CheeselandSkies

Argh. Deepens way too far to the east of us compared to the 06Z 10/20 run. Just raw crappiness, no fun weather for the north-central Midwest (WI/N. IL/E. IA/E. MN).

Proper inland hurricane right there! Been a while since the last one that actually delivered the trifecta of significant impacts - svr, winter and synoptic wind. We'll see...

This is already way more significant than the May high risk.

If I recall, it happened with the wave that became Irma two years ago, but that wasn't quite as deep into Africa when NHC first mentioned it. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

The general consensus I've read seems to be the 500mb pattern will favor recurves east of the CONUS the remainder of this season, but of course never say never when it comes to the weather and October is when things often spin out of the Caribbean and get nasty in the Gulf as we saw with Michael last year and to a lesser extent Nate the year before. I don't know how much difference it would have made rain-wise for Beaumont, but with the way it spun up, imagine what Imelda could have done with another 24 hours over water.

That little green hole near/north of the Abacos and Grand Bahama... Still, presumably quite a bit smaller than it was 10 days ago.

Monday night/Tuesday morning I was driving in to work (3:00 AM start, lived in an apartment a block away from my work until the end of August but am staying with my gf at her current place across town until our new lease starts on the 14th) in a torrential downpour most of the way. Saw the lights of a utility truck in the distance as I turned onto the street. As I got closer I saw that it was half blocking our employee driveway. A big tree had come down taking out some power lines. We were on generator power and my old apartment building was blacked out. More storms this morning, sun's out now with a blue box in effect for an expected later round. So far September feels stormier than May and June in this neck of the woods!

SPC says "meh" with just a marginal risk in place for Day 2. Keeping an eye on Wednesday locally but would like to see the front slow down a tad so it doesn't end up a LP of Michigan event. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

...and Wisconsin.

As they say in Ireland..."Whale oil beef hooked!"

That year we actually had some decent tornado events (not including Iowa troll days) in this part of the country by the end of May. Particularly the 10th and 30th.

Ugggggh, if it was two hours earlier I'd be out chasing these things.

Which it did...and largely busted as we know. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

If Monday holds serve from the 00Z suite, I suspect it will break the streak.

I give up. We don't get significant tornado outbreaks anymore. Mother Nature is just trying to drown us.

I didn't used to mind but this decade particularly the latter half has gotten me to that point. I officially hate living in Wisconsin.

Just once during the spring I would like to feel a true tropical (like 80/75) airmass being advected in on a screaming LLJ the night before a high risk day. My money's on it's not going to be this one. Chasers trying to stay optimistic for late May but I'll believe it when I see the >200kt GTG couplets on radar. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Yup, that's the one. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I was up in your neck of the woods yesterday. I found this little park in Doylestown and walked through the grass, it was like a marsh. With every step water squished out of the grass, soaked through my shoes and into my socks. The soil literally can't hold any more moisture. The Wisconsin River is very high. As bad as last August was, I am quite concerned that southern Wisconsin is primed for another flood disaster as bad as or worse than 2008 if we get into another ring-of-fire pattern with training MCS activity at point this spring.

Already took Wednesday off to facilitate chase possibilities that afternoon due to potential being shown into parts of the upper Midwest (unfortunately my range will still be limited since I couldn't also get Thursday off and work starts at 3AM). Still, if the setup tanks you can blame me.

Say, -EPO, where abouts are you (general area is fine if you don't want to say exactly). You've mentioned in several posts your disdain for a northeast wind, so I'm guessing on one of the Lakes?

I hear ya, but still plenty nice out here and will be through the next week. Just a little quieter than I like to see in spring. At least it's not snowing! Hey, at least you can chase some high-based, pretty hailers this evening. If I was local I'd be all over that setup, but I'm not driving from WI to western OK for it even if I were on vacation!

Apparently, roughly where Toledo is?

How so? Looks like it ends (at least on Pivotal at 240H) with a trough west/ridge east.

Can you give a little bit of background for what it means for CONUS severe weather which phase the MJO is in? Which phases are favorable and which are not?