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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    This is a litttle odd the 12Z Euro develops a LP southwest of us on the 19th moving NE and the 06Z GFS does the same delivering a snow event BUT the 12Z GFS doesn't have it
  2. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro is too far off the coast and 0Z Canadian is inland with mixing issues here
  3. NEG NAO
    12Z Euro more or less agrees with 12Z Canadian I like seeing that HP in southeast Canada also...
  4. NEG NAO
    at least its not the GFS showing it
  5. NEG NAO
    and triple the amount of school bus drivers - plus how are school crossing guards going to deal with working in the dark ?
  6. NEG NAO
    try and make sense out of this: Winters around here are impossible to predict snowfall in advance monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
  7. NEG NAO
    Deal ! BUT also post if its 32 and snowing
  8. NEG NAO
    when is the last time the hour 231 GFS verified ? The model is unreliable at best past a few days........
  9. NEG NAO
    Bad idea especially during inclement weather - you want your kid leaving for school at 7 am in the dark ?
  10. NEG NAO
    you'll get your dusting on Saturday
  11. NEG NAO
    so you agree we are going into a cutter pattern ? Consider the source you responded too- look at the guidance....
  12. NEG NAO
    the model solutions change on every model run - still 9 + days away out of forecasting range.......
  13. NEG NAO
    Need the ridge out west to move away from the coast into the Rockies for a more favorable snowstorm pattern along the east coast which would also favor a better chance of negatively tilted trough axis in the east......another crucial ingredient needed is a Negative NAO along with a strong anchored HP in southeast Canada....
  14. NEG NAO
    here we go again with the GFS long range
  15. NEG NAO
    so what ingredient(s) were missing ?
  16. NEG NAO
    then should ask Tropical Tidbits creator Levy Cowan why ?
  17. NEG NAO
    The GFS is a model loaded with mistakes in the coding which causes glitches in the output - also its obvious the GFS can't be trusted anymore past 60 hours and should be treated similar to the NAM - how many wild goose chases have we sent on with wrapped up blizzards several days in advance here over the last few years to eventually fizzle out in future runs ? That is what helped create this thread prematurely...
  18. NEG NAO
    Its obvious we aren't going to get much with a positively tilted trough axis
  19. NEG NAO
    this is as close Euro gets to us
  20. NEG NAO
    the 0Z Euro Suite will determine which side of the fence we are on with this potential and will have an impact on the BOM output,,,,,,
  21. NEG NAO
    have a comparison to 12Z ?
  22. NEG NAO
    I think it could be similar to todays event with the heavier amounts south of the area and 1 - 4 in the metro.......as of now....although any banding could produce 4 - 8 in those areas
  23. NEG NAO
    However you want to define it - BUT I am siding with the voice of reason on this one - Walt- he tells it like it is and doesn't wishcast.......
  24. NEG NAO
    its still hanging the energy back in the southwest right ?
  25. NEG NAO
    which models that are 0Z or 12Z ?
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