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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Yet Plains chasers aren't optimistic, as the general consensus seems to be that La Nina leads to drought and excessive capping for their region. It seems to be a mixed bag for here in the upper Midwest. We can get very active years like 2008 where there was pretty much sustained severe weather and tornado activity from the 4th week of May through the first two weeks of June. However every year after 2015 has pretty much been a total dud in this region, apart from sneaky overachieving events on low-key risk days at random times of the year (the latest being the 8/10 derecho).
  2. CheeselandSkies
    If it were El Nino the Pac would be going crazy...I've been counseling patience the last few weeks but even I have to start wondering now...where are the stadiums (apart from Laura's last few hours)?
  3. CheeselandSkies
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Plains chasers are used to it, as I said earlier it's usually the opposite problem in this neck of the woods because of our distance from the EML source region. Maddening, especially this year.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Clouds have come back in force this afternoon.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Hard to say. On a synoptic level, this is a pretty decent setup at least for southern WI. The big question mark though is whether that cap can be broken, especially before dark. Almost has the feel of many a springtime Plains setup in that regard. The annoying thing is, in most springtime setups in this area the problem is not enough cap to prevent early/messy initiation. Edit: 16Z HRRR says no joy except some mess across western lower Michigan. Local soundings are solidly capped.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    15.4 degrees C at Omaha according to SPC and that will be advecting into the risk area on southwesterly winds at that layer. It represents a quite strong cap which is why @hlcater is not enthusiastic about this setup.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Not super pumped with those 700mb temps but definitely worth keeping an eye on things locally this afternoon/evening.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Yep, some nice boomers this morning. Probably the best all warm season, just in time for it to end. Vis sat shows much of IA and SW WI clearing nicely. Clearing line should be passing us here shortly.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Well, you were the guy who scored Kalona (ONLY storm that day that sustained long enough to do that) and Iowa is notorious for stupid things like that. Probably not worth the drive for me from Madison, though with work at 3AM Monday.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Lacking the visible inversion there and 0 on the SBCINH. SRH and lapse rates look good, perhaps the best I've seen in this region this whole lousy year. Low level winds look weak and veered, but the winds veer further and increase nicely in the 850-700mb layer. What is the significance of the temperature and dewpoint coming together (100% RH) just below 850mb?
  12. CheeselandSkies
    g0oOFus is proving worthless for predicting Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis >48 hours out this year. Euro hasn't been much better but at least it's trying. Also, GFS actually does show systems. I refer you to: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2849976#p2849976
  13. CheeselandSkies
    How does the one in the Gulf not landfall??
  14. CheeselandSkies
    @hlcater, where and when are those forecast soundings valid for? Off what model?
  15. CheeselandSkies
    @ldub23 this season. TBH I'm starting to get there, too and so are some others based on the state of the season thread lately.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe super-compact intense hurricanes like Andrew and Charley had similar pressure drops in their cores.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational?
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Guess we'll have to busy ourselves tracking more hurricanes...although @ldub23 says there's too much SAL.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Down to slight, 5% moved to our NE. I'll keep on saving the gas money for next spring.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    (Cartman voice) Weak. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1609.html
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Yep, looks like 2020 will join 2018 as a one-and-done chase year for me (August 10th was the only time I got out, to get in the northern fringes of the derecho). In 2018 I didn't get out till a day in October, when a bunch of tornado-warned minisupercells randomly blew up (none actually produced in WI).
  23. CheeselandSkies
    I think we are hosed for later today, the way this line is moving in southern MN with some training/back-building in far northern IA it's not going to clear up here by noon unless it breaks up and dissipates. *Ironically there are actually some breaks in the clouds now (which I wasn't expecting, as I was expecting the overnight line to be here right now or within the next hour) so maybe it can intensify some and be the main show. Still probably nothing worth chasing.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Of course ARX radar is down as I want to see what this line coming in is doing. Apparently it was a planned outage of which today is the last day, so naturally there would be severe weather in the area. https://www.weather.gov/arx/SLEP_pedestal
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Warnings going out locally this afternoon. Wasn't really expecting the action until overnight and tomorrow.
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