NEG NAO
-
Posts
7,490 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NEG NAO
-
0Z Euro Saves The Day
-
Canadian still says "What Storms" ? Not interested in developing anything - not a flake here all week
-
because it being 9 days out chances are its confused and wrong........and it is the 18Z with outdated input
-
Probably is a good idea IMO for Walt to start a thread titled "Winter Storms Potential January 6 - 12" so the January thread doesn't reach 50 + pages before January 1st.
-
Canadian stays south and off the coast
-
The Canadian is completely different with the storm still far south
-
11 days out too ! this is pure entertainment till we get into a reasonable range within 7 days at least
-
whens the last time thats happened in the NYC metro in a MECS or HECS ? IMO I would wait till the first of the new year to make a storm thread if the guidance is still showing a chance of a storm........
-
Then the gulf low rounds the corner up the east coast so now there is some agreement with the GFS OP and Euro OP BUT over 11 days out !
-
0Z Euro Jan 6th storm is strong and cuts west of us with lack strong HP in southeast Canada - cold blast follows as another storm is developing out west - then a gulf low develops
-
Until the Canadian and Euro and ensembles agree with the GFS multiple runs in a row on a snowstorm threat in January can't take the GFS seriously and who wants to be in the GFS bullseye this far out ? Sorry have to wait till we get into the 5-7 day range IMO to make a forecast...
-
and all depends where the split flows and we need a buckle in the flow to slow the raging pacific flow down which is going to transport the cold air this week very fast across the country to our neck of the woods.......
-
That storm might become the 50/50 low for the next storm if we are lucky and block the HP hopefully at least 1040 in southeast Canada...
-
and of course it was the 18Z - lets get a few runs in a row of consensus of individual and multiple model ops and ensembles. We all remember the Boxing Day 2010 Blizzard questions were still being asked within 2 days of the event of exactly what the outcome would be......
-
We will post the 0Z snow map too....its too bad all the models can't agree on individual storms this far out as they did with the coming cold blast Jan 2nd
-
yeah if its real - nice to talk about this far out thats about it = patience is the key word right now
-
The 6th Storm isn't cutting as much if the storm is even for real this far out
-
N D J F M Total 1980-81 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 19.4
-
fast flow and lack of strong blocking a 1028 retreating HP in Canada won't do it BUT still out of the 5-7 day range for accuracy
-
Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
NEG NAO replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Just saw this banter thread would be nice to change the title of the thread to Winter 2024 -2025 Banter Thread to make it more obvious ......... -
it is impressive IMO that the models came into agreement concerning the arrival of the colder air around January 2nd many days ago. BUT they usually have a much more difficult time agreeing on individual storms and tracks of storms as we all know from past experiences. So I don't think we will know for sure about any snowstorm potential until that cold air arrives again around the 2nd and will not iron out any details till days later.......
-
In a percentage how likely is the Euro weeklies I posted 1 post above yours to verify across our region ?
-
If Only Dreams Came True........
-
Well said ! Also I think everyone is entitled to their own opinion and if you want to debate it don't tell them to stop posting their opinions - debate it in a civilized manner
-
MECS are infrequent events in the immediate metro and we have had them in unfavorable patterns - impossible to predict if or how many SECS, MECS etc. etc. we will have in any given pattern...
