Vice-Regent

You guys know how to do tropical. I miss the roaring 50s and 60s and I long for a 38' repeat.

For whatever it's worth the paper references the late 21st century and not now.

Good god... SLR and a change in TC climatology is the perfect storm for disaster.

That's how we roll in the Coastal Mid-Atlantic.

Crickets...

Late season dirty ridging is so dangerous because it is carrying the momentum from peak insolation. At least that's how I interpret the situation. Here is some perspective.

Well like many have been saying for some time. The Paleoclimate data robustly agrees with these new NCAR models. IPCC will ignore these findings at their own peril. They have yet to elucidate on a clear path for carbon dioxide removal or suggest the implementation of legislation that would allow climate engineering to become legalized. These are necessary if the IPCC emissions pathway is to be sustainable. Obviously with the inherent risks found in geoengineering we must be more aggressive in reducing deforestation and economic growth.

Weathering Carbon dioxide and the other atmospheric gases dissolve in surface waters. Dissolved gases are in equilibrium with the gas in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide reacts with water in solution to form the weak acid, carbonic acid. Carbonic acid disassociates into hydrogen ions and bicarbonate ions. The hydrogen ions and water react with most common minerals (silicates and carbonates) altering the minerals. The products of weathering are predominantly clays (a group of silicate minerals) and soluble ions such as calcium, iron, sodium, and potassium. Bicarbonate ions also remain in solution; a remnant of the carbonic acid that was used to weather the rocks.

More worryingly. A substantial aerosol forcing would reduce the already diminished TCR. It's easy to see the fragile network of dependencies in our dire situation. If we don't tread lightly we may find ourselves walking over the tipping point in the climate system and in our capacity to reduce atmospheric CO2 faster than the climate is responding.

Keep in mind the devil is in the details. The aerosol forcing continues to muck up the situation when we are extrapolating from real world conditions. Climate models are very accurate simulations of what we should come to expect. We know there is a massive threat from a ECS of 5.3C in the short-term and long-term prognosis because the aerosol forcing will inevitably be reduced. You may also come to understand why geoengineering is so dangerous due to three reasons. 1:) Solar-radiation management keeps the ECS value hidden indefinitely 2:) Geoengineering must be sustained for generations (more or less indefinitely) and finally 3:) Air-Capture reduces the incentive to prevent deforestation and restore a suitable amount of oxygen in the atmosphere and oceans. These models allow us to avoid the risky overhead of geoengineering by providing insight into how our world would function at specific GHG concentrations with the aerosol forcing removed. We should opt for de-growth modes of attack versus mitigation modes of attack.

New CESM2 runs are indicating that the most likely value for ECS is 5.3C: A. Gettelman et al. (16 July 2019), "High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083978 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083978 Abstract: "The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. ECS is an emergent property of both climate feedbacks and aerosol forcing. The increase in ECS over the previous version (CESM1) is the result of cloud feedbacks. Interim versions of CESM2 had a land model that damped ECS. Part of the ECS change results from evolving the model configuration to reproduce the long‐term trend of global and regional surface temperature over the twentieth century in response to climate forcings. Changes made to reduce sensitivity to aerosols also impacted cloud feedbacks, which significantly influence ECS. CESM2 simulations compare very well to observations of present climate. It is critical to understand whether the high ECS, outside the best estimate range of 1.5–4.5 K, is plausible." See also: Title: "New Models Point to More Global Warming Than We Expected" https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Models-Point-More-Global-Warming-We-Expected Extract: "Our planet’s climate may be more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas than we realized, according to a new generation of global climate models being used for the next major assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The findings—which run counter to a 40-year consensus—are a troubling sign that future warming and related impacts could be even worse than expected. One of the new models, the second version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), saw a 35% increase in its equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the rise in global temperature one might expect as the atmosphere adjusts to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Instead of the model’s previous ECS of 4°C (7.2°F), the CESM2 now shows an ECS of 5.3°C (9.5°F)." Courtesy of AbruptSLR (ASIF)

18z GFS on board now too? This looks promising.

Dry as bones here. We need some relief.

Why is this Greenland melt event a JFC moment? Sure it was forecasted for 2070 but that's such a small amount of time on geological scales. At any rate we should expect more melt events in the future on our journey to the inevitable future of restored order and stability in the Earth System and that implies the end of overpopulation and consuming 1.8 Earth's per year of resources. Weird flex and not how I would choose to fix the problem. Maybe there is some latent masochism or guilt complex inside of civilization or more likely ... nobody is in control.

Could it pull a Faux Joaquin at some point? Interesting days ahead assuming the TC in question gains a foothold. It's pretty early in the year for deep troughs so it seems Florida-bound.

Over here it's different because sea surface temperatures peak in August and the SST will determine the daily maximum. I think most of us would agree that using average temperature guidance in short-term forecasting will not help much or even hurt you these days. We haven't cooled down because of any seasonal progression. By and large high-end heat has been rare this summer due to the -NAO/-AO couplet and we had a regression to the mean. A reliable indicator of our seasonal pattern are the European temperature anomalies.

and this is with a -NAO/-AO couplet? That's completely unprecedented.

Does it seriously peak in mid or late July? That's incredible. Or are you saying this week is cooler than last week?

Just wait until the geoengineering comes online.

What is remarkable is how warm the East Coast has been especially south of NYC despite the favorable indicators for below average temperatures. (-AO/-NAO) The global warming signal is very strong and as a result the Hadley Cells are very expansive.

Short answer is yes. More like non-existent aside from sun angle changes. Although the aggressive warming near AK has caught my attention. It could throw a wrench into my prediction. I mean look at that insanity. There's like a 500,000 sq mile area of 7 C+ ocean anomalies. We are profoundly f***.

Western boundary ocean currents are among the first ocean regions to persistently warm above the long-term average. They are the primary mechanism in which excess heat in the system is transported towards the polar regions. The excess heat can only be explained by one phenomenon alone which are Anthropogenic forcings. I figured you guys already understood how potent the energy imbalance could become if left unmitigated. It's one thing to accept it and another to not understand it. and also for whatever it's worth we had our Warmest June globally on record. So there's alot of heat in the system.

The AGW signal is finally more than background noise riding on natural cycles. Such is the way of things at this time. About the 2016 Super El Nino. It appears to have amplified the AGW water vapor feedback loop.