NEG NAO

its actually closer to the 84 hr. NAM which would probably be close to that 90 hour ICON - thats scary - maybe the almost totally out to sea idea was not right with better data being fed into the models now as we get closer

take it with a grain of salt until a non-mesoscale model agrees other than the CFS - NAM past 60 hours not accurate at all even under 60 hours

This is so close we are not going to have all the answers till at least Friday or Saturday IMO because there is a good chance of at least some snow in the Region

does anybody have the GEFS individual ensemble members graphic chart ?

which one of those numbers ( members) is the OP ?

also this is not an all or nothing storm for NYC immediate metro - still can receive advisory or WSW from this - I would lean toward throwing in the towel regarding a MECS or higher though

The Jury will still be out deliberating till at least tomorrow - all options on the table IMO

The Canadian and GFS are not set in stone as any adjustmet in those 250 mb winds or trough alignment can shift the storm just far enough west to impact the immediate NYC metro - it happened before the Boxing Day storm and no reason it can't happen again - have to leave all options on the table IMO - throwing in the towel today is a big risk..

the storm on the 12Z GFS does turn the corner off of FLA and redevelops right over Hatteras stalls and deepens - But then it hits a brick wall and makes a hard right turn - question I have is will the upper level pattern change and allow it to continue north along the coast ?

The 12Z GFS =

I don't know why some folks think this is going to be set in stone after todays model runs - review the AFD's posted from Don for the Boxing Day storm less then 3 days in advance of the onset of precip

Thats a RED FLAG right there - 3 KU's at the top ? - How does CIPS do with verification ?

not every storm around here is going to be major - most are not - expectations around this place get too high overall IMO

BUT - still have to consider this old saying "Every Dog has its Day"

I wish there were more METS like yourself posting in this forum to guide us through this potential for obvious reasons.........

glad you fully explained your reasoning

its the same out here in the suburbs on the side streets that are not snow emergency streets - they should have an ordinance that states you have to remove your plowed in car within a couple days but they don't - and who wants to have to stay home on the weekend snow bound ! Hoping for only a 2-4 or 3-6 max = sorry folks !

I don't think some people realize what a big deal this is going to be even if we only have a SECS with Arctic air in place and over foot of snow already on the ground - think about it - going to be difficult to plow and remove from driveways......

surprised its only 991 was stronger earlier ?? or was that other models ?

the ICON is a second string model at best - especially the OP version

BIG difference in accumulations from 50 to 150 miles if that is westward - doesn't make sense that there will be a hard right turn at Hatteras

and the kicker hasn't even been properly sampled that energy is still out in the pacific and the energy that will generate the trough in the southeast is still way up in Canada not properly sampled yet - so the storm right now is modeled to be right on our doorstep so expect changes as we get closer

doesn't matter how far west the trough is it has to turn negative sooner - if it stays positive the chances of the storm moving up the coast too far east increases

The key points to remember for today IMO 1. the key piece of energy that will generate the trough lalter this week is still far north in Canada and there is sparse sampling up there. 2. The trough down south later this week has to take on a negative tilt sooner than later and further west for this storm to get close enough to the coast to give us a major storm. If it waits to go negative further east the storm will ride up the coast further east. 3. The reason the trough has to go negative earlier and further west is because the upward motion in the atmosphere is on the northeastern flank of the trough promotes heavier precip and this will be centered over the metro if the storm is close to the coast and out to sea if it goes negative to late.

go back to 2010 here and research it -let us know