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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    define what you consider to be the Coastal Plain.
  2. NEG NAO
    definite timing issues have to be worked out as the Euro brings it in very early Sunday morning and wants to mix it here in the afternoon - while the GFS only starts the snow in the late morning
  3. NEG NAO
    as you zoom in to regional yes I was only looking at national map but I think the primary doesn't get that far north - the strong HP will cause the transfer earlier to the coast
  4. NEG NAO
    Ratio's will start higher beginning of storm and probably get lower as the storm progresses
  5. NEG NAO
    holds on to primary up too western PA and transfers to coastal off NJ coast - which keeps in mostly snow north of Raritan River in NJ
  6. NEG NAO
    wait while I get my magnifying glass
  7. NEG NAO
    1996 looks similar to this event on the Euro regarding the mixing making it up into southern half of NJ
  8. NEG NAO
    agreed plus less QPF will mean colder temps and ratio's higher to compensate for less QPF
  9. NEG NAO
    what happened to those huge snowfall amounts down south ? This shift north was too extreme and too sudden IMO - I wouldn't be surprised if this shifts a few miles south again in the coming days.
  10. NEG NAO
    1. This will be a very cold setup 2. The storm track won't favor a very windy event
  11. NEG NAO
    It wasn't JB and I should have mentioned they only said it was a possibility not definite - I think 15:1 is reasonable considering this air mass coming in from the north is quite unusually cold for this area during a snow event.
  12. NEG NAO
    once again why ?
  13. NEG NAO
    FYI a few of the more reliable METS are even mentioning 20:1 around the metro.
  14. NEG NAO
    true and the GFS ensembles disagree with its OP
  15. NEG NAO
    consistency and agreement with other models is key in any event iMO
  16. NEG NAO
    I consider the GFS solution unlikely as of now because of little support from other model guidance and the history of this model showing extreme solutions at this range in the past -also the GEFS disagrees with it
  17. NEG NAO
    why ?
  18. NEG NAO
    Ratio's at least 15:1 is what is going to make this a significant storm here - nobody is expecting a KU event - 8 - 12 inches with a half to three quarters inch QPF seems reasonable to me from most guidance so far - of course this could change one way or the other - keep our biases at the door and have an open mind...
  19. NEG NAO
    once again use the 15:1 ratio which is easily reached with such cold temps over 8 or 9 inches in most areas
  20. NEG NAO
    15:1 ratio = a foot or more of snow in most of the metro
  21. NEG NAO
    I'd like to hear what you consider significant considering the high ratio potential with this storm this far north
  22. NEG NAO
    so its holding steady close to yesterdays solution thats what we want to see in a model
  23. NEG NAO
    To make statements like this so far in advance you should present some evidence backing up your theory
  24. NEG NAO
    we seem to experience this GFS OP nonsense practically every event its the King of the extreme solutions
  25. NEG NAO
    I think the AIGFS has inherited some of the bad traits of the regular GFS
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