Henry's Weather

That's def a statistically significant clustering, nice to see

I haven't checked anything since last night's EPS run, so upon skimming through the models, we seem to be at a better or similar point to last night, small model shifts aside

Absolutely unreal. I don't think I've seen something like this before.

It's completely locked in for major cyclogenesis on EC. I'm not sure if I could fit onto 2 hands the number of sub 960 mb lows within 150 miles of the BM. Goodnight.

Ludicrous

Yeah, probably worth a weenie realignment after that dopamine jolt: regardless of potential, we are 5 days out. A week ago, euro had us dusted by a MECS today.

h-bombogenesis

profile pic

New pfp?

It's tough to do, but it's def the right approach. March 2017 was like that for me, want to avoid that feeling

This just might do it!!

AHHHHH

Euro is gonna be a hit I believe

This is something I've noticed: the GEPS seem to follow the OP more than the euro and american suite. I wonder if they feature a smaller range of perturbations

yeah that is not an attractive ensemble mean

Prayer circle for member 12?

Lots of coastal scrapers on the GEFS, should be wary of that

Still nowhere near the bombed out solutions on the 18z ensembles, but yet a nice warning event for ENE, tells you about the upside for this system

Hope you're in the process of a write-up!

BOX AFD: "It is Fri night into Sat night where the confidence in the forecast really starts to dwindle. Recent deterministic global model runs have showed varying solutions both in track and strength pertaining to a developing coastal storm near the SE US coast, induced by a potent shortwave trough along the Gulf Coast or Carolina coast. The deep amplitude and location of the longwave trough near the western slope of the Appalachians in most models indicates an inland track is a less favored outcome. This is reflected in GEFS/GEPS/EPS ensemble mean low track being more offshore near or SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Only a small minority of individual members show an inland track; while most members reflect a coastal/offshore track, there`s large spread in the members in terms of how close to the SNE coast the storm may get. Have mention of PoP across all of SNE for Fri night into Sat night; but sided PoP to slight or low chance northwest of I-95; then to more solid Chance (30-40%) near the coastal plain to the offshore waters. This isn`t the final answer, and expect changes to come to these as well. However this should be a good starting point with adjustments up or down as more coherent and consistent trends develop in the coming days. What we can say is that it is looking like a coastal storm should be somewhere either over the Eastern US coast or offshore in the Fri night to Sat night timeframe, but it`s far too uncertain to lock into any solution given the location and strength spread in the ensembles. Sunday however looks dry or with improving conditions but uncertainty from Fri-Sat night lingers into Sunday too. Stay tuned!"

Yeah maybe if she was a snow weenie obsessing over QPF model output 6 days out. But who are we to blame her?

mannnn I hope youre right about the 12z JMA from yesterday being the most synoptically congruent because I'll take 3 inches of noreaster QPF imby

it's a comforting thought

only 7.5 days to go!