Henry's Weather

That's a great look. I love it when the 540 line is back across the Great Lakes during winter storms.

Transition to a blocking period is gonna be tough for the models I'd think. Perhaps this is a gross understatement haha

I get this from an operational forecaster's standpoint, but from a snow lover's standpoint, this pattern still holds serious potential, no? Even if the models can't handle the huge artic anoms and even at risk of suppression, this has got to be a better pattern than what came before it. I do notice that large PNA ridges produce more consistently around here than periods of blocking.

How's the SSW coming? Is it legit? I assume that affects Feb more than Jan if so.

Coatings on car roofs, nothing much elsewhere.

If I had to guess, I'd say this system has a good chance of missing us all, but I think the lower mid-atl has the best shot. Going to be marginal temps though.

I think I understand why this happens (referring to the s/w in Ontario): Two areas of HP merge near Labrador, "squishing" a portion of that 50/50 low down south. I finally understand what @Typhoon Tip meant. I actually suggested this in my long post a few days ago, but back when today's event was progged to strengthen, it kind of rammed the higher heights northward, towards more favorable places. Another consequence of that scenario would've been no Ontario s/w, because the H5 energy of the cyclone would be more tightly wound (again, the new term isohypse can be used here) and thus, no stragglers to be squeezed off the main low pressure.

Such an interesting look on the GFS. It looks like the remains of our "storm" today eject a pinball s/w which dives through Ontario as mjo781 mentioned. I think that even if that s/w wasn't there, there still would exist too much traffic upstream (or downstream?) in the PAC, which prevents a strong ridge from popping out west, which would itself cause the s/w to dig more and therefore, turn up the coast sooner. Also allows for potential northern stream interaction, stealing the snow from our mid-atlantic neighbors once again. Is a block over Labrador really THAT much worse than a block over Davis Strait?

Let us know if it's legit

Seeing it categorized helps to put this storm in perspective. Solid, once-a-year event for the NE but nothing extremely special outside of the death deform band. Thanks for posting.

That's exactly it. All weenies are emotional, but you all have less, so the highs and the lows are more extreme.

System so putrid there's no separate obs thread, haha.

I think the NE thread is neurotic and then I come here and I realize I have it good near BOX. Lol

Hey, I'm in the MA thread! This probably works out better for yall than for us in NE.

Pretty clear-cut southern stream SECS/MECS on analogs, which makes sense given the slightly southernly location of that block, as tip mentioned.

Illustrates the risk that y'all in the mid atlantic might be slightly better situated for this one

Why? There seems to be sufficient wave spacing to allow some downstream ridging. It seems workeable to me, a non met...lol.

Probably due to easterly winds off the water

Had a nice burst of mood snow here... got to see a kid walking outside with his father get really excited and try to catch them on his tongue. It's the little things

GEM is a pretty messy setup and still almost scores. Slow dancing s/w under a massive block. That would be one hell of an angular momentum problem.

Holy crap. That's seriously legit, strong s/ws. Anyone have Jan 2015 H5 maps handy? Just curious, I though that one was similar in terms of polar stream s/w location. Manitoba origin.

Alright, can this be moved or do I make a new post?

What I'm about to say is unscientific obviously, but this year seems like it might be fruitful. Highly anomalous event in December, big block pattern in January. I think we'll get at least one more chance at a KU, my intuition says mid-Feb (after some relaxation late Jan). Some years just have the juju. Gimme the weenie tags.

Idk, still worried about that unfortunate isohypse spacing... lol. At least I tried.

coup for me as well. whatever. On to the next