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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    agree 100 % - I think too many folks are jumping the gun on this one based on 2 runs of a GFS OP and the 12Z Euro a complete miss of the phase and out to sea - need more support for the GFS solution to support a storm scenario......
  2. NEG NAO
    unfortunately until the Euro shows that it doesn't agree yet and the GFS can easily lose the phase at 0Z
  3. NEG NAO
    The 18Z is still using old data from earlier the real test will be when the new data is injected into the model at 0Z ........
  4. NEG NAO
    Bernie is confused too:
  5. NEG NAO
    now honestly which one would you put your money on ?
  6. NEG NAO
    if the Euro OP and ensemblles were even close to the GFS I wouldn't be discounting the GFS but its hard to get a phase with that setup. And we are only 5-6 days away
  7. NEG NAO
    of course the GFS ensembles will side with the GFS OP
  8. NEG NAO
    I meant the Euro Ensembles.........I am discounting the entire GFS Suite. Look how they mislead us on this event with all the amped up members
  9. NEG NAO
    no post them for us ?
  10. NEG NAO
    Euro and Canadian basically miss - GFS is wrong AGAIN as usual....NYC snow drought continues with no end in sight
  11. NEG NAO
    when is the last time it verified a MECS or greater over the last few years for our area ? Its shown them quite a few times over that time period
  12. NEG NAO
    IMO if the 0Z has 2 of the top 3 GFS, Euro and Canadian and at least one of their ensembles mean show a similar 18Z GFS scenario then start a storm thread but not until those conditions are met......,
  13. NEG NAO
    Because they are using Meteorology NOT Modelology.............models don't have the ability to predict exact accumulation amounts exactly this far out with banding and possible dry slot coming into play - this event is going to be a typical now casting event with surprises IMO
  14. NEG NAO
    Sounds like what happened last Feb 16-17 with that heavy band just south of I-78
  15. NEG NAO
    The 06Z Nam precip shield moved north about 30 -40 miles from the 0Z run and steadier precip doesn't enter the immediate NYC metro until mid- morning in Northern Middlesex/ Union County NJ so basically is still 2 days away.........see if this trend continues at 12Z - I would discount exact precip amounts on these model outputs right now because of heavier banding possibilities.....and drier slots - example - last Feb 16 -17 storm...
  16. NEG NAO
    Beginning to wonder IF by 12Z tomorrow the south shift over the last day or so will be reversed......and even move further north then before
  17. NEG NAO
    Read the Mt. Holly Afternoon discussion they think the precip shield is too far south and the shift south in the models was overdone
  18. NEG NAO
    They came around here in Northern Middlesex County spraying the roads with ice melt because Mount Holly said 40 % chance of snow this afternoon but Sunny here
  19. NEG NAO
    North Jersey is anywhere North Of Middlesex County - Central Jersey Middlesex County Down threw Monmouth County - Southern NJ Ocean County and points south
  20. NEG NAO
    the question is where is this going to set up ?
  21. NEG NAO
    that all depends where you reside in the region - here in Central NJ have to keep updated on this situation.......
  22. NEG NAO
    this is going to be another now casting event throughout the region - any shift 30 - 50 miles in any direction makes a difference along with banding that develops
  23. NEG NAO
    Modelology at its finest in here .............
  24. NEG NAO
    Giving up already 3 days out ? I thought you said the confluence always weakens as we get closer to the event ?
  25. NEG NAO
    exactly and we have been on this rollercoaster ride from one or 2 model run cycles in a row up and down and we still are close to 3 days away until showtime ....
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