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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    I see it - .5 seems more realistic IMO right now BUT that .5 can easily go back to much higher amounts similar to what last night was showing IMO - only time will tell
  2. NEG NAO
    I wasn't expecting large scale improvements yet until this current storm exits
  3. NEG NAO
    still keeps us in the ballgame but east gets more then west metro of course
  4. NEG NAO
    only 50 -75 mile adjustment to the west makes a big difference in the immediate metro - must be the confluence that turns this east all of a sudden when it reaches the Delmarva region
  5. NEG NAO
    LP is stronger coming up the coast as compared to 24 hours ago
  6. NEG NAO
    important to watch the locations and strength of the HP's to the north and west and also exactly where the 50/50 low sets up and its strength at hour 48 that LP exiting to the north and east is at 965 quite strong
  7. NEG NAO
    the current dynamics of this current weekend storm being so strong could be be affecting the data that is being gathered and injected into the models - once the playing field is cleared ( storm exits)so to say the models will have updated data and no interference from this system IMO
  8. NEG NAO
    apparently they are all gathering the similar data the last run or 2 that is changing the models forecast output - but they are programmed differently which causes different solutions sometimes
  9. NEG NAO
    would really like to know which gathered data that was put into the latest model runs caused these drastic shifts to the east
  10. NEG NAO
    Feb 11, 1983 wasn't locked in till a day or so before.....
  11. NEG NAO
    perfect example why one can't put all their eggs into the GFS OP basket
  12. NEG NAO
    Nothing was reduced today in fact Upton in their afternoon AFD just said the chances of a MECS has increased by way of snow showers and lowering the chances overall to 60 % down form yesterdays 70 % chance of snow - got to cover yourself both ways...
  13. NEG NAO
    its just ending as the rain is staying south of us moving west to east dry slots across PA
  14. NEG NAO
    precip will exit before it turns to rain
  15. NEG NAO
    after this batch exits there is a big dry slot across PA and Ohio and everything is moving west to east until you get into southern Indiana where it is moving northeast
  16. NEG NAO
    both -lol
  17. NEG NAO
    only problem is the ICON is not weighted heavily in anybody's forecast
  18. NEG NAO
    no - not recently but most of us know his opinion already
  19. NEG NAO
    I want to hear Walts response to this snow shower forecast by Upton - still no update from MT. Holly they are probably on the phone with Upton asking them why they changed to only snow showers .........
  20. NEG NAO
    it means they don't expect a solid widespread area of precip and that we will be on the outer precip shield with dry slots - what are they going to do if the EURO moves west again tonight ? along with the other models ? playing modelology here with their fav's waiting for MT. Holly afternoon update
  21. NEG NAO
    I can't understand using "showers" is that a mistake ? I wouldn't have included that just reduce the percentage to 60 % - should have never been 70 % yesterday - but what do I know.....
  22. NEG NAO
    LOL - Upton just reduced the mid- late week storm to "snow showers likely" 60 % - can't make this stuff up - get the smelling salts ready - waiting for replies ZFP from KOKX
  23. NEG NAO
    and you can always predict how individual posters here will react as soon as there is the first negative run ( less snow) of a individual model after many positive runs ( more snow) - lets see how Upton and MT. Holly react at about 3:30 pm
  24. NEG NAO
    GFS is the outlier right now amongst most models and it handles the southern energy historically poor as opposed to the EURO -GFS flattens things out because of all of this and hence out to sea - all at this range but probably will come to its senses as we get closer to the event
  25. NEG NAO
    as of right now the timing for the immediate NYC metro is snow develops sometime after midnight Thursday and tapers off sometime in the mid- late evening Thursday and ends close to midnight so close to a 20 -24 hour event - lets see if there are any timing changes and or duration changes as we get closer and closer to showtime............BTW this is according to the 0Z Euro
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