NEG NAO
-
Posts
8,804 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NEG NAO
-
I think the models are having trouble right now trying to determine exactly how far south the cold air will settle and stall - this will determine the boundary zone where the LP will move west to east
-
how many years have you been a hobbyist ?
-
GEFS still a SECS for the metro
-
stlll a SECS for the immediate metro and points north and west
-
agreed - but of course some folks here are ready to totally write off Mondays potential after one model run 5 days out
-
No model is King anymore - its just that "Every Dog has its day" and the GFS just had its day.
-
always go with the hot hand - which is the GFS lately until proven otherwise
-
March to come in like a LION ! GFS has been showing this run after run the last few days and the Metro is right in the middle of the precip field
-
especially if a subway line runs underneath that street
-
One of these years there are going to be quite a few MLB games postponed in March because of cold and frozen precip - Mets open at home March 26 ??? Ridiculous IMO..
-
Northof78 already opened one a while ago
-
Higher sun angle , direction roof faces and slope -temps above freezing yesterday and close enough to freezing today to promote melting- poor insulation just below the roof - solar panels etc. etc.
-
GFS makes the most sense - the Euro's don't .....
-
2/24 - 2/25 Clipper Obs (1 - 2" for many on forum)
NEG NAO replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Interesting BUT -
if that were to verify it would only be a SECS in many areas - I would discount it at the present time
-
I would rate historic as in the top 10 % of all time greatest snowstorms
-
this is now now casting time using radars and various types of surface reports and observations - I don't think any model can keep up to date at this time because of all the complex interactions in the atmosphere constantly changing
-
time will tell thats all I have to say
-
problem I see - the Nam cut totals at 12Z and the Canadian already had reduced total at 0Z Last night
-
this is a very complex set-up and there are going to be some surprises as we get further down the road today - possible extreme lifting - banding and on the flip side a large dry slot somewhere cutting off precip for hours
-
dynamics - rising air =lifting creating its own cold enough temps
-
there are going to be winners ( rising air - banding) and losers in this event (sinking air - possible light dry slot)there will be a wide range of total snowfall amounts region wide IMO - and impossible at this point to tell exactly where - begin nowcasting....
-
much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM
-
My question now is what is everyone's opinion on what could go wrong with this storm causing much lower snowfall amounts then modeled in certain areas ? One area I think that is overdone is the NAMS 42 inches on the Ocean County coast .
-
IMO its impossible for any model to pinpoint exactly where any extreme amounts will fall caused by banding - have seen that happen in many storms over the years.
