Henry's Weather

white rain in West Concord

maybe forkyfork works for them

Signed on the dotted line

Ill be in Seattle from the 27th to the 2nd, so we'll definitely get a storm in that time frame

wonder what the litetature is on increasing angular momentum due to temp increase. Seems logical enough to me.

yeah im aware

Sometimes I wonder why we do all this fussing over anticipating an inevitable outcome. From an outsider's perspective, it's pretty irrational behavior. For those who aren't meteorologists/ interested in actually forecasting and/or those who get disproportionally emotionally invested in fantasy computer images (ie. the neurotic types), it might honestly make sense to not track storms and just enjoy what comes at a day-by-day level, save for a BOX discussion or two. Unless you have meaningful friends on this site, then the story changes. Just thinking out loud a little.

Is what I've circled the baroclinic zone? First off, what is a baroclinic zone and second, how would it be prevented from escaping east?

Huh... the GFS seems to ever so slightly reach neutral tilt sooner. Note the placement change of the 540 line. It's miniscule difference but it can be shown by a slight enhancement at the surface compared to 18z once the system gets going

I get you, but that large of an axis shift within 60 hrs is not trivial, so it'll be interesting to see the changes at 18z and 0z

Sizeable improvement here with the trough axis and structure. This is without a doubt a hopeful development.

Can we make an informal rule banning the creation of threat-specific threads prior to 72 hrs out, with the rare exception of consistently modeled day-7 MECS like 2016/December 2020?

yeah, I didn't mean to imply that it isnt, if that's how I came off. Still a little tenuous for people right along the coast right? Anyways, that's a minor detail at this point.

As a coastal dweller (college in Cambridge), I'd want that high west of Maine to avoid easterly winds, but favorable look nonetheless for pike on north on the 18z GEFS.

You need to start with the assumption that nothing special will happen with a system, because that's true 95% of the time. Just logically, not every threat can be a "severe blizzard", so why always forecast one? It boggles my mind. I honestly don't understand how you can handle the instability of being so relentlessly "optimistic" about systems, since you're so often wrong. At some point, you'd think you'd become more conservative, just to avoid disappointment. Significant systems are quite rare. Your understanding of a typical SNE winter should not be informed by highly anomalous years like 2014-2015 and 2017-2018, which I'm assuming are some of the years that you grew up on. Learning to dissociate your forecaster self and your snow weenie self as best as you can is a very worthwhile goal. I had to learn this skill, and am still trying to improve in this aspect.

one of my favorite storms of all time, just because of how it snuck up on us.

18z GFS's evolution is functionally identical to the ICON, which the low closing off in Central PA and swinging eastward. Pretty sweet look.

I'm thinking that this might also have P-type issues verbatim for the coast, unless the northern energy keeps digging, which seems dependent on the amplitude of the western ridge

Quicker phase incoming

right rogut, forgot abt pivotal.

We need some pictorals for those of us too cheap to buy...

It is nice to see ensembles shift west and tighten a little, even if for only one run. Feels like we still have about 3-4 days to go before we start worrying about anything other than H5 configuration. It's fun to have something to track again!

I respect the gumption. And I agree with you about the ridge positioning, that's a good point. But everything has to go right for this to work man, and I think you might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

What is going on here, GFS takes a fish storm 50 miles west on November 29th and we're talking 4-8"?

While typical early-season stipulations apply, the antecendent airmass is pretty anomalously cold