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BNAwx

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Everything posted by BNAwx

  1. BNAwx
    Should drive up to the parents house in Cookeville....
  2. BNAwx
    I don’t think here just east of Nashville that we’ll see any anafrontal changeover. I’m more interested in the energy coming in behind it on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. If we get anything, I’d say that’s where it comes from. Considering how cold it will be, it won’t take much to at least whiten the ground if we can get under a decent band.
  3. BNAwx
    Not betting on it. Mood flakes FTW!
  4. BNAwx
    Considerably better for the eastern part of Middle TN to the Plateau as well.
  5. BNAwx
    For numerous runs, the GFS ensembles have had that strange fingerlike accumulation map. Weird...
  6. BNAwx
    My son mentioned this earlier tonight. I would have loved to see it. I have an acquaintance that has a super-duper amateur telescope and I wish we could have have finagled our way over there to view it.
  7. BNAwx
    I could live with that. Just give me some mood flakes and I’m good.
  8. BNAwx
  9. BNAwx
    I’m sure reality will prove me wrong when it’s all said and done but it seems like the base state this year is to be average or cooler than normal. Projected warms ups are somewhat muted in the long range. Last year, it was the opposite. We kept expecting cold to take over but it never panned out. The MJO screwed us over last year and never looked back. I hope this is one of those rare years where the NAO and AO regions continue to cooperate. Over the past few years, a Bigfoot sighting is more likely than those two indicies lining up. Maybe we’re finally due.
  10. BNAwx
    Courtesy of griteater. Euro control Jan 2nd - 29th Lawd have mercy... https://mobile.twitter.com/griteater/status/1338685577621872646
  11. BNAwx
    I believe Carver said (correct me if I’m wrong) that we need a fresh shot of colder air into our area for these currently borderline systems to produce wintry weather outside of the favored elevated areas. I believe we’ll get that around Christmas give or take a few days. The question is how long it sticks around and will any trough that develops be oriented in a way that allows the cold AND moisture into our area. I personally would like any trough to line up SW to NE to give us an overrunning type set up. I think that’s a good setup to get a board-wide wintry event. Having a low with a January 1988 path is a lot to ask for these days but it certainly would be nice.
  12. BNAwx
    As long as we can hold on to the warmer waters in the NE Pacific, I think we’ll be ok. That should give us intermittent opportunities for some cold to be dislodged whenever the PNA decides to spike. If we can hold any Atlantic blocking and slide the ridging into the EPO region, we could be looking at some brutal cold heading our way. I could be way wrong but I don’t see the PV being locked in an unfavorable position for the entire winter like the last couple. I’m also liking the MJO forecasts. It doesn’t seem to want to stray into the warm phases (and strongly at that). I certainly don’t think that’s a bad thing depending on other factors. I would’ve really liked to see the subtropical jet continue but being a Nina, I guess that was too much to hope for. However, it’s winter in the South and all it takes is the slot machine to line up just once and it can make it a memorable winter. Anyway, I follow you guys often, especially this time of year. Not much time to post anything of merit. Great analysis by all and I hope we as an entire forum can have something noteworthy happen this winter!
  13. BNAwx
    I’m currently 46/23 here in Nashville. Just hoping we actually get some precip up this way.
  14. BNAwx
    Freakin’ NAM. Pulls me in every time...
  15. BNAwx
    That map is a throat punch to Nashville...
  16. BNAwx
    Hoping the NAM isn’t just NAMing us right now...but even the globals have been inching precip more to the NW as we get closer in time.
  17. BNAwx
    I know that often times the northern extent of the precip field isn’t forecasted very well by models. I don’t know if that would/will apply in this situation but it would be nice. I also think there’s room for this to trend even further to the NW. We shall see..
  18. BNAwx
    Ground white in Hermitage. Looks like we’re going to get under one last heavier band any minute now..
  19. BNAwx
    Yep. Some very light snow here in Hermitage.
  20. BNAwx
    From an observer, Dyersburg has light snow and 33 degrees....
  21. BNAwx
    MEG putting out advisories now.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 727 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...Winter Weather Advisory for much of the Mid-South tonight... .Rain will quickly change to snow. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses will become slick. ARZ028-036-MSZ001>009-014-TNZ003-004-019>022-048>055-088>092- 071200- /O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0002.200207T0300Z-200207T1200Z/ Mississippi-Crittenden-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn- Tishomingo-Tunica-Tate-Prentiss-Union-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson- Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison- Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin- Including the cities of Blytheville, West Memphis, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Iuka, Tunica, Senatobia, Booneville, New Albany, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington, Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah 727 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of less than one inch on grassy surfaces. * WHERE...Portions of North Mississippi, West Tennessee and East Arkansas. * WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. eather Service Watches, Warnings & Advisories
  22. BNAwx
    36 here just east of Nashville. Just hoping we somehow get an "over-performer" for once...
  23. BNAwx
    May have to go visit the parents in Cookeville in hopes of seeing more than a wet flake or two.
  24. BNAwx
    I was wondering the other day how models generally perform in “la nada” years and if the lack of a strong signal from that region is the reason modeling has waffles around so much this year...more so than normal it seems. I think we would’ve had more stability in modeling and perhaps a better outcome this winter if we would’ve had a true El Niño. I haven’t looked a SST forecasts but hopefully next winter we’ll actually have a weak or moderate El Niño to work with. I’m not saying winter’s over just yet. I usually give it until March 15th then after that, I’m ready for Spring...
  25. BNAwx
    If it were March 23rd, you could bet the house it would verify this time..
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