Henry's Weather

Me and the missus get back from Iceland on the evening of the 24th, so hoping this becomes a boxing day redux

Who are you?

Got any proof to share sir?

My instincts tell me to close the curtains till after New Years

Yeah, regio beta paradox. Institutional entrenchment

Yeah I don’t really know about the energy economy at scale, but if forecasts are consistently a few degrees more accurate, then of course energy companies would prefer those forecasts because over the long run, they are more prepared to efficiently provide energy

Seems like it’s worse at vorticity but better at geopotential heights. Worth noting also that 20% increase in temp forecast accuracy three days out should have sizable implications for the energy industry, no?

From Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9#Fig3 “As shown in the scorecard of Fig. 3, the forecasts of GenCast are significantly more skilful (P < 0.05) than that of ENS on 97.2% of our 1,320 variable, lead time and vertical level combinations (and 99.6% of targets at lead times greater than 36 h)“ Seems like a significant improvement on its face, would leave the more technical analysis of the graphic to those more knowledgeable

Right. Instead, we just sit here, look at 360 hr charts, and go like “aw shucks, hopefully it’s wrong” because we (or maybe just me personally) can’t put our finger on the driving causes

I feel the same way, would be awesome to have my finger on the pulse. I’d imagine you’d have to have about 17 data sites saved in a folder that gets checked daily, along with probably a weekly long-term blogging practice. Otherwise, important signals get lost and the whole enterprise isn’t even worth it

In other news, it seems that that Alaskan ridge might regenerate after a mid-month warmup. We also enter phase 7 in late Dec, but we may need to wait a few weeks for any other good chances

There’s a degree of schadenfreude that NYC folks can get when New England snow lovers get disappointed, because they themselves are so used to missing out. Especially during otherwise favorable +NAO patterns. It’s best to just let them troll as they cry in 50 degree average high temps

Attention-seeking behavior is for kids!

We were just there over Columbus day - hope you got to chat with the art vendors down the alley there

Nice insight