Henry's Weather

I think what's super interesting is blocking decay/reload patterns. How a block decays and retrogrades or doesn't retrograde. You have a great point about how absolute anomalies are not indicative of dynamic interactions, like the kind of dynamic interaction that Archambault looks at. What would be cool is to look at the coincidence of NAO/AO Westward decay and a PNA spike (positive delta) (there's probably literature out there about that), simply because that's a signal that's being born out in the ensembles for mid-Dec.

is 1997 this type?

Gotcha. I wonder if there is a more useful numerical heuristic out there, just to start to get a decent analogue set to pick the best fits from.

Some modified cP air, not fresh artic stuff. It'll do, but not the prime stuff

One limiting factor seems to be an absence of cross polar flow. I know others have pointed this out, but worth repeating. Not gonna be highs in the low 20s on the coastal plain

Someone should do some sort of data parsing to find periods that are -3 SD AO in December

Delicious. Can't draw it up better. No seasoning needed mm mm MM.

Yeah, my hypothesis was that increased warming leads to decreased polar-equator twmp gradient since GW tends to disproportionally warm the north pole, causing the increased disruptability (more variable 500 mb heights for ex.). I wasn't disputing the warming aspect.

Excess warming leads to decreased polar-equator temp gradient, which might mean that zonal flow is more disruptable (as less of a temp gradient means jet is weaker). Pinging mets for verification.

Thats nuts

This is a weather discussion forum, not an academic journal

I feel like you totally can

nowadays I just don't sleep lol

Now enjoy that vacation!

I used to wake up at 4 am to catch the beginning of the local news whenever there was a storm coming

"Too many indices, not enough mics"

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

just look at it. its cold

I'm probably biased because Mac's throwing motion is fugly

It's so frustrating to see Belicheck go with Jones over Zappe bc of experience, when it seems to me (a complete non-expert) that Zappe is just clearly better. Small sample size and all still applies I guess, but Belicheck's preference for the known over the unknown seems to be showing here.

Zappe seems to have "it". Mac doesn't. He's too stiff and formulaic, can't adapt to situations fluidly. There were plenty of throws where he just anticipated the WR would keep going, not noticing how CB leverage or whatever else was disrupting the route. Think of that one endzone fade he threw to Meyers when it was clear there was no way for him to get to the ball.

I don't remember, is that indicator a find of Cohen's?

I'm not sure the informational relevance of Siberian snow cover anymore, but September snow cover was largely above average across Siberia https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2022&ui_month=9&ui_set=2

November looks like a gradient look, not super (anomalously) cold. December looks better. Both look wintry