NEG NAO

When is the last time we had a snowstorm in NYC Metro with the MJO in Phase 6 ? As of tonight have to go with the best model the Euro Solution with the key players in the wrong positions which equals just about nothing here.

no its not if you are talking later this week=BUT don't make a big deal about it could change

NOT that it matters this far out BUT the Euro AI is too warm in the Metro

Inaccurate forecast that far out - thats why we have to keep our options open about later next week

wait 1 more day after 12Z Sunday runs IF there is more consensus with other models - disregard GFS snow totals now.......

all I can say is that the GFS keeps returning to the major snowstorm solution and its doing it at around day 5 -6 so it has to be considered but only taken seriously if any other models start leaning that way - Canadian is not at 12Z - Icon looks like it is considering it Also the GFS totals are way overdone IMO

Anyone else notice that Upton and Mt. Holly in addition to other NWS offices have a new AFD format - using "Key Messages" ??? Hope none of this is AI driven...the computerized voice on their weather radio stations is bad enough AFD from KOKX

I didn't even look at the ensembles 0Z runs because I ran out of time and was spending too much time trying to post maps from the OP runs. Did they show any potential snowfall for a majority of members ? I am satisfied with just a normal snowfall - the 1-3 , 2 -4 , 3-6, 4-8 variety anything over that doesn't grow on trees so to say in the immediate metro so no sense expecting those most of the time. The 06Z GFS for what its off hours run is worth doesn't show the strong wrapped up LP it showed in a previous run - BUT still shows rain changing to snow with a few to several inches Metro wide

Nothing to show at all on the 0Z Euro - no snowfall and little precip after this weekend throughout the entire run

The Euro AI solution is closest to the GFS except it doesn't become a wrapped up bomb along the coast like the GFS and lacking the dynamics to draw in the colder air to produce frozen it is mainly rain right along the coast

at this point it is not possible to determine which model solution if any of them will be close to verifying - but there are vast differences in solutions now past 5 days - until a couple of them get to the point of basic agreement - confidence will increase probably in another 2 or 3 days. It was amazing though how far in advance they agreed on the current systems moving through especially the cold front sweeping across the nation scheduled to pass later Sunday - they had that solution for several days now.

For anyone wondering why each models output is so different - here it is AI Overview No, different weather models don't get the exact same data, and even with similar data, they interpret it differently due to unique physics equations, algorithms, resolution, and data assimilation methods, leading to varied forecasts, which is why meteorologists use multiple models for confidence. While core data (satellites, balloons) is shared, how each model processes it (initialization, grid size, physics) creates distinct outputs.

Ukie is different than both the GFS and Canadian - would like to be under "hood" of these models and see what info - collected data- is being fed into them and how they are programmed to handle it

Thats only part of the equation much more complicated than that.

Totally opposing solutions GFS and Canadian

i would rather wait a few days and have that second round verify on 1/18 -1/19

whats this called ?

so give us your take on the models at 12Z...........

agree - still nothing to get specifically excited about except for the POTENTIAL

Now the Final Jeopardy question. Will The GFS OP still show this snowstorm in NYC Metro during the 12Z GFS Model run ? At least it is now under 1 week away.........

how reliable is this model since they started using it ?

what happened to the warmer 50's forecasted for Saturday earlier this week? Also I wouldn't trust any model solution past a few days in this setup '

-0.2 below normal temps in other words near normal. Snowfall ? Anyones guess at this time.........would love to have a snowfall contest