NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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it still is snowing in the immediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone only 1 model run
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GFS has this really bombing out close enough still plenty of time
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12Z GFS closer to coast
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Also need the ridge out in the Rockies to shift westward also using the ICON 5 days out is useless IMO - this will not be centered over a relatively small area of the DEL MARVA
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still to early to tell if its real or not stand by for the 12Z runs - this doesn't look to encouraging although its out of range
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84 hr. NAM is even more fun to look at - 12Z should be fun too
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where is your evidence to support this theory of yours ?
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yes - but go back to Boxing Day 2010 here same thing happened 4-6 days out
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The Euro is now teasing us - trying to make us all crazy............BTW anyone notice the mainstream media especially online now advertising this as a "big storm" ?
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Can't make this stuff up - No Snow For You !
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yes look at the 0Z Euro starting at 12Z Thursday tracking that western storm which disappears in transit
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why would 6Z be any different with old incomplete data ? Plus read my post about the storm not entering the west coast till 12Z Thursday - now the storm is probably in a sparse data region in the Pacific and not fully evaluated yet
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IMO - I don't think the energy (storm) that is going to track across the country in the next few days has been fully sampled yet and fed into the models along with the northern energy. The west coast storm is progged to reach the west coast by 12Z Thursday. IMO expect further changes in model solutions over the next few days
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This explains the Canadian change from 12Z to 0Z
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this explains what happened on the GFS surface map looking at 500mb Vort
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so you are saying the models will return to the big storm solution as we get closer ?
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the ensembles were never on board - no cliff to jump off of - lessons learned - use the ensembles past day 5 and discount the GFS OP especially - the Canadian doing the GFS nonsense was surprising yesterday and today at 12Z
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these phase jobs are not easy to predict 5 days out - models will keep adjusting each day we get closer with new data fed into the models each day from the ever changing atmosphere - so what comes out of the models on day 6 or 7 could be many miles different in any direction by gametime - I would expect further changes in the next few days - might not even be a phase or one too far away and we end up with a few rain or snow showers.......thats one possibility
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why are some other METS saying the -PNA/AO pattern is not favorable ? You have proof that it is. Maybe someone should point this out to Lee Goldberg - Steve D. and DT
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majority of ensemble members have yet to fully support the OPS - except maybe an AI ensemble which is not a proven in the long term to be accurate yet - so they never actually lost the storm
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I guess the METS that don't like this pattern for a storm don't agree that the -PNA/AO supports larger storms that Don pointed out last night - Don had proof of this
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Also - its curious that the Canadian wanted nothing to do with the storm phase then all of a sudden last night at 0Z and again at 12Z did an about face with a blizzard solution -0Z runs and beyond should be interesting
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agreed - I don't like that the ensembles give little support to these overdone OP runs - we have been down this road before 5 days out - time will tell
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take precip totals with a grain of salt this far out - locations of heavier precip will change run to run and model to model
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of course the configuration of the precip field is going to change on all models - still ends up being a MECS for most of the metro
