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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    holds on to primary up too western PA and transfers to coastal off NJ coast - which keeps in mostly snow north of Raritan River in NJ
  2. NEG NAO
    wait while I get my magnifying glass
  3. NEG NAO
    1996 looks similar to this event on the Euro regarding the mixing making it up into southern half of NJ
  4. NEG NAO
    agreed plus less QPF will mean colder temps and ratio's higher to compensate for less QPF
  5. NEG NAO
    what happened to those huge snowfall amounts down south ? This shift north was too extreme and too sudden IMO - I wouldn't be surprised if this shifts a few miles south again in the coming days.
  6. NEG NAO
    1. This will be a very cold setup 2. The storm track won't favor a very windy event
  7. NEG NAO
    It wasn't JB and I should have mentioned they only said it was a possibility not definite - I think 15:1 is reasonable considering this air mass coming in from the north is quite unusually cold for this area during a snow event.
  8. NEG NAO
    once again why ?
  9. NEG NAO
    FYI a few of the more reliable METS are even mentioning 20:1 around the metro.
  10. NEG NAO
    true and the GFS ensembles disagree with its OP
  11. NEG NAO
    consistency and agreement with other models is key in any event iMO
  12. NEG NAO
    I consider the GFS solution unlikely as of now because of little support from other model guidance and the history of this model showing extreme solutions at this range in the past -also the GEFS disagrees with it
  13. NEG NAO
    why ?
  14. NEG NAO
    Ratio's at least 15:1 is what is going to make this a significant storm here - nobody is expecting a KU event - 8 - 12 inches with a half to three quarters inch QPF seems reasonable to me from most guidance so far - of course this could change one way or the other - keep our biases at the door and have an open mind...
  15. NEG NAO
    once again use the 15:1 ratio which is easily reached with such cold temps over 8 or 9 inches in most areas
  16. NEG NAO
    15:1 ratio = a foot or more of snow in most of the metro
  17. NEG NAO
    I'd like to hear what you consider significant considering the high ratio potential with this storm this far north
  18. NEG NAO
    so its holding steady close to yesterdays solution thats what we want to see in a model
  19. NEG NAO
    To make statements like this so far in advance you should present some evidence backing up your theory
  20. NEG NAO
    we seem to experience this GFS OP nonsense practically every event its the King of the extreme solutions
  21. NEG NAO
    I think the AIGFS has inherited some of the bad traits of the regular GFS
  22. NEG NAO
    GFS many times seems to be by itself especially at this range - too overdone or underdone with amounts
  23. NEG NAO
    Ukie precip at 0Z run makes it all the way to southern VT. NH. BUT the snowfall map attached is only 10:1 ratio . Ratio's will be higher .
  24. NEG NAO
    I don't think its a big deal - its not like we are trying to rewrite the Constitution---lol
  25. NEG NAO
    why don't you just add a few more days to the thread title make it 1 /23 -1/31 - I was just reading the 2010 thread before Boxing Day storm and one thread had a longer date range, This way we can just talk generally about the arctic outbreak and cover the multiple storm threats.
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