Henry's Weather

18z RGEM has a better orientation… lol

This cracks me up every time I see it, what was the story behind it again?

Yes… guilty

Attachment is the root of all suffering George

Ah, so traffic upstream is why no matter how far north the storm initially gets, it always gets shunted east. A clean phase would maximize latitude then?

Is it accurate say that our “best gains” may come from pushing that confluence over Newfoundland NW?

06z GEFS, hour 114 (!!!). post-mortems about a storm 4-5 days out with 30% of the ensemble envelope being a massive hit is insane to me. Trends are trends, but we have about 2.5 more days for meaningful trending to occur.

The entire continent of Europe has decided this is the weekend to search for Amelia Earhart

Let’s just get the pieces on the board, think we have another 36 hours before our nrn stream piece is entirely turf, not surf

No, not outside of a competent golfer’s swinging distance. Let’s hope God deploys prime Tiger this fine week-end

Hear hear, maybe lets get DeepMind to build a superior AI weather prediction machine, since it has trounced all competition in the fields of chess and go. I trust Demis Hassabis with my life (and my social credit score if it comes down with it). Those brits sure know how to make a computer do their bidding, even if they euthanized Alan Turing because of that skill

We await EPS, not the shift we wanted from Europe’s flagship numerical weather prediction model

It’s easy to confuse disappointment (true dopamine reward vs. expected reward) with real information

If I had to bet real money, I bet it’ll essentially hold serve, with maybe a 50 mile buffer each direction. We will see, because the venn diagram for restfulness and weenie-dom is comprised of two separate circles

God, how the hell are we supposed to sleep? I get that we have exactly zero control over the outcome, but why do our bodies have to force us to bear witness??

… I’m just kidding, I’m as guilty of that as the next

Good to see we kept a quorum of participants out on our side

Unfortunate to see the OP runs deteriorate. However, this was true, both at 12z, 18z, and now: OP runs should be considered pure theatre until ~72 hours before the first flakes would fall. It is best to tracks ensemble trends at H5

We should take this disco over to its specific thread, courtesy of Tip

H5 orientation took a step back this run, a shame. We wait for ensembles

Alright, model talk can go here!

Somebody stormvista us!

Looks more like 12z.

Someone ought to train an AI that takes deterministic and ensemble guidance 180 hrs out and predicts the likelihood of a significant event. This can be sort of our threat barometer What would need to happen: 1) Define sig. event (average precipitation of .5 over a 48 hour period for some given area) Parse all modeling data that preceded sig. events and train the AI to find model trends that correlated more with an event occurring than with non-sig weather. Might be cool, Would be interested if someone here is an AI research or user to verify my methodology