NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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seriously - this official chart contains those inaccurate measurements - not good monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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then why hasn't the problem been solved and corrected ?
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I think it has to be an employee of the NWS - anyone on here live near Central Park and can measure close to where they get their measurements from ? maybe Walt has some more info on the measurements and why they are always low
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doesn't anyone go where they measure when the snow is falling and try to determine whats causing the constant low totals ?
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even in NYC immediate metro ? whats it going to be well inland ? -
remember - this is forecasted to be a wet snow similar to the beginning of the last event and even a couple of inches will stick to everything = power lines - trees - etc etc so it will look more more threatening then it might end up to be
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and if the precip arrives a couple hours earlier that # 1 area will be further south and east and if it is delayed a few hours arriving that # 3 area will expand further north that why I am sticking with 1 -4 for my area as of now - this is a perfect example of threading the needle..........should be interesting how most school districts handle this because many have early dismissal on Tuesday for the holidays - can't have a delayed opening on those days because it won't count as a 4 hour day........
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when you see something like this - it shows the models still haven't figured out how to handle this situation along with the NAM showing little or nothing . Need to get closer to get a better idea............
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not according to SnowGoose - he wrote previously-- "The airmass believe it or not is better than it was with the last event. At least to start. Its 32/13 on the NAM at 12Z. The bigger risk with this is it just is largely too far north in the end."
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why are you posting a second link blend of models 6 hr snowfall that ends at 12Z 12/24 ? Plus its just not the GFS showing greater amounts
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seems like a few models are shifting the colder air south along with more moisture and interaction with the warm front to the south 1 -4 inches still on the table as of now IMO...
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I still think any of these solutions is possible since we are still closer to 60 hours from the event - we are right on the border of the cold enough air and significant enough precip - could go either way.......
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IMO it is still too early to say if this is accurate or not - the last storm over performed in many areas - this will end up being a nowcasting event just like the last one.......
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You can clearly see where the cold front is on radar racing east from east of Williamsport PA down through Baltimore MD
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what was their low temperature this week so far ? Check out if they have a record temperature spread record for a 1 week period. Right here in Central NJ my low has been 18 this week and now its 58.............
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SVR from KPHI It mentions that these storms contain little or no lightning - BUT 60 MPH gusts
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If this continues to show up on the models for Tuesday the road departments will begin spreading the salt/liquid ice melter or whatever Monday afternoon and we begin the cycle all over again
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Upton believes it ZFP from KOKX
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After much above normal temps across most the USA next week - we get back into a more normal winter pattern as blocking over Greenland has more influence later next week and beyond - individual storms yet to be determined.........
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12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it up
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what is it if you remove the 17 -19th and calculate from the 20th to the 31st ?
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Upton is famous for not accurately predicting sky conditions - example is many times they post Mostly Sunny and then instability clouds start developing to the north and west and cloud up the skies here - this happens quite bit in the Spring also............
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Euro - within the last few days was also suggesting something similar but that negative NAO and the strength of it and the HP position in southeast Canada along with the warmer air trying to attack it could set up a gradient/overunning event somewhere in the Northeast and or Mid- Atlantic - example it might be in the 50's in Richmond and closer to 32 in NYC - we don't know yet
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nothing like posting some evidence to back up your guess...........
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With the NAO negative - the WPO Negative and MJO hanging around somewhere in Phase 8 - how do you get anywhere close to 60 ?
