KoalaBeer

Dorian racking up the ACE for the Atlantic and still has a way to go. Should join the pretty exclusive list of Hurricanes producing more then 40 ACE. Year Storm# Name Dates TC Active Max Wind (kts) MSLP (mb) Named Storm Days Hurricane Days Major Hurricane Days Accumulated Cyclone Energy 2019 1 ANDREA 5/20-5/21 35 1006 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4 2019 2 BARRY 7/11-7/14 65 993 3.50 0.25 0.00 3.3 2019 3 CHANTAL 8/21-8/21 35 1009 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.5 2019 4 DORIAN 8/24-9/3 160 910 10.00 6.00 4.00 35.0 2019 5 ERIN 8/28-8/28 35 1005 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4

Ya it would have been close I think. Plenty of videos out there that seem to show a 20ft plus storm surge and thats what the NHC put out in there warnings as well. Hopefully he checks in at some point today. Here's the map I pulled the elevation from.

Here is the location on google maps if I'm right. https://www.google.com/maps/place/26°32'23.0"N+77°04'47.0"W/@26.5402011,-77.0780259,2958m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d26.5397222!4d-77.0797222

From what I've gathered this is where he was located. Roughly ~25ft ASL. Looks like a solid structure but appears like its only 1 story tall. He's on this persons search listed as not found but who knows who reported that. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M9wVx_Krgzb2cycTOGF4ZsS5JDrvRGwggCblUGtq6II/mobilebasic "Morgerman, Josh (Central Abaco Primary School, Marsh Harbour, @iCyclone)" I'd take it with a grain of salt for now. Josh knows what he is doing and like you said in previous extreme storms he's gone days without contact.

Looking at the ensembles it looks highly unlikely. It is just really tough to sneak a storm into New England coming up from the southeast US like that. I can see Canada happening though.

I saw a few small branches down on the west side of town around forest/pelham st along with some quick flash flooding that quickly subsided. Nothing big that I saw though. It was a fun storm, tons of lightning and some brief hail as well.

Ya I spotted a little rotation. Pea size hail in Methuen.

I should get it good here shortly.

Watching a huge fire looks like it could maybe be at Lawrence airport. 125 is closed down completely and girlfriend said they are calling in hazmat on the scanner. Edit: sounds like it’s actually the trash / recycling plant according to a cop I just talked with.

Station went down before the worst hit. https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/yesterday-93062.html?areaCode=000&groupCode=65

I'm not so sure about that. The radar suggests they only clipped the outer part of the eye wall. I'm sure it was still a rough ride but not as hellacious as that inner eye wall.

How about that for a trochoidal wobble.

Little bit of rotation just SW of Providence but nothing strong enough to be TOR warned yet.

Seems like I’ve been right on the edge of the rain all day.

Actually doesn't look that bad right now, I could see a PTC being issued but still isn't going to develop more then a TD. Any impacts are going to be roughly the same as already advertised. Edit: No PTC but odds up to 60% now on the NHC update.

From an WMUR article...Dr.Dews? I must admit I am a little bummed we aren’t going to see any good convection out of this. Oh well, another day at the pool sipping on IPAS then. HAMPTON, N.H. — Extreme heat draws crowds to the Seacoast, and people packed Hampton Beach on Saturday for relief. “This is my favorite time of the year,” said Seth Hinson. “I hate the winter. I can't stand it. I wish it was 100 every day.”

That 84 in NW Iowa . Looks like that station was 90/86 for a reading if it's to be believed. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KSHL&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Time (CDT) 2.0m Temperature ° F 2.0m Dew Point ° F 2.0m Wet bulb temperature ° F 2.0m Relative Humidity % 10.0m Wind Speed mph 10.0m Wind Gust mph 10.0m Wind Direction Pressure in Altimeter in Weather conditions Visibility miles Ceiling feet Quality Control 13:55 89.6 84.2 85.4 84 17.3 28.8 SSW 28.18 29.67 Clear 10.00 OK 13:35 89.6 84.2 85.4 84 20.7 27.6 S 28.17 29.66 Clear 10.00 OK 13:15 89.6 86.0 86.8 89 15.0 24.2 S 28.16 29.65 Clear 10.00 OK

KBED at 90/72 with KLWM AT 84/70 man has that site been running hot lately.

NWS BOX throwing out the D word in their latest discussion. SPC still doesn't have us highlighted at all yet. Friday through Sunday ... Hot and humid. H85 temperatures around +20-22C, H7 around +10-12C. But concern. Steep mid-level lapse rates around Saturday, a lot of low-level instability. Shear vectors and orientation that suggest that if something were to become organized over Michigan within the region of steep mid level lapse rates and advect that perhaps we could see MCS / derecho activity Saturday and Sunday. Initial thinking, but nothing set in stone. Initial indications per 17.12z NAM and 17.0z EC, but not much indication in SREF / GFS. It would subsequently impact 2m temperature with cloud cover altering the heat and humidity forecast. Typically when we get the heat and humidity where highs alone approach triple digits do we see via climatology MCS / derecho events. Continued forecast of mid to upper 90 highs, some locations at or just slightly above 100 with dewpoints in the low 70s as boundary layer moisture is trapped beneath the cap, fueled by S flow, yielding heat indices around the triple digits, for some locations at or above 110F.

Looking at radar trends I’m a little concerned about training storms moving in towards Worcester.

Hah no worries, it looked like it was tightening up quick to me! Stuff moving towards me in Northern Essex is looking pretty lackluster right now. Oh well

TOR warning for the cell going into W Mass just got issued.

Same with this one W of Pittsfield.