Henry's Weather

That storm hurt, I was hopeful for a flip-over for a few hours with such a strong storm.

Nice to have an actual threat to track in the 5-6 day range

That Para output is incredibly weenie-ish, with 18 inches in Essex county from the norlun.

Although not really. Lol

Seems to lead to a nice setup for the 1/29 threat though

I have a hypothesis that I'd like to test for the next upcoming weeks: I think if New England is to get any decent snows, the primary needs to track at or north of Detroit. Anything lower will be a whiff because of the strong, southern block. Just posting this here to verify later.

is that not a suppression look verbatim?

Stolen from another thread:

Ah I see, a dictatorship of the mods. They'll never remove our banter thread!

Vladimir?

I thought it was a nina thing to get strewn-out shortwaves, no?

fallacious

gambler's fallacy

I think what you're describing is something like Feb 2, 2015?

Euro sucks for the 26th

Moderate event on gfs for 1/26 verbatim. Late, sloppy transfer.

Ah, gotcha

Probably meant meteorological winter

Quite a few, yes. If we don't snow by Feb 1, I might just become one myself.

At least it seems like we'll get some cold air soon, which is definitely an improvement. Looks like the -EPO shot didn't disappear as we approached it in time. 4 days out, and solid -2 to -2.5 sigma values still forecast, and seems to stay at least slightly negative through almost the end of January. Cross-ensemble package agreement here.

My guess is that we should see more misses than hits for the next couple weeks but if this becomes n-stream dominated and we cut out that stream of s/ws from the SW, the upside increases for a nice miller B event into February. It's patterns like this that make me wish models only went out 5 days. Constant barrage of s/ws in a decent pattern, but many miss. Can be frustrating as a model-watcher. We'll probably get a decent hit with that anomalous NAO (though not as foolproof as a good pac, still positively correlated with snowy patterns) but the specifics aren't clear yet, of course.

I just wanna see flakes in the air and some snow on the ground at this point.

that forecast hr panel is not the best, I agree. Needs a slider

pivotalweather has it out much earlier than TT

Read my mind...