Vice-Regent

The whole weakening bit was predicated on a disrupted or non-existent circulation. 20kts of shear is like a stimulating breeze for a well-developed TC.

With 3 days over the Southeastern Gulf I see no reason why this will not obtain hurricane status. The weight of memory is not enough to convince me that this is a minor threat.

A more diffuse circulation is invulnerable to any kind of land interaction. These things don't just dissipate from atmospheric memory this is a meaningful area of rising air and convection.

If you want a real vacation come to Cape May. That's all I got because Akeem knows what's best. You will get Elsa at her peak and a nice vacation at the same time.

There's no way the sea level pressure is 1011mb. I call BS on that and even if it was the case it will be short-lived.

Better than a direct hit 50 percent of the time. Better only if you like destruction. @Damage In Tolland

Cape Verde hurricanes are their wheelhouse. This is an early season ITCZ slopgyre those tend to ride low GOM-bound.

Actually not necessarily as onshore flow could dominate more consistently much like the climate of California. We are just in a bad spot right now with cooler oceans and high atmospheric forcing.

The combination of longer days and peak sun angle seems to be driving this anomalous statistical anomaly. Keep in mind days are only roughly 12-13 hours long in the tropics. Not to discount warming elsewhere but this really shows the futility of thinking you can escape the heat so to speak or that north equals colder.

1937 was before we had aerosols en masse. It's all starting to make sense now... interesting nonetheless.

Against what? Clearly these semantics are a bit silly when considering the acceleration of atmospheric processes.

Even if it doesn't become a bonafide TC will deliver more than most TCs. I can see potential from miles away.

Historically significant period coming up for Severe wx in this region. I can sniff out the big ones.

That disturbance south of Bermuda should bring something to your area in 7-10 days.

Mother nature treating us well this morning. Only for the best... you know how I feel about the west coast.

I trust my instincts over the EURO and we are looking at a significant influence from the tropics.

Very well said my brother. Honestly this is a relief for me to see such wisdom propagate across the internet and eventually the world. We need to escape the ideological bubbles which only act to our detriment. No solutions presented to date have ever promised a shade of viability (we need that cooling shade now more than ever). It's retooling broken and patch-work mentality that we are fighting to survive against not climate change. That's unfortunate because our best years are now and we are squandering them. Civilization is an evil construction. I don't think many here would disagree whilst enjoying modern conveniences. The problem is civilization is an idea not a structure or country it's a self-propagating idea which is not readily destroyed. Only something as massive as climate change can break the back of civilization forever.

Claudette is creating subsidence over our hood. Funny how that works... always something.

He's using this as a means to disqualify the idea based on the bad merits of a few opportunists. While it proves that he is here on good faith sadly the world does not operate on good faith. The main obstacle facing conservatives is realizing that they handicap themselves by trying to work from within the system to achieve the change they desire or worse yet doing nothing and expecting the system to self-correct. Synergetically combine the best of both worlds in the hope that you can actually overthrow the system (liberal pathology) and build/maintain something to replace it (conservative pathology). Or better yet don't replace it with anything and let nature run it's course. We are all guilty worldwide in some respects we've bloodied our hands and we deserve everything coming to us. Not only this we went to war with the very people trying to save us and sided with monetaried interests and slave drivers hoping to get our piece of the pie so to speak which does a huge disservice to the sacrifices of the people who actually want love and prosperity for this planet.

Such actions would result in the death of millions. I don't think that much blood should be payed for civilization but if it was going to happen anyway I guess go for it.

The IEA reports: Global energy demand is set to increase by 4.6% in 2021 – led by emerging markets and developing economies – pushing it above its 2019 level. Demand for all fossil fuels is on course to grow significantly in 2021, with both coal and gas set to rise above their 2019 levels. Oil is also rebounding strongly but is expected to stay below its 2019 peak, as the aviation sector remains under pressure. The expected rise in coal use dwarfs that of renewables by almost 60%, despite accelerating demand for renewables. More than 80% of the projected growth in coal demand in 2021 is set to come from Asia, led by China. Coal use in the United States and the European Union is also on course to increase but will remain well below pre-crisis levels.

Don't want to dig a deeper hole for my posterity. I know for certain that civilization is destined to go into terminal overshoot.

Too many liabilities for too few people. I am ready to dump my investment in civilization. It's no different you seem pretty capitalist minded.

We are losing the ability to mass mobilize on an industrial scale in part due to COVID and resource shortages which are soon to be real shortages quantitatively. Economic prosperity is extinguishable. Just burying enough CO2 to keep CO2 concentrations stable is not enough. We would lose all coastal cities to rapid sea level rise. Put simply ... we waited too long and as a civilization we are losing the ability to provide people with a decent quality of life which negates the whole purpose of a civilization.