NEG NAO
-
Posts
8,668 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NEG NAO
-
the ensembles were never on board - no cliff to jump off of - lessons learned - use the ensembles past day 5 and discount the GFS OP especially - the Canadian doing the GFS nonsense was surprising yesterday and today at 12Z
-
these phase jobs are not easy to predict 5 days out - models will keep adjusting each day we get closer with new data fed into the models each day from the ever changing atmosphere - so what comes out of the models on day 6 or 7 could be many miles different in any direction by gametime - I would expect further changes in the next few days - might not even be a phase or one too far away and we end up with a few rain or snow showers.......thats one possibility
-
why are some other METS saying the -PNA/AO pattern is not favorable ? You have proof that it is. Maybe someone should point this out to Lee Goldberg - Steve D. and DT
-
majority of ensemble members have yet to fully support the OPS - except maybe an AI ensemble which is not a proven in the long term to be accurate yet - so they never actually lost the storm
-
I guess the METS that don't like this pattern for a storm don't agree that the -PNA/AO supports larger storms that Don pointed out last night - Don had proof of this
-
Also - its curious that the Canadian wanted nothing to do with the storm phase then all of a sudden last night at 0Z and again at 12Z did an about face with a blizzard solution -0Z runs and beyond should be interesting
-
agreed - I don't like that the ensembles give little support to these overdone OP runs - we have been down this road before 5 days out - time will tell
-
take precip totals with a grain of salt this far out - locations of heavier precip will change run to run and model to model
-
of course the configuration of the precip field is going to change on all models - still ends up being a MECS for most of the metro
-
My take on all the models is they all have their strengths and weaknesses - so I prefer using NBM (National Blend of Models)
-
This is from this afternoons Upton AFD: AFD from KOKX
-
First of all you are talking about an OP model - and you should list some examples supporting your case
-
you on board for a SECS or MECS ?
-
so you on board for a SECS or MECS ?
-
agreed - I wouldn't discriminate against any model in this set -up - BUT when I see the GEFS and EPS not on board for anything other than an advisory level event - thats a RED FLAG against these OP models advertiising a MECS + event
-
agreed also after reviewing all the 12Z guidance I would say IMO there is a 50/50 chance of a SECS and a 30 % chance of a MECS - what does everyone else think percentage wise ?
-
the eps is only an advisory level event
-
-
GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP
-
IMO all options still on the table - we are too far out to determine exactly when and if a phase will occur .
-
-
only if the block weakens and starts moving out of the way
-
thats the primary transferring its energy to the coast - Canadian showed that also - Miller B
-
When you issue them with one of your future forecast packages
-
thats an nteresting question ?-why is the GEFS horrible ?- I would be concerned but there is enough support from several other models to not worry yet
