NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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its working again Tropical Tidbits
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This says it all Cold and Active
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anybody else having issues connecting to Tropical Tidbits ? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
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yes - 2 favorite xmas's were 1966 and 2010 - 2010 because we were tracking the next day Boxing Day Blizzard - which is the first Major Snowstorm documented and discussed on this site 14 years ago.....who is still posting here from those days ?
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yes - but 95-96 takes the cake.........
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remember it well
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what makes you think those odds ?
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any model output past 5 -7 days is for entertainment purposes only IMO ..........
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Snow ended there what did they measure ? -
anything past 5 days on the models is pure speculation and not written in stone as some would lead you to believe around here.........proven so far this winter by many predicting a mild December..........
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All in All this is turning into a close to normal December in the metro - temp and snowfall..........and this will be considered a White Christmas in some parts of the metro with at least 1 inch on the ground
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how come Central Park most of the time has the lowest amounts ?
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Plenty of Blocking potential up north too.......
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Looks like Early January has the chance too out due Early December
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The end of the month warmup will be short lived as by January 2nd the cold returns
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its really difficult to get an accurate measurement anyplace during a light wet snow with borderline temps the snow melts on warm surfaces and it settles fast.....
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and the wind is picking up - sun and wind will rid the trees of any snow soon question now is will the temps reach 32 ?
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My question is who lives on this board in the city close to CP and measured their snow in the park or close to it?
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Does anyone remember how the NAM handled the Feb 16 -17 storm last winter ?
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I would define the coast in this situation south and east of the Raritan River in NJ and southern facing shores of LI and Staten Island. Inland all areas north and west of there........mood flakes area is mixed with rain
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One model 1 run BUT still shows a weak coastal in the benchmark track and energy from the clipper - its obvious as with many of these type events in mid December the place to be for more snow is from the Raritan River north and west in NJ which with the wind NE is a couple of degrees colder then points south and east - still plenty of time to go
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IMO anyone discounting any mesoscale model solution today ( the ones showing heavy snow or the ones showing next to nothing ) is taking a big chance........this storm is going to be a now casting event......with possibly a wide range in amounts region wide because of precip rates and precip type........
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agreed - anything is possible - no one was expecting that heavy slim west to east band to set up in the Central NJ during last Feb 16 -17 event - but could still go the other way with little or nothing - good chance though that this will end up being a now casting event watching rain - snow lines on radar and heavier precip developing changing to snow as the event wears on.........
