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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    go back to 2010 here and research it -let us know
  2. NEG NAO
    why today ? I think we will be spinning our wheels today with the ops and ensembles arguing with themselves and with others - one other thing need to get that kicker out of the picture and the trough to go more negative
  3. NEG NAO
    post one
  4. NEG NAO
    models are in windshield mode now - IMO won't be for 2 or 3 days till we get solution we can mostly believe but not totally
  5. NEG NAO
    thats snowfall not liquid
  6. NEG NAO
    The EPS from last night showed a few inches - what evidence do you have that it will be all or nothing ?
  7. NEG NAO
    I don't even listen to them (all noise) - - only well known reputable METS - IMO have to keep all options open this far out
  8. NEG NAO
    to refresh our memory what are some of his credentials and how did he perform with this past weekends storm ?
  9. NEG NAO
    I would give it 72 hours at least - like the last storm no one is expectiing a HECS - a 2-4 or 3-6 is more reasonable IMO
  10. NEG NAO
    you can tell the GFS OP is out to lunch because the GEFS has no huge snowfall amounts south of us like the OP does - treat the OP like one of the ensemble members.
  11. NEG NAO
    EPS mean still delivers a few inches snow - ratio's probably higher than 10:1 - liquid QPF Map - don't have access to snow map
  12. NEG NAO
    Progressive flow caused by that LP vort near Minnesota moving east BUT is it right ? See if the EPS agrees with the OP
  13. NEG NAO
    The lp on 0Z Euro went from a 995 to a 983 stalled off NC coast in 6 hours - BUT 12 hours later deepens to 962mb moving east - weird solution and progressive flow that L near Minnesota is not a good signal with HP in southeast Canada - too far north
  14. NEG NAO
    The EURO AI moved east from 18Z - this thing has to take on a more negative tilt IMO.
  15. NEG NAO
    sounds like a flat roof to me - most of the sloped roofs lose the snow faster especially south facing ones
  16. NEG NAO
    it might not totally "miss" AND there is a reason a HECS has never verified a week after a MECS in NYC in recorded history . Very unlikely . BUT not impossible. IMO
  17. NEG NAO
    as far west as the Euro AI ? I think we have the windshield wipers on now regarding the models
  18. NEG NAO
  19. NEG NAO
    need that to go more neutral or negative
  20. NEG NAO
  21. NEG NAO
    yes the odds would favor that you would think - BUT it still can be a MECS at least can't discount it yet IMO
  22. NEG NAO
    I would assume that never happened in recorded history within a week of each other - in NYC. BUT it p[robably happened way back when in that area - Maybe when Moses was still wearing short pants........
  23. NEG NAO
    So this would be a once in a lifetime event(s) 2 MECS so close together
  24. NEG NAO
    For NYC have any 2 storms on record had accumulations over 10 inches each within a week of each other ?
  25. NEG NAO
    So what were the NWS final totals for each location ?
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