NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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Its interesting that most people are dismissing the Euro and going with the worst models GFS-NAM Etc. The Euro snowfall map looks serious enough for the immediate metro to me for so early in the season . Oh Well ! -
that was an easier forecast because the arctic air was already established in place...........
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what if the Canadian shifts back to its OZ accumulating snow solution ? And Euro shifts south ? there has been a wide range of differing model solutions in the last 24 hours from the amped GFS and Nam brings liquid all the way up to Albany and the Canadians 2 - 4 inches North Jersey
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Models are confused right now to say the least - expect further changes in future runs ...........
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now watch the next Euro's suite only bring the precip as far north as southern NY state - something is seriously wrong with some of these models..........is it GIGO (Garbage In/Garbage Out)??
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18Z Nam is saying way north of Yonkers till it snows - closer to Albany
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interesting where does the data input come from for the Euro model ? The output is much different then GFS and Canadian
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12Z Canadian amped up again - discussion here has been the GFS is too wound up and the Canadian and Euro have been trending towards it and then backing off then flip floping - like to know which data ingested into the models or missing on certain runs is causing this
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Sounds like the type of discussions and articles Paul Dorian of Arcfield Weather would discuss on his site........
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12Z NAM amped hard to believe this is correct if you are saying the GFS is too amped
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anyone who wants 2-4 or 3 -5 in the immediate metro away from any immediate coastal locations should hope for a weaker solution - the water temps are still too warm for an amped up solution which brings in that warmer air- we won't know for sure how this is going to play out until that Great Lakes low passes and HP moves into southeast Canada and if it is allowed to leave with the flow or stays put just long enough to provide cold enough air and keep the storm off the coast
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This is what I mean by 25 -50 mile adjustment 12Z Euro has snow accumulations now down into central NJ and part of Ocean/Burlington County NJ
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I wouldn't change the thread title till Sunday PM if needed - IMO this setup is not set in stone as 25 -50 miles either way makes a big difference..along with the position of the HP and how the storm cutting through the Great Lakes this weekend adjusts the location of the key players on the field....
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0Z Euro - a few days after mid-week event next weekend) has been showing up on various models last few days-colder airmass to work with-also will be entering MJO phase 8
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Can't make this stuff up 18Z Euro AI is still off the coast out to sea
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still a long way to go with this - flip flopping at this range is not unusual and 18Z runs are not as reliable as 0Z and 12Z some data could be missing that was included in 12Z who knows !
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on to the ensembles - but 0Z will provide newer data.........
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there is going to be mixing somewhere- these amounts are not accurate yet BUT GFS and Euro moved closer to their mean Ensembles - probably more adjustments to come
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good luck trying to figure this out - like I have been saying the GEFS,EPS and Euro AI never had an amped up system to begin with this is still 5 days away there will be more changes in the models,,,,,,,,,,,,
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thats even better ! Walt is going to have his work cut out for him trying to figure out how to explain all of this in the storm thread......
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the 12Z GFS is moving further south more in line with the previous GEFS everyone starts as snow in fact is snow ice in the metro most of the event
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Can you please be more specific with the dates - the first storm is this weekends or next Tuesday ? When is the second storm ?
