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Henry's Weather

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Everything posted by Henry's Weather

  1. Henry's Weather
    There were also a few events in December as far as I can recall. Very solid winter
  2. Henry's Weather
    Me and the missus get back from Iceland on the evening of the 24th, so hoping this becomes a boxing day redux
  3. Henry's Weather
    Who are you?
  4. Henry's Weather
    Got any proof to share sir?
  5. Henry's Weather
    My instincts tell me to close the curtains till after New Years
  6. Henry's Weather
    Yeah, regio beta paradox. Institutional entrenchment
  7. Henry's Weather
    Yeah I don’t really know about the energy economy at scale, but if forecasts are consistently a few degrees more accurate, then of course energy companies would prefer those forecasts because over the long run, they are more prepared to efficiently provide energy
  8. Henry's Weather
    Seems like it’s worse at vorticity but better at geopotential heights. Worth noting also that 20% increase in temp forecast accuracy three days out should have sizable implications for the energy industry, no?
  9. Henry's Weather
    From Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9#Fig3 “As shown in the scorecard of Fig. 3, the forecasts of GenCast are significantly more skilful (P < 0.05) than that of ENS on 97.2% of our 1,320 variable, lead time and vertical level combinations (and 99.6% of targets at lead times greater than 36 h)“ Seems like a significant improvement on its face, would leave the more technical analysis of the graphic to those more knowledgeable
  10. Henry's Weather
    Right. Instead, we just sit here, look at 360 hr charts, and go like “aw shucks, hopefully it’s wrong” because we (or maybe just me personally) can’t put our finger on the driving causes
  11. Henry's Weather
    I feel the same way, would be awesome to have my finger on the pulse. I’d imagine you’d have to have about 17 data sites saved in a folder that gets checked daily, along with probably a weekly long-term blogging practice. Otherwise, important signals get lost and the whole enterprise isn’t even worth it
  12. Henry's Weather
    In other news, it seems that that Alaskan ridge might regenerate after a mid-month warmup. We also enter phase 7 in late Dec, but we may need to wait a few weeks for any other good chances
  13. Henry's Weather
    There’s a degree of schadenfreude that NYC folks can get when New England snow lovers get disappointed, because they themselves are so used to missing out. Especially during otherwise favorable +NAO patterns. It’s best to just let them troll as they cry in 50 degree average high temps
  14. Henry's Weather
    Attention-seeking behavior is for kids!
  15. Henry's Weather
    We were just there over Columbus day - hope you got to chat with the art vendors down the alley there
  16. Henry's Weather
    Nice insight
  17. Henry's Weather
    Hopefully this is good analysis, Webb is somewhat of a prosperity preacher. If he is wrong, he can lean on the “likely”
  18. Henry's Weather
    I call it “biblical traffic”. Yeah, that was one hell of a commute back. We got through 5 episodes of the S-Town podcast during the latter half of the commute, for some perspective. Some of my friends opted to perch out the window and smoke cigarettes during the crawl. Was a pretty all-American day for us, and one that I won’t forget ever.
  19. Henry's Weather
    I was almost certainly in the same exact traffic jam - we left Groveton NH at around 4:30 and arrived in Cambridge at 2 AM
  20. Henry's Weather
    Woah… how did we start arguing about the senate?
  21. Henry's Weather
    Off topic, but what benefits do you get from running?
  22. Henry's Weather
    Atlantic optimal, pacific suboptimal, especially considering CC decrease in baroclinicity. Accurate summary?
  23. Henry's Weather
    I’d be a fool to expect otherwise, but there does exist some opportunity for an event somewhere. Obvious caveat: it is April, chances of something appreciable in SNE are sub 5%
  24. Henry's Weather
    Big neg NAO reducing, PNA pumping. There’s a shot at something for sure
  25. Henry's Weather
    Ho lee shit
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