NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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Sounds like the type of discussions and articles Paul Dorian of Arcfield Weather would discuss on his site........ -
12Z NAM amped hard to believe this is correct if you are saying the GFS is too amped
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anyone who wants 2-4 or 3 -5 in the immediate metro away from any immediate coastal locations should hope for a weaker solution - the water temps are still too warm for an amped up solution which brings in that warmer air- we won't know for sure how this is going to play out until that Great Lakes low passes and HP moves into southeast Canada and if it is allowed to leave with the flow or stays put just long enough to provide cold enough air and keep the storm off the coast
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This is what I mean by 25 -50 mile adjustment 12Z Euro has snow accumulations now down into central NJ and part of Ocean/Burlington County NJ
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I wouldn't change the thread title till Sunday PM if needed - IMO this setup is not set in stone as 25 -50 miles either way makes a big difference..along with the position of the HP and how the storm cutting through the Great Lakes this weekend adjusts the location of the key players on the field....
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0Z Euro - a few days after mid-week event next weekend) has been showing up on various models last few days-colder airmass to work with-also will be entering MJO phase 8
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Can't make this stuff up 18Z Euro AI is still off the coast out to sea
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still a long way to go with this - flip flopping at this range is not unusual and 18Z runs are not as reliable as 0Z and 12Z some data could be missing that was included in 12Z who knows !
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on to the ensembles - but 0Z will provide newer data.........
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there is going to be mixing somewhere- these amounts are not accurate yet BUT GFS and Euro moved closer to their mean Ensembles - probably more adjustments to come
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good luck trying to figure this out - like I have been saying the GEFS,EPS and Euro AI never had an amped up system to begin with this is still 5 days away there will be more changes in the models,,,,,,,,,,,,
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thats even better ! Walt is going to have his work cut out for him trying to figure out how to explain all of this in the storm thread......
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the 12Z GFS is moving further south more in line with the previous GEFS everyone starts as snow in fact is snow ice in the metro most of the event
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Can you please be more specific with the dates - the first storm is this weekends or next Tuesday ? When is the second storm ?
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look at the GEFS and EPS and Euro AI - strictly going by OPS 5 days out before the next storm even develops and passes is not a good idea
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IMO its interesting for the mid week storm that the ensembles of the GFS and Euro are not amped up like the OPS. Also the Euro AI is still southeast with precip barely making it into the Metro as shown below
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Only positive out of this rainstorm next week is with an active pattern more cold enough air will be dragged in behind it since the GFS is leading the way in this pattern December 7 it produces this
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Canadian is now amped - Euro AI is barely a miss east Ukie is now amped as of tonight looks like a rainstorm in the immediate NYC Metro - areas to the north I-84 etc. still in question.
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The 18Z Euro AI has the storm closer to the coast now
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and the amped GFS solution is wrong now ?
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really different solutions between the GFS and most other models - IMO GFS is too amped and will trend further south and east similar to the benchmark solution it had previously.... and other models will trend west closer to that solution....18Z is a leftover 12Z solution anyways - newer data at 0Z
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Obviously not after 12Z run
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I would rather have the models where they are now this far out and after todays 12Z runs I think this will be snow/ice or nothing north of Philly at least - GFS is usually over amped to begin with..........
