Do models feed in 6-hr-old data? According to the NAM, the most potent part of the s/w in question seems to be onshore at 06z tonight, so when would be expect models to have good sampling?
Ah I think I understand? Because we don't actually have a perfect image of the data, we create mutliple plausible assumptions? And the OP uses some iteration of that? I guess physics equations are pretty much of a constant lol