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Henry's Weather

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Everything posted by Henry's Weather

  1. Yeah, the period of greatest ensemble utility isn't just a superstition. The closer to an event we get, the better and more reliable data we get, so we don't need to do these prognostic functional transformations to our numerical models because we have much less of a sampling error risk and spread to account for.
  2. I just want to take a moment to acknowledge the absurd rate potential for this storm. To illustrate this point broadly, I've attached a sounding from the 12z 3km NAM. The column isn't completely saturated, but the DGZ is ridiculously long and the lift is also broadly strong, as opposed to spikes which move erratically within the column. Sorry for the crop, this site has a very low capacity to handle uploads, frustratingly enough
  3. This is nuts, it's gonna be one of the big ones. It's been a while, since I don't consider March 2018 to be a bona-fide blizzard. And during the day?? What a thought. Perhaps it's a tad early, but it seems like my area makes out like a bandit on both extremes of the model envelope, so I'm substantially less neurotic about these next 3 days than would seem "warranted"
  4. Not to get carried away, but it seems like we might have a 12 hour window of heavy heavy precip, bookended by 6 hour periods of moderate precip. It's not everyday that you get that. In fact, it's not even most days.
  5. This seems to be shaping up as a storm which starts in the wee hours of Friday overnight with that WAAish precursor precip, and just blasts a CCB from mid morning to early evening, with heavy snows continuing into Saturday overnight. Solid 24 hour precip event
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