NEG NAO

waiting for the first model to jump ship with a miss or a light to moderate event here............very difficult to break a long dry spell especially in such a dramatic way....

We ran out of days in the month to break the record but we wouldn't have done it tomorrow anyways with temps much cooler on the way...........

How dry we will most likely be the next few weeks in NYC metro- quite a few trees leaves are just turning from green to brown and are falling off already........

Yes - 64 % Humidity 60 Dewpoint here On the Middlesex/Union County Border in NJ as of 11 am . Air Quality Index is 50 - Hazardous - whats causing that ?

like any other possible snow event - need more then 1 model and at least 1 models ensemble members consistent with it for at least a couple of days to even consider it.......models are still arguing with each other and even with themselves run to run - but its still fun to post these model runs with blizzards - GFS is King of the long range imaginary Blizzards - what was weird about the storm a couple of weeks ago was the EURO was the first to show an imaginary Blizzard many days in advance..BUT the GFS did not

its amazing how different the GFS and Canadian are along the east coast next weekend GFS has no sign of a storm and Canadian does

it would be welcomed though - can sit outside for awhile in the sun hopefully

so far - BUT we are overdue for a snowy March

I agree and also their warm biases during the winter

when you enter March predicting any weather event in the longer range becomes more difficult because its a changing of seasons - plus if you predict low 40's for a daytime high and it snows your prediction from 10 days prior will bust by 10 degrees at least

That map has no snow on it for a week in NYC if you run it from day 1 - what makes 10 day temperature maps more accurate than the GFS long range snow map ? There have never been any busts ? Never any differences in individual models ?

can you post some long range maps to prove your point ? Here's a snow map in the mean time

how can you predict the daily temps being in the 40's over 10 days in advance ?

if you are going to make statements that contradict what the NWS is predicting at least try and back it up with some evidence ZFP from KOKX

Can you imagine if that model is wrong ?

how do you get 40's and 50's from this on March 1 ?

yes its already Feb 20

Tonight 2 - 6 flakes Likely . Chance of flakes 70 % They used to call the TV Show Seinfeld "The show about nothing " the lasted storm thread was 59 pages about nothing" in NYC metro.. Amazing how all of us including Red Taggers and other color taggers and even the NWS get suckered in most times to believing long range range models..... usually it is the GFS leading the way but this time was the EURO

Sunshine Likely - 70% chance

huh ? precip is above normal this month at Central Park after this past weekend storm and another storm next week

that has to be some sort of record -- 12 snowfalls worth 16 inches........in one season

IMO I don't think we will have a good handle on this and how this is going to move up along the coast until the energy is transferred from the Gulf to the southeast coast and the precip field develops and how much territory it fills and the movement of it - and exactly how the upper low is behaving..........

Yes the NAM is based on the LP being dragged west by the upper low - but in this scenario even if that doesn't happen there is still more then 1 way such as the Norlun possibilities or just the strong dynamic upper low passing overhead of getting accumulating snow in NYC metro - I think Walts idea previously of 2 -6 inches powder is still on the table IMO.....