NEG NAO

how come Central Park most of the time has the lowest amounts ?

Plenty of Blocking potential up north too.......

Looks like Early January has the chance too out due Early December

The end of the month warmup will be short lived as by January 2nd the cold returns

its really difficult to get an accurate measurement anyplace during a light wet snow with borderline temps the snow melts on warm surfaces and it settles fast.....

and the wind is picking up - sun and wind will rid the trees of any snow soon question now is will the temps reach 32 ?

My question is who lives on this board in the city close to CP and measured their snow in the park or close to it?

Does anyone remember how the NAM handled the Feb 16 -17 storm last winter ?

I would define the coast in this situation south and east of the Raritan River in NJ and southern facing shores of LI and Staten Island. Inland all areas north and west of there........mood flakes area is mixed with rain

One model 1 run BUT still shows a weak coastal in the benchmark track and energy from the clipper - its obvious as with many of these type events in mid December the place to be for more snow is from the Raritan River north and west in NJ which with the wind NE is a couple of degrees colder then points south and east - still plenty of time to go

IMO anyone discounting any mesoscale model solution today ( the ones showing heavy snow or the ones showing next to nothing ) is taking a big chance........this storm is going to be a now casting event......with possibly a wide range in amounts region wide because of precip rates and precip type........

agreed - anything is possible - no one was expecting that heavy slim west to east band to set up in the Central NJ during last Feb 16 -17 event - but could still go the other way with little or nothing - good chance though that this will end up being a now casting event watching rain - snow lines on radar and heavier precip developing changing to snow as the event wears on.........

We can talk about it because in situations and setups similar to Friday night into Saturday and especially with a possible Norlons - models have a hard time handling those especially a couple days in advance IMO some areas will over perform BUT where ?

We will be entering Mesoscale model range tomorrow and it would just take a shift 50 -75 miles west for this to produce a light to moderate snowfall for areas in Central/ Northern NJ and possibly further east if temps are low enough to support frozen - on the other hand any small shift east gives us next to nothing..........

by Sunday morning wind chills single digits and temps in the teens ........month will avg below normal