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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    There still is hope -lol
  2. NEG NAO
    that was my point - you are never going to get consistent average seasonal snowfall around here year to year - there are wide variations in year to year totals - always has been that way
  3. NEG NAO
    until you get a few seasons in a row of above normal snowfall - go look at the record books - we go years in a row with below normal snowfall and the same with above normal.....
  4. NEG NAO
    The 0Z Euro shows the later weekend storm passing to our north with no precip here
  5. NEG NAO
    The OZ Euro starts the precip during the day Friday (31st) and ends it just after midnight the (1st) -all liquid here - storm is not suppressed much obviously
  6. NEG NAO
    Also difference in timing of second later weekend wave CMC Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits in fact GFS says snow here earlier later in weekend and CMC is later then GFS with liquid ICON has 3 events into early next week - first is liquid the next 2 frozen Like Walt mentioned earlier individual model solutions will continue to change next few days
  7. NEG NAO
    12Z GEFS has snow starting later Saturday into Sunday
  8. NEG NAO
    Then you have the ICON which has a stronger LP that cuts into Northern New England from the midwest Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather
  9. NEG NAO
    this is still a system to monitor because if the colder air sets up further south and the storm is blocked as suggested by the Canadian especially with a little more moisture there still is potential for a light to moderate event near the metro - also as Walt mentioned a clipper type system need to be monitored later in the weekend which could give us snow
  10. NEG NAO
    Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather
  11. NEG NAO
    But then the LP hits the block and is forced south with little dynamic support or moisture and then moves offshore on the GFS with little frozen here Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather
  12. NEG NAO
    any idea when the Euro's will correct south ?
  13. NEG NAO
    Agree with Walt - plus the GFS is showing some consistency and looks reasonable but the controlling factor is how the HP is positioned - timing of it moving into a favorable position and the strength - track and timing of LP - this is a thread the needle deal IMO https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025012706&fh=126
  14. NEG NAO
    Euro is north still as HP in Canada not moving southeast fast enough to block storm Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather But then the HP pushes southeast and the storm moves offshore and this event is over by early Saturday Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather Also Feb looks to start with normal temps and then the middle of the first week we are back to lows in single digits and teens Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
  15. NEG NAO
    Because the HP in southeast Canada is moving faster to the southeast then previous runs but still steady precip makes it into LI and Central NJ Models: GEFS — Pivotal Weather
  16. NEG NAO
    0Z Icon is way north - the reason being is the HP in Canada is way west still the HP is the controlling factor here Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather
  17. NEG NAO
    The Euro's and the ensembles should be interesting - but we are still over 5 days away
  18. NEG NAO
    Canadian suppresses storm - actually this is a good signal this far out IMO Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather
  19. NEG NAO
    Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather Because HP moving faster to the southeast blocking storm
  20. NEG NAO
    this comes down to the positioning and strength of the cold HP to the north - impossible to predict this far out
  21. NEG NAO
    next weekends event still shows up on the 12Z GFS - forget about above avg temps to start the month
  22. NEG NAO
    The 06 GFS was a weenies dream run - any bets on how the 12Z will compare ?
  23. NEG NAO
    you must agree with the EURO AI warmer solution - the GFS shows a snow/Ice threat here next weekend - no above normal temps plus Walt seems to also believe the GFS solution - he started a winter storm thread for next weekend
  24. NEG NAO
    No January thaw this year .............
  25. NEG NAO
    The 0Z Euro only has 1 above normal temp day the first week or 7 days of Feb, the above normal temps stay below the Mason Dixon line for the most part as the arctic air is close by to the north - individual storm chances to be determined - too far out for those details....
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