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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    then should ask Tropical Tidbits creator Levy Cowan why ?
  2. NEG NAO
    The GFS is a model loaded with mistakes in the coding which causes glitches in the output - also its obvious the GFS can't be trusted anymore past 60 hours and should be treated similar to the NAM - how many wild goose chases have we sent on with wrapped up blizzards several days in advance here over the last few years to eventually fizzle out in future runs ? That is what helped create this thread prematurely...
  3. NEG NAO
    Its obvious we aren't going to get much with a positively tilted trough axis
  4. NEG NAO
    this is as close Euro gets to us
  5. NEG NAO
    the 0Z Euro Suite will determine which side of the fence we are on with this potential and will have an impact on the BOM output,,,,,,
  6. NEG NAO
    have a comparison to 12Z ?
  7. NEG NAO
    I think it could be similar to todays event with the heavier amounts south of the area and 1 - 4 in the metro.......as of now....although any banding could produce 4 - 8 in those areas
  8. NEG NAO
    However you want to define it - BUT I am siding with the voice of reason on this one - Walt- he tells it like it is and doesn't wishcast.......
  9. NEG NAO
    its still hanging the energy back in the southwest right ?
  10. NEG NAO
    which models that are 0Z or 12Z ?
  11. NEG NAO
    agree 100 % - I think too many folks are jumping the gun on this one based on 2 runs of a GFS OP and the 12Z Euro a complete miss of the phase and out to sea - need more support for the GFS solution to support a storm scenario......
  12. NEG NAO
    unfortunately until the Euro shows that it doesn't agree yet and the GFS can easily lose the phase at 0Z
  13. NEG NAO
    The 18Z is still using old data from earlier the real test will be when the new data is injected into the model at 0Z ........
  14. NEG NAO
    Bernie is confused too:
  15. NEG NAO
    now honestly which one would you put your money on ?
  16. NEG NAO
    if the Euro OP and ensemblles were even close to the GFS I wouldn't be discounting the GFS but its hard to get a phase with that setup. And we are only 5-6 days away
  17. NEG NAO
    of course the GFS ensembles will side with the GFS OP
  18. NEG NAO
    I meant the Euro Ensembles.........I am discounting the entire GFS Suite. Look how they mislead us on this event with all the amped up members
  19. NEG NAO
    no post them for us ?
  20. NEG NAO
    Euro and Canadian basically miss - GFS is wrong AGAIN as usual....NYC snow drought continues with no end in sight
  21. NEG NAO
    when is the last time it verified a MECS or greater over the last few years for our area ? Its shown them quite a few times over that time period
  22. NEG NAO
    IMO if the 0Z has 2 of the top 3 GFS, Euro and Canadian and at least one of their ensembles mean show a similar 18Z GFS scenario then start a storm thread but not until those conditions are met......,
  23. NEG NAO
    Because they are using Meteorology NOT Modelology.............models don't have the ability to predict exact accumulation amounts exactly this far out with banding and possible dry slot coming into play - this event is going to be a typical now casting event with surprises IMO
  24. NEG NAO
    Sounds like what happened last Feb 16-17 with that heavy band just south of I-78
  25. NEG NAO
    The 06Z Nam precip shield moved north about 30 -40 miles from the 0Z run and steadier precip doesn't enter the immediate NYC metro until mid- morning in Northern Middlesex/ Union County NJ so basically is still 2 days away.........see if this trend continues at 12Z - I would discount exact precip amounts on these model outputs right now because of heavier banding possibilities.....and drier slots - example - last Feb 16 -17 storm...
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