NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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thats even better ! Walt is going to have his work cut out for him trying to figure out how to explain all of this in the storm thread......
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the 12Z GFS is moving further south more in line with the previous GEFS everyone starts as snow in fact is snow ice in the metro most of the event
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Can you please be more specific with the dates - the first storm is this weekends or next Tuesday ? When is the second storm ?
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look at the GEFS and EPS and Euro AI - strictly going by OPS 5 days out before the next storm even develops and passes is not a good idea
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IMO its interesting for the mid week storm that the ensembles of the GFS and Euro are not amped up like the OPS. Also the Euro AI is still southeast with precip barely making it into the Metro as shown below
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Only positive out of this rainstorm next week is with an active pattern more cold enough air will be dragged in behind it since the GFS is leading the way in this pattern December 7 it produces this
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Canadian is now amped - Euro AI is barely a miss east Ukie is now amped as of tonight looks like a rainstorm in the immediate NYC Metro - areas to the north I-84 etc. still in question.
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The 18Z Euro AI has the storm closer to the coast now
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and the amped GFS solution is wrong now ?
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really different solutions between the GFS and most other models - IMO GFS is too amped and will trend further south and east similar to the benchmark solution it had previously.... and other models will trend west closer to that solution....18Z is a leftover 12Z solution anyways - newer data at 0Z
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Obviously not after 12Z run
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I would rather have the models where they are now this far out and after todays 12Z runs I think this will be snow/ice or nothing north of Philly at least - GFS is usually over amped to begin with..........
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Good point
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So the Euro is worse too ? - similar solution as Ukmet - Euro Ai and Canadian - GFS basically alone as of now
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the 12Z Ukmet lost the storm altogether far out too sea now - nothing is set in stone yet still have 2 systems to deal with previous to this one - Ukmet shoving the cold air farther south could be a signal for a a colder scenario here next week
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Its rather easy to see why it would occur - that HP has to stay in place and block the storm into a favorable path for I-95 and provide the cold air source and be in a position to restrict the onshore warmer winds off the ocean - concentrate on the HP positioning
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The 0Z Euro starts as frozen in the metro BUT that HP does not stay anchored like in the GFS run so there is a change over to rain - still to early to predict the outcome except to say the storm chances are increasing and a frozen to rain scenario is favored right now IMO
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The OZ UKMET looks to be a closer to the coast track as the HP in southeast Canada is not as strong - starting at least as Frozen in the metro - the Canadian and the Euro AI are offshore tracks
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The important feature is the strong enough cold enough HP in southeast Canada staying PUT long enough to keep feeding the cold enough air in and storm track is perfect Benchmark because of this
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its not impossible - we are heading into a more favorable pattern for cold/snow events - it has snowed during this time period many times before - worth tracking for sure..........
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You are correct - checkout the 12Z AI much different from the 6Z BUT some amature Mets on youtube will probably make a big deal out of the 6Z run
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Let's see how the AI model performs in December -will it show some consistency moving forward ?
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Which Ensembles ? Just looked at the 12Z GEFS and we have only a couple days of cold outbreaks then when the storm approaches it cuts because of the southeast ridge and no blocking through the 1st week of DEC
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Need Neg NAO and that all important strong HP in southeast Canada anchored and a weakening of the southeast ridge - storms will cut west of us before this happens........seems like this is repeated here every year over and over - we all know the routine...........
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Starting when? Favorable for cold outbreaks is a guarantee - Snowstorms are not a guarantee YET IMO ......Need blocking to set up
