NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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this is a very complex set-up and there are going to be some surprises as we get further down the road today - possible extreme lifting - banding and on the flip side a large dry slot somewhere cutting off precip for hours
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dynamics - rising air =lifting creating its own cold enough temps
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there are going to be winners ( rising air - banding) and losers in this event (sinking air - possible light dry slot)there will be a wide range of total snowfall amounts region wide IMO - and impossible at this point to tell exactly where - begin nowcasting....
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much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM
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My question now is what is everyone's opinion on what could go wrong with this storm causing much lower snowfall amounts then modeled in certain areas ? One area I think that is overdone is the NAMS 42 inches on the Ocean County coast .
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IMO its impossible for any model to pinpoint exactly where any extreme amounts will fall caused by banding - have seen that happen in many storms over the years.
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NYC: 15.8 LGA: 17.9 ISP:27.5 JFK:22.6 EWR: 18.5 -
Manhatten these days is the Heat Island - in a world of its own - concrete jungle - much different than during the Blizzard of '88
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haven't seen anything like that in a while
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roads will still be wet during the morning and early afternoon -they are going to put a ton of ice melt and salt down and temps close to or above freezing
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3 hour drive to where ?
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Not right along the coast in Monmouth or Ocean - I bet there is a mixing or change over at some point for at least a while
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will be interesting to see how the barrier islands in Ocean County do with this storm - I remember traveling west from Silverton which had 1 inch to Southern Lakewood - 7 miles away which had 7 inches from a storm
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yes in southern Monmouth County - know it well lived in Northern Ocean and traveled to work in Farmingdale NJ for years
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north of I-95 ?? please explain
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If its modeling holds for this storm the GFS will get an A+ for it - it wants to retire a winner
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where is the January 1996 storm ? Had 0ver 30 inches here but I was in Northern Ocean County at the time and only had 20 inches
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only when it makes them look good
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yeah with 16 inches could equal 2- 3 foot drifts which will be shoveling for a week - still have a small pile of ice to remove today from 27 days ago
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big difference when trying to remove 8 inches from your driveway VS. 16
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Euro is still playing catch - up I think the NWS is ignoring it now - but some private METS which will remain nameless are still considering it
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you to I am sure your will notice the 10 mph wind difference
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Sure glad I am few miles west of Staten Island - wouldn't want to be caught in that Blizzardbut seriously does anyone think conditions will be any different in the Eastern Counties of NJ ?
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but several forecasters are mentioning rain to start - very confusing situation and differences of opinion
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then as soon as the sun goes down the fun begins - and this could be more difficult to remove then the last storm because it will mainly fall overnight
