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cardinalland

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Everything posted by cardinalland

  1. cardinalland
    the storm of interest around Tday has no antecedent cold airmass, so I don't see a pathway to big snow accums south of 90/495. It's an NNE event. But it looks like depending on how it evolves, it could push plenty of cold air into the area for the week after
  2. cardinalland
    hmm my experience has been a little different... i feel like wrap around precipitation like this one has often panned out, but yep filling in on the back end (especially behind a frontal passage) is much rarer than models indicate
  3. cardinalland
    just walked on the porch with a cold beer and said “we needed this”
  4. cardinalland
    Does anyone know of a source of data for EPO forecasts that's updated daily? I can't believe it but I can't find anything for it on the web!
  5. cardinalland
    i will definitely be standing on the porch watching the rain fall and saying "we needed this"
  6. cardinalland
    Decided to have some fun with data and correlated NYC snowfalls in December with temperatures around the world for the last 44 years. The first map only has statistically significant correlations and the second shows all. I guess a cold Plains and Midwest corresponds with higher snowfall around here. I probably didn't need to run the numbers to figure that out but here it is anyway. I was surprised by the western Canada correlation...
  7. cardinalland
    Decided to have some fun with data and correlated CT snowfalls in December with temperatures around the world for the last 44 years. It's CT but that maps well to SNE at least. The first map only has statistically significant correlations and the second shows all. I guess a cold Plains, Midwest, or northern US corresponds with higher snowfall around here. I probably didn't need to run the numbers to figure that out but here it is anyway.
  8. cardinalland
    nice anticyclone and there’s some developing convection on satellite. i imagine after a TD forms in a day or 2, it’s off to the races unless it moves over land
  9. cardinalland
    geefus unleashes a monster… high potential here
  10. cardinalland
    after March 10th we may have a shot of something in seriousness if a big cutter type system does end up developing, i imagine many of us in SNE will see first flakes from some cold pool snow showers
  11. cardinalland
    yeah, these systems are interesting because they are sitting there in the gyre waiting for something to pull them out in some direction. Looks like most models have it going NW and then E right now, but I could also see a Central America landfall
  12. cardinalland
    If the Carib system becomes a hurricane, it will become the 12th in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Only four other Atlantic seasons have seen this quantity of hurricanes on record: 2005 (15), 2020 (14), 1969 (12) and 2010 (12).
  13. cardinalland
    This season has the 13th highest ACE since 1950 (so out of 75 seasons) which puts it in the top 20% in that period. To reach the top 10% it would have to attain an ACE of 182, which is unlikely but not impossible given the anticipated slow movement and high strength of this new system. Either way, we've experienced quite an active season. To reach top 10 in this period an ACE of 166 is needed, which is likely.
  14. cardinalland
    this is getting absurd. and all of these include today’s rain event (except the GFS which includes like half of it)
  15. cardinalland
    we froze here in new haven. i didn’t expect it this weekend but it happened! let the winter festivities begin
  16. cardinalland
    i'm assuming the week before thanksgiving around 11/21? could see some kind of east coast storm action with a -NAO/-AO/neutral-ish PNA
  17. cardinalland
    this month, you could say San Diego! It's funny how almost every storm this month seems to be crossing our longitude at 50+N. We've gotten a cutter or two but I wonder when we'll get our first apps runner/coastal/clipper... anyways next couple weeks seem to be continuing with the "cuts so far it's off the map" theme
  18. cardinalland
    down here in tropical new haven i’m still waiting on a first freeze. latest on record is 11/16 and beating that record looks like a lock
  19. cardinalland
    looks like this storm is gonna push us over the 160.1 ACE hyperactive threshold this is why not to call bust on a hurricane season too early
  20. cardinalland
    i wonder how much digital snow we’ll get this season maybe there should be a contest for that
  21. cardinalland
    i think 2 suns would get the job done, tatooine style
  22. cardinalland
    I'm not sure what the problem is, I think the post aligns pretty well with your statement. One could say it's sensationalized a little bit but that's just twitter for ya
  23. cardinalland
    tropical moisture may be our best bet in this region right now. it's the only way any model shows us getting rain
  24. cardinalland
    KNYC 9" KLGA 9" KJFK 9" KEWR 11" KBDR 13" novembtorch decembtorch jorchuary forchbuary morch
  25. cardinalland
    Sandy was a week before election day but I know it still complicated things here in the NY Metro
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