NEG NAO

like any other possible snow event - need more then 1 model and at least 1 models ensemble members consistent with it for at least a couple of days to even consider it.......models are still arguing with each other and even with themselves run to run - but its still fun to post these model runs with blizzards - GFS is King of the long range imaginary Blizzards - what was weird about the storm a couple of weeks ago was the EURO was the first to show an imaginary Blizzard many days in advance..BUT the GFS did not

its amazing how different the GFS and Canadian are along the east coast next weekend GFS has no sign of a storm and Canadian does

it would be welcomed though - can sit outside for awhile in the sun hopefully

so far - BUT we are overdue for a snowy March

I agree and also their warm biases during the winter

when you enter March predicting any weather event in the longer range becomes more difficult because its a changing of seasons - plus if you predict low 40's for a daytime high and it snows your prediction from 10 days prior will bust by 10 degrees at least

That map has no snow on it for a week in NYC if you run it from day 1 - what makes 10 day temperature maps more accurate than the GFS long range snow map ? There have never been any busts ? Never any differences in individual models ?

can you post some long range maps to prove your point ? Here's a snow map in the mean time

how can you predict the daily temps being in the 40's over 10 days in advance ?

if you are going to make statements that contradict what the NWS is predicting at least try and back it up with some evidence ZFP from KOKX

Can you imagine if that model is wrong ?

how do you get 40's and 50's from this on March 1 ?

yes its already Feb 20

Tonight 2 - 6 flakes Likely . Chance of flakes 70 % They used to call the TV Show Seinfeld "The show about nothing " the lasted storm thread was 59 pages about nothing" in NYC metro.. Amazing how all of us including Red Taggers and other color taggers and even the NWS get suckered in most times to believing long range range models..... usually it is the GFS leading the way but this time was the EURO

Sunshine Likely - 70% chance

huh ? precip is above normal this month at Central Park after this past weekend storm and another storm next week

that has to be some sort of record -- 12 snowfalls worth 16 inches........in one season

IMO I don't think we will have a good handle on this and how this is going to move up along the coast until the energy is transferred from the Gulf to the southeast coast and the precip field develops and how much territory it fills and the movement of it - and exactly how the upper low is behaving..........

Yes the NAM is based on the LP being dragged west by the upper low - but in this scenario even if that doesn't happen there is still more then 1 way such as the Norlun possibilities or just the strong dynamic upper low passing overhead of getting accumulating snow in NYC metro - I think Walts idea previously of 2 -6 inches powder is still on the table IMO.....

its an outlier right now but what if other models start bringing the storm back west just a hundred miles ??? makes a big difference especially close to NYC - still plenty of time for adjustments and as I mentioned last night the models have handled this storm poorly since last week also norlun trough and strong upper low has to be considered -- Norluns are difficult to predict in advance

IMO anyone who thinks they have a handle on this situation right now ___ _____ ______ ____ ___ ___fill in the blanks

This is the point at around 66 hours NYC metro has the opportunity of a period of steady snow as the northern stream feature passes overhead - unfortunately this northern upper level feature doesn't phase with the southern branch until too far offshore - all of the heavier snow down in the southern mid-atlantic is being caused by a strong southern upper level system

there will be changes in that snowfall map one way or the other since this storm is so disorganized and questions about exactly where the energy will be transferred to along the east coast and many variables regarding intensity and track and the size of the precip field and the chance of a westward expansion of any norlun trough that develops which could expand the precip field further west then modeled considering the models since last week have had a weak handle on this whole situation and the storm is still a little more than 2 days from reaching here and is in the early development stages out west and will be transferring energy at different points as it moves into the Gulf region and off along the southeast coast - impossible for any guidance to be accurate at this point IMO

Which locations are NW to SE since there are many differing opinions here regarding that ?

50 mile adjustment north and west = MECS in NYC metro --- lets see how many EPS members are 50 miles north and west of the OP