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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    AND THE 0Z CANADIAN is COMPLETLY DIFFERENT THEN 12Z -Impossible to start a storm thread at this point
  2. NEG NAO
    Who thinks these amounts are too high in PA down through VA ?
  3. NEG NAO
    Now we can begin to see how this might play out as that new low grabs the offshore precip to its north and throws it on shore over NJ and the metro later.................
  4. NEG NAO
    where are the other low centers located ? you can actually see the LP in Del Marva on radar as the precip west of it is moving from the northeast to southwest
  5. NEG NAO
    anybody fiqure out the future of this storm yet ? Precip field in NJ over Monmouth and Ocean Counties is shrinking also winds here in north central NJ are reduced from earlier
  6. NEG NAO
    anyone ever consider the HP to the north will win the battle this time around ???and areas especially north and west of Monmouth County NJ get much less then originally expected ? Not saying this will happen YET ! phasing even beginning yet ?
  7. NEG NAO
    good question - do we share with other countries models our data ? how does that all work ?
  8. NEG NAO
    this thread is a good practice run here for the winter storms ahead - taking what you just mentioned into account too.........
  9. NEG NAO
    this is a now casting event - models should be taken with a grain of salt especially since they are not receiving full data input since the gov shutdown began
  10. NEG NAO
    go on google and you will see articles explaining how weather models are not getting the full data from some weather ballons not being launched since the government shutdown began.
  11. NEG NAO
    NJ State of Emergency Office of the Governor | Acting Governor Way Declares State of Emergency Ahead of Dangerous Nor’easter Storm
  12. NEG NAO
    This is beginning to look like a moderate rain event north and west of Monmouth County NJ - with 1 - 2 inches long duration event and with the ground being bone dry from the drought conditions the last couple of months it will soak up that 1 -2 inches fast and there should be little flooding concerns unless you are prone to coastal flooding which is being caused by long duration onshore flow and high winds............
  13. NEG NAO
    can't trust the NAM past 60 hours but here is the total qpf most of which still falls past 60 hours
  14. NEG NAO
    Problem is the cold enough air for snow would not stay locked in with a track coming onshore into the Del Marva especially for areas south of I -80............that would be a snow to rain track for NYC
  15. NEG NAO
    along with some of those precip amounts - this storm center will have a hard time getting past the Del Marva and will probably spin itself out because of the HP blocking it.........
  16. NEG NAO
    those dunes they created on some of the beaches in NJ after Sandy will be tested during this storm because of the added King Tides thing and the Moon thing adding to the levels.........
  17. NEG NAO
    the Euro AI is probably closer to reality with amounts
  18. NEG NAO
    why no Canadian model runs on Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal ?
  19. NEG NAO
    I agree -thats been the trend the last few systems - plus these frontal systems are moving fast and trying to pinpoint who will get how much is like throwing paint at a wall.....as for the coastal storm early next week placement and strength of the HP to the north is critical
  20. NEG NAO
    Its becoming obvious that the overall very dry conditions will continue in the NYC metro for the most part until further notice ..........
  21. NEG NAO
    12Z Canadian now keeps storm offshore for the most part
  22. NEG NAO
    waiting for the first model to jump ship with a miss or a light to moderate event here............very difficult to break a long dry spell especially in such a dramatic way....
  23. NEG NAO
  24. NEG NAO
  25. NEG NAO
    We ran out of days in the month to break the record but we wouldn't have done it tomorrow anyways with temps much cooler on the way...........
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