KoalaBeer

Went from drinking a nice IPA on the porch while playing some acoustic guitar in the sun to that fog rolling through in a matter of minutes. Not great...but I’ll take it over being in the southeast right now!

Just doing a real quick guesstimate that’s like what 6-8 mile southeast of the tornado that passed through earlier?

Ya agreed, looks like junk on normal reflectivities but velocity scans are still damn impressive. That’s a rough spot for a radar hole. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if that’s still producing a significant TOR considering its history....back to mostly lurking for me. Stay safe down there today and keep the great posts and info coming.

Quite a bit cooler in Hampton today then I was expecting. Still plenty nice enough to fire up the grill later though for the third day in a row! Also wishing for a good outcome for our friends in the south. Birmingham metro is under the gun in a bad way. ~65dbz debris ball on this sucker as well

Great points havoc and great conversation, it’s why I love this forum. I would say most people would recognize the SPC maps even if they don’t know the agency by name, maybe that’s a different problem in itself. We are definitely in the niche here and sometimes that’s hard to remember. TV Mets like Spann do a phenomal job putting it into layman’s terms. Having said that I’d still love to see a change up of how the SPC issues it’s enh/mod/high outlooks. About to join a long conference call for work so I’ll have to take off for a while but I hope to hear more suggestions.

I’m well aware of that, but does that convey the right message to anyone but weather nerds or meteorologists? Does the general public really look at a D2 MOD outlook and say “Shit this could be a really bad time tomorrow?” Talking with my friends and family that’s a huge no. But I’m born and raised in the northeast, perhaps I underestimate the weather folks are prepared for in the Deep South. Edit: I feel like these people are also relying on local media instead of the SPC as well, which honestly might be a good thing.

My only gripe with this (no matter if you fall on the more conservative or aggressive side of this forecast) is the absolutely absurd scale in place. What percentage of the population is looking at the discussion compared to just looking at the overall rating? The SPC shouldn’t have to issue a high risk to convey the risk at D2 but I think maybe they should because saying “moderate” doesn’t concern the ceiling of this outbreak at all. Why write in “violent long track tornadoes are possible” if we are just going to say mehhh, this is moderate aka literally meaning average.....

Ya definitely not cheap, and not trying to drag politics into this to much but obviously it is intertwined. The cost is minuscule even if it only saves a few lives. I’ve read it cost somewhere like 1.5 million - 2 million a year just to keep one active duty service member in Afghanistan. We could spend our money in better places, but I don’t want to beat the bush here and ruffle to many feathers in this thread...it’s prob best saved for a discussion at a different time.

That’s absurd, I did not know that...with the insane amount of money we spend on other things that’s just crappy our politicians can’t agree on something seemingly smart and simple. And obviously the NWS is a government agency, but does congress really have that tight of control on the budget? I figured they approve a certain dollar amount and then it’s up to the NOAA/NWS how to allocate or am I grossly mistaken?

Current trends don’t support long track violent tornados overnight in my opinion. Sure as hell hope I’m right. Nocturnal violent tornados are straight up nightmare stuff in the southeast. Either way hope all the folks down there stay vigilant and stay tuned into the warnings through the night. Worse atmospheres have produced way more serious TORS then what we have seen so far.

Ha! Not a TOR but Selma getting hammered again by a supercell. That’s just outright insane what they’ve gone through today. Would love to see a zoomed in loop from today’s radar from there.

I mean come on is this the third time today Selma has at least had a decent shot at a tornado? Just ridiculous in terms of the probabilities of that happening... There was definitely that one confirmed earlier.

Choo choo the tornado train. F having this aimed down your doorstep.

Ya bad choice of words on my part, but looks like Jackson area could be good once the line passes through. One TOR warned cell on that line but not to impressive on velocity scans.

From earlier today. Looks pretty big but the base is obscured by the hill...from what I’m seeing these tornadoes don’t look super intense but there’s sure as hell a lot of touchdowns. That’s obviously a premature observation with a long way to go, hopefully it stays that way. Anyone else think MS might of kinda dodge a bullet as well? The main line of storms is getting ready to move through Jackson. https://mobile.twitter.com/meteodon/status/1372299928018558980

Yup, that’s all I’ve been watching from this system. Going to be a long evening down south and tomorrow looks nasty as well. I don’t give a crap about this storm here...screws over any of the ski areas from late season snow which is all I care about this time of year.

Damn, first time checking in today, real busy day at work but wow this is shaping up nasty. Some of those cells popping in MS are looking no bueno...won’t be surprised if the cell approaching mount olive produces soon.

Yup pretty much my point and like jpeters said Moore and Joplin weren’t exactly screaming Ef5 potential on those days.

Don’t really ever post in this forum, just the New England one or Tropical weather ones. However with this set up tomorrow anyone saying there WILL or WILL NOT be ef4 + tornadoes tomorrow need to check themselves. I understand this is a forum for discussing weather but definitive statements either way aren’t going to hold much weight. What was it the Ef-3 Nashville tornado that hit on a slight risk day during nighttime? This environment is much more volatile, but doesn’t mean it actually produces. End of the day tornados are a process on such a micro basis no one should be using a model run to assess the intensity of future tornadoes tomorrow. Just my two cents, I hope everyone stays safe tomorrow.

SPC having some fun with the drawings today.

What a boring stretch of weather. I was at least enjoying the spring conditions on the slopes, but looks like it’s going to be brick up in the mountains after the cold front. At least it’s fun to track the cutoff low in the west right now. PDS TOR warnings for the panhandle. That’s one violent TOR by Amarillo. Where’s @weatherwiz !?

OT but what I would give to live back in Boulder CO this weekend. I rented a house there with some buddies right at the base of the hill were NCAR is located. Unfortunately in my time there we never got smoked by a real big upslope storm and I moved back east a week before the 2013 epic flooding. Should be some good severe wx to track on the plains for the first time in what seems like forever as well.

Hovering around 29-30f on the coast here with a thin sheet of ice on most everything. Roads are fine however. I’m not sure the WWA is warranted here for coastal Rockingham county. Expecting this to flip over to all rain quickly when it begins in earnest.

And the Avalanche calamity continues, pretty much at a loss for words. East facing slope which is exactly what the highest danger was on the rose, and riding alone. WTF is it going to take...and it wasn’t even the only avalanche fatality in CO today. Some very close friends have pretty much hung up there backcountry gear until spring out in CO. Edit: I want to point out I don’t think this rider was actually riding the slope that slid, it probably came down on top of him, and with it being a partial critical bury it was possibly survivable with a partner present. https://avalanche.state.co.us/caic/acc/acc_report.php?acc_id=780&accfm=rep&view=public

Nice that’s awesome. Weenies across the whole US rejoice.