CheeselandSkies

Interesting, usually CPC follows SPC's Day 4-8 in that outlook. Rarely seen them introduce a severe area on their own since the Day 4-8 became a thing (or do so beyond 8 days).

Ugly in the sense of favorable for svr wx?

Good insight, I need to get better about remembering this. Being based further north (like you) I've seen many an early season (even well into May for us) potential setup get quashed by insufficient instability, so I'm a CAPE guy. I get really geeked out to chase on those 86/77 days, then wonder why the updrafts weren't going up like atom bombs. This mindset cost me on 4/9/2015, when I was bumming around IN OGLE COUNTY, IL until about 4:30 PM, then threw in the towel and started for home. Got there just in time to pull up GR Level 3 and see the debris ball about 10 miles from where I'd just been 90 minutes before.

Good to hear this. Any YouTube uploads of this "pregame" coverage? It seems to me far too often most local TV mets (**coughcough the ones in my local market**) just parrot what the models are spitting out/what the NWS says, are reluctant to do their own mesoscale forecasting; go out on a limb and either downplay an event that everybody else is hyping (would have served them well in most of the snow events this past winter) or sound the alarm about what had seemed like a low-key situation (like overnight Monday-Tuesday). It's high reward, get it right and you look like a genius and earn major credibility for your station over the competition, but also high risk if you get it wrong.

Came out of work at noon to a clear blue sky, a touch of warmth from the midday sun, and the sirens blowing for the first-Wednesday-of-the-month test. A little eerie after what just happened in Tennessee, but nice.

Anomalous early season warmth this far north without the threat of...meh.

Slightly OT but it always used to weird me out when Toronto posters would talk about getting rainers. I always thought of Canada as this place way far to the north that's inevitably colder and snowier than us. I have to remember Toronto is only a few degrees of latitude north of me.

When Madison was riding the southern cutoff but still got over 10." What could go wrong?

If that happens and kills the tornado season just like in 2018, 100% chance I lose all interest in weather. Been nice knowing y'all. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

After that suite with a near unanimous agreement on 10"+ for Madison...

See, and here I thought that period was just us getting back to proper Wisconsin winters.

Been a long long time since there was a proper regional outbreak. I think you have to go back to Palm Sunday 1965 for one that affected IA, WI, IL, MI, IN and OH.

What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing?

I was just thinking to myself looking at radar and out the windows at work that this has the look of an overachiever. Go figure, since totals with this event were not expected to be that impressive to begin with. Why can't we ever get an anticipated big dog that verifies at or above even the high end of guidance?

When I was a kid growing up in Madison (early '90s), our TWC local forecasts would always show current conditions at Madison, as you'd expect. However, when I visited my paternal grandparents in Beloit, their local forecasts always began with "Conditions at Lone Rock." This struck me as odd even then, even more so when I realized Lone Rock isn't anywhere near Beloit.

Seen that happen not just with winter but with potential severe outbreaks and TC track/intensity...craziness.

You have to adjust for the Chris Broyles hype factor in any convective outlook he does. He has a history of being enthusiastically over-bullish on severe/tornado potential (he tends to forecast for the worst-case scenario within the model spread, instead of a blend/the most probable).

After hemming and hawing for several days due to model variability...SPC went ahead and dropped a big old Day 4 30% for Dixie Alley...and it wasn't Broyles!

Already a notable shift south from the previous 0Z run which had a big dog for S. WI. I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp at this point.

4.6" would be right up there for us this winter.

I know, right?

Man, that broad belt of vigorous 500mb SW flow east of the Rockies on the GFS about 5-7 days from now would be awesome if it was A/M/J. Someone in the sub might still have to keep an eye out for an overachieving early season severe event, although it'll more likely be in the Dixie jungles.

Our hotel is right across from it. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

While some are complaining about the lack of cold air, I'm wondering why it's basically the same temperature (mid-30s) and sky conditions (overcast) in southern Ohio as I left in Madison. 35 is mild by Wisconsin January standards, so you'd think it could be like in the 50s here, but nooooooo. Also been getting snow showers (melting on contact with the pavement) most of the day. - Currently in Dayton for my fiancee's brother's Air Force promotion. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Just in time to make it keep snowing through the end of April and virtually eliminate the storm chase season, just like 2018.