Henry's Weather

GFS 24 hr precip from 12z Thursday: Wide swath of .1 to .15 northwest for my region, metro west. 24 hr precip from 12z Friday Worcester east gets .05 to .1 You are technically correct about a pedantic detail from the most progressive piece of guidance. Excuse me that I didn't differentiate between .1-.15 inches of crappy low-res QPF output from .05-.1 inches of it. NAM 12km before the storm: Metrowest has, let's say, .05 inches of antecedent precip. NAM accumulated QPF up until 12z Friday: metrowest has .2 NAM accumulated QPF by 18z: metrowest has .3 Congrats. Guess what all other guidance has though? NAM 3km antecendent: .2-.3 for metrowest NAM 3km total up until 12z Friday: .5 for metrowest NAM 3km total after: .75+ RGEM antecendent: .2-.3 RGEM total before 12z: .4 RGEM total after: .75-1, exceeding 1 in spots. EC 24 hour accum before: .1-.2 EC 24 hr accum after: .3 Don't accuse me of not being able to read a map, saying I can't think for myself because of twitter meteorologists. Laughable.

About half of those are pretty desirable outcomes, which are odds that I would take

You are wrong, all models have the bulk of snow where we are between 8 and noon. We do not live in New Jersey.

Friday morning but yeah

I live in ESNE, not the case for us. Unless you swear by the 3km NAM at hour 48

Why are we bitching so hard? It looks like we'll get at least a moderate event, and we haven't had basically anything yet... Why so attached to the romantic idea of a bombing coastal, crawling and doing loop-de-loops south of Montauk? Not every storm has to be +3 sd intense. Just enjoy the several inches and be glad that it's snowing in the daytime.

Is this a similar storm to the superbowl storm last year, synoptically? Just curious

maybe like east of 495 up into Nashua and down towards Providence

Not only are the mesos still waffling between moderate event and significant event, the ensembles still have a west-based spread. Even the euro's unattractive solution from 0z features a consolidated piece of energy rounding a neutral to slightly negatively tilted trough, pointed directly at NE, or at least east NE. It's hard to conceive a solution where we don't at least get some solid snows for a few hours.

Operational models switched places at hour 84 in a progressive flow? Color me shocked. Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles until Wednesday afternoon.

It could be less active than the main one, as people will still want to interact like usual. But some purely technical discussion would be cool.

Agreed, its not worth fretting over details at this point. It's better to just let the baroclinic zone and the west coast ridge do the macroscale work

yeah, i would love a thread where mets just discuss

Why the JK? that sounds great

Very strong cross-ensemble agreement of signal for a coastal 4-5 days out. Do not live and die by the vicissitudes of the operational runs, because we have like 3 "trends" to go before game-time. This system is also an emergent of a jet displacement on the west coast resulting in a +2 SD change in PNA value, so it has strong synoptic support.

the evolution on the Euro is beautiful, with a clearly defined baroclinic zone set up by the previous system with high pressure building in fron the west, while a SW is funneled right to where it needs to be to snow. Synoptically textbook significant/low end major event.

reminds me of 3/14/17

Canadian runs it right up the gullet

And it's also winter time. It snows during the winter. Our pattern isnt exactly like 1972-3, 2006-7, 2011-12 or similar years, so just probabilistically, it will snow. At some point. Maybe.

yeah I can't really see anything special, unless somehow PNA and NAO regions flex at the same time. It's pretty far into tenuous theory land, but I wonder if since the RNA has been so pronounced that when/if a regime change to +PNA occurs, we will see an increased chance of something significant just because of the magnitude of flux.

taking a macroscale view and letting what comes come, assured that we'll eventually get the goods, is far easier on the ole' limbic system

Looking at the long range, if we eventually make the flip from a -PNA/NAO pattern to a +PNA/NAO pattern, we have 4 potential Archambault chances, with the both the Pacific and Atlantic changing? With all that cold to our west, we'll see something significant in the next 20 days, I'm sure of it.

Oh god, we need some snow, lest we start reminiscing about Boxing Day on the main thread