratio's higher to compensate for less QPF
  20. NEG NAO
    what happened to those huge snowfall amounts down south ? This shift north was too extreme and too sudden IMO - I wouldn't be surprised if this shifts a few miles south again in the coming days.
  21. NEG NAO
    1. This will be a very cold setup 2. The storm track won't favor a very windy event
  22. NEG NAO
    It wasn't JB and I should have mentioned they only said it was a possibility not definite - I think 15:1 is reasonable considering this air mass coming in from the north is quite unusually cold for this area during a snow event.
  23. NEG NAO
    once again why ?
  24. NEG NAO
    FYI a few of the more reliable METS are even mentioning 20:1 around the metro.
  25. NEG NAO
    true and the GFS ensembles disagree with its OP
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