Henry's Weather
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Everything posted by Henry's Weather
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If we could just move that closed contour over a select couple of bereaved Taunton dwellers, we'd be in the clear. It's so close to being so much better -
I'm thinking if the H5 evolution more or less holds we have maybe 3-4 hours of heavy precip, and then moderate precip for another couple
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agreed
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yeah, I wonder if this ocean storm somehow ends up phasing earlier if we'd have stauncher confluence
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Also, is H5 considered upper level and H7-8 midlevel? Just for jargon-understanding purposes
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I think I see. So at this point, since H5 appears so unfavorable, we are banking on surface redev to help keep winds from turning SE and washing away our WAA snows/also prolonging our WAA snows?
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Can a willing met explain the basic physics principles behind secondary LP development? And what that might mean for this situation, what with the H5 track so far west? Eager minds want to know
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considering this is basically a banter thread, for better or for worse, yeah
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does closing off the mid/lower levels prevent, for lack of a better term, upper level energy (?) flowing northward unencumbered with the shape of the jet? I'd guess that it's meaningful in terms of wind fields and how different levels of the column change temperature. Am I kind of understanding? I still don't get exactly what would cause closing off to happen.
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what about closing off 850 mb heights indicates/causes a colder situation?
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GFS ticks east, GEFS tick west. Just isolating trends in the american models, we appear to be narrowing the goal posts between and outer-cape track and a coastal plain hugger.
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I'm not a met so you know more than me, but didn't the surface low being more east verify, but we were hit with the H7 deform?
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Golden
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Oh well. Pattern is long. I remember how painful the first storm of March 2018 was because I was delusionally hopeful for evaporative cooling. A few days later, we got a foot and a half, bookended by two half-footers.
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I mean, I'd be lying to myself if the GEFS doesn't keep me interested in the threat, but as of now, it's a far eastern outlier. Plus, doesn't GFS/GEFS have a progressive bias?
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yeah, not wasting time on a storm which most guidance has tracking over ALB. If it becomes a positive surprise, yay
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Not sure if its been posted, but GEFS snowfall mean is very pleasing to most
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I wonder how often these events trend east in the modeling from D4-5 to event time. Especially Southern stream fueled ones
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Would be funny if the euro missed OTS
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jeez, look at all those 970s
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Really gorgeous snowfall out there
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Yeah it seems like we dont get enough time for heights to rebuild after the polar shot on Monday
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I'm with snoski, I'm more intrigued by the potential element of surprise for Thursday than a day 8 or 9 threat, even if the signal is promising.
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No way, I just moved away from West Somerville! Where are you at, generally?
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If you didn't have this board, you'd be happy to over-shoot the NWS estimate
