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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    regular GFS is usually suppressed or over amped at this range its Al version is supposed to be an improved version of the model
  2. NEG NAO
    with snowfall ratio's higher than 10:1 probably
  3. NEG NAO
    I bet Don has the answer to that one - or go back to Rays archive of storms which I plan on looking at once I get done shoveling......
  4. NEG NAO
    you should start the weekend storm thread ASAP not just because of the snow threat BUT also the incredible arctic airmass that will be in place starting later this week through the weekend.....and once we get past a certain number of pages break it up into part 2 - part 3 etc. etc. like we did for the 2010 Boxing day storm who's thread was started well in advance
  5. NEG NAO
    its not going to take much liquid equivalent over the weekend to create a SECS or MECS because temps in the single digits and or teens during the precip will cause very high snowfall ratios
  6. NEG NAO
    the most important factor is how these indexes and their strength is going to affect the path of the storms across the country regarding the strength and position of various pressure systems.......
  7. NEG NAO
    -6 850's area is one and HRRR guidance is another
  8. NEG NAO
  9. NEG NAO
    Thats why NWS has accumulations for tomorrow at 2 -4 inches and they hinted at more in localized areas in heavier bands.......Eastern NJ and points east
  10. NEG NAO
    check out your local NWS Upton County forecasts
  11. NEG NAO
    we started doing that during the Boxing Day storm Dec 26th 2010 which we were tracking for a week or more at least - go back and take a look at it
  12. NEG NAO
    Agreed Start an Observation Thread later tonight for Tomorrows event - this thread has gotten too long in the tooth so to say at 33 pages - back in the old days we would start new threads if they got too long
  13. NEG NAO
    the Euro had to play catch up this go around for tomorrow as of now
  14. NEG NAO
    just shows you how cold it is upstairs at all levels - good signal for tomorrow IMO
  15. NEG NAO
    be careful with the models using some snowfall 24 hour and total snowfall maps because these 2 storms this weekend overlap in them more or less
  16. NEG NAO
    just about ended here looks like around 2+ inches - probably 2.5 inches here today brings me to 12 Inches for the season - close to avg. season so far
  17. NEG NAO
    within a couple degrees of freezing most areas
  18. NEG NAO
    34.7 here light snow - no accumulation yet
  19. NEG NAO
    Thats getting close to a SECS and Winter Storm Warnings from eastern NJ and points east- is the west trend even complete yet ????
  20. NEG NAO
    going to have lower temps at night than currently forecasted with snow on the ground if that snowfall verifies
  21. NEG NAO
    flakes starting to fall here at my listed location
  22. NEG NAO
    how far south does it reach ?
  23. NEG NAO
    where ? these guys in Eastern PA will probably see nothing. I am only a few miles east of you
  24. NEG NAO
    very little eastern movement of this blob of precip to our west shutting out anyone east of Trenton to Baltimore - will it start shifting east ? I suspect tomorrows precip shield will also have the same straight line cutoff
  25. NEG NAO
    Mostly Virga in eastern NJ currently
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