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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    any idea when the Euro's will correct south ?
  2. NEG NAO
    Agree with Walt - plus the GFS is showing some consistency and looks reasonable but the controlling factor is how the HP is positioned - timing of it moving into a favorable position and the strength - track and timing of LP - this is a thread the needle deal IMO https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025012706&fh=126
  3. NEG NAO
    Euro is north still as HP in Canada not moving southeast fast enough to block storm Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather But then the HP pushes southeast and the storm moves offshore and this event is over by early Saturday Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather Also Feb looks to start with normal temps and then the middle of the first week we are back to lows in single digits and teens Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
  4. NEG NAO
    Because the HP in southeast Canada is moving faster to the southeast then previous runs but still steady precip makes it into LI and Central NJ Models: GEFS — Pivotal Weather
  5. NEG NAO
    0Z Icon is way north - the reason being is the HP in Canada is way west still the HP is the controlling factor here Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather
  6. NEG NAO
    The Euro's and the ensembles should be interesting - but we are still over 5 days away
  7. NEG NAO
    Canadian suppresses storm - actually this is a good signal this far out IMO Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather
  8. NEG NAO
    Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather Because HP moving faster to the southeast blocking storm
  9. NEG NAO
    this comes down to the positioning and strength of the cold HP to the north - impossible to predict this far out
  10. NEG NAO
    next weekends event still shows up on the 12Z GFS - forget about above avg temps to start the month
  11. NEG NAO
    The 06 GFS was a weenies dream run - any bets on how the 12Z will compare ?
  12. NEG NAO
    you must agree with the EURO AI warmer solution - the GFS shows a snow/Ice threat here next weekend - no above normal temps plus Walt seems to also believe the GFS solution - he started a winter storm thread for next weekend
  13. NEG NAO
    No January thaw this year .............
  14. NEG NAO
    The 0Z Euro only has 1 above normal temp day the first week or 7 days of Feb, the above normal temps stay below the Mason Dixon line for the most part as the arctic air is close by to the north - individual storm chances to be determined - too far out for those details....
  15. NEG NAO
    This is warm ?
  16. NEG NAO
    Good Luck getting the temperature 2 degrees above avg this winter in Feb.........I agree with your precip totals maybe 3- 4 inches though but temps closer to normal
  17. NEG NAO
    considering how cold January has been and avg temps in February usually rise - it won't be difficult for it to be warmer - timing of storms in cold or warm periods is impossible to predict in advance.....
  18. NEG NAO
    thats why I said its a BIG IF - but on the other hand extreme events seem to be common these last few years so I wouldn't close the door on the possibility....
  19. NEG NAO
    it doesn't matter in my opinion if 2 winters temperature and snowfall patterns are similar they can be analogs for one another IMO . Plus how long have we actually been categorizing El Nino and LaNina events since record keeping began ?
  20. NEG NAO
    I would say 2009 -2010 could be an analog for this season IF it ends up being cold and very snowy in Feb - BIG IF though ! and not a prediction ! 2009 -2010 had 3 cold months below avg Dec - Feb - a basically low snowfall of a couple inches in January- BUT a snowier December......and all time snowiest Feb of 36 inches - we are overdue to break this precip drought one way or the other
  21. NEG NAO
    if it shows that 5 - 7 days out I will believe it plus it will be a one day or so warm up if it even verifies -12Z Euro AI
  22. NEG NAO
    if it shows that 5 - 7 days out I will believe it plus it will be a one day or so warm up if it even verifies
  23. NEG NAO
    the other problem is the MJO is going into the extreme right side of the Neutral Circle and there is some disagreements amongst guidance if it will enter 4-5-6 or stay in the Neutral Zone and make a left hand turn towards the colder phases - STAY TUNED !
  24. NEG NAO
    like I said previously don't believe any models past 5 - 7 days - 12Z Canadian does not agree with you or GFS still alot of cold around
  25. NEG NAO
    I wouldn't trust any model long range past 5 - 7 days - check this out on the EURO AI last nights 0Z vs, todays 06Z
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