NEG NAO

I think its amazing how some posters here are just "throwing in the towel" on this storm like there is no chance of any snow when parts of the region could still receive anywhere from 2 - 8 inches AS OF NOW or more if there is a slight northwest jog of less than 100 miles. if you receive 4 -8 inches it will seem like a bigger deal because of all the snow already on the ground and frozen solid piles and VERY cold temps. The only good thing is it would be overnight Saturday once again very little traffic and Sunday a majority of people don't have to go to work or school. I also think the title of this thread is misleading - FYI it could be coming but only a smaller event than previously expected.

How much is Mayberry getting ?

Guaranteed the GFS OP doesn't verify with its Hop Scotching areas of LP .........crazy

Mt. Holly 4 PM update still has a 40% chance of snow Saturday night and 50% chance Sunday in my area- they still think the precip might reach west of NYC

he did something similar a couple days ago - notice there is no model name or date on it -WeatherGeek Model

its actually closer to the 84 hr. NAM which would probably be close to that 90 hour ICON - thats scary - maybe the almost totally out to sea idea was not right with better data being fed into the models now as we get closer

take it with a grain of salt until a non-mesoscale model agrees other than the CFS - NAM past 60 hours not accurate at all even under 60 hours

This is so close we are not going to have all the answers till at least Friday or Saturday IMO because there is a good chance of at least some snow in the Region

does anybody have the GEFS individual ensemble members graphic chart ?

which one of those numbers ( members) is the OP ?

also this is not an all or nothing storm for NYC immediate metro - still can receive advisory or WSW from this - I would lean toward throwing in the towel regarding a MECS or higher though

The Jury will still be out deliberating till at least tomorrow - all options on the table IMO

The Canadian and GFS are not set in stone as any adjustmet in those 250 mb winds or trough alignment can shift the storm just far enough west to impact the immediate NYC metro - it happened before the Boxing Day storm and no reason it can't happen again - have to leave all options on the table IMO - throwing in the towel today is a big risk..

the storm on the 12Z GFS does turn the corner off of FLA and redevelops right over Hatteras stalls and deepens - But then it hits a brick wall and makes a hard right turn - question I have is will the upper level pattern change and allow it to continue north along the coast ?

The 12Z GFS =

I don't know why some folks think this is going to be set in stone after todays model runs - review the AFD's posted from Don for the Boxing Day storm less then 3 days in advance of the onset of precip

Thats a RED FLAG right there - 3 KU's at the top ? - How does CIPS do with verification ?

not every storm around here is going to be major - most are not - expectations around this place get too high overall IMO

BUT - still have to consider this old saying "Every Dog has its Day"

I wish there were more METS like yourself posting in this forum to guide us through this potential for obvious reasons.........

glad you fully explained your reasoning

its the same out here in the suburbs on the side streets that are not snow emergency streets - they should have an ordinance that states you have to remove your plowed in car within a couple days but they don't - and who wants to have to stay home on the weekend snow bound ! Hoping for only a 2-4 or 3-6 max = sorry folks !

I don't think some people realize what a big deal this is going to be even if we only have a SECS with Arctic air in place and over foot of snow already on the ground - think about it - going to be difficult to plow and remove from driveways......

surprised its only 991 was stronger earlier ?? or was that other models ?

the ICON is a second string model at best - especially the OP version