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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    HWRF once again nailed the medium-range IR presentation, depicting just about what is shown above on the run yesterday morning. Its reputation as a clown model is somewhat undeserved, IMO. It definitely has an excessive deepening bias at longer ranges especially with invests that haven't actually formed into tropical cyclones yet. Give it an established cyclone and it has been downright uncanny with structure and intensity in the short to medium range.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    ACE is the place with the tropical weenie folks.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Of course, the phase has to actually happen. We thought that was going to happen with Cristobal and it was a big ol' nothingburger around here despite being the first actual warm-core cyclone to track through Wisconsin since the remnants of Gilbert in 1988, and setting a record low June MSLP at KMSN.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    This is why I never buy the first round of intensity estimates. Too many moving parts. Almost every expected strong storm comes in weaker, and vice versa.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Can we at least get some severe weather outbreaks before the cold really locks in? Upcoming pattern after this little tease of winter looks to turn milder but maddeningly quiescent, which seems to be the rule in this region of late apart from some random day in August.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    I think he's referring to the anti-lockdown protests (armed buffoons in the MI state capitol, etc) which pre-dated the racial justice protests.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Hopefully it means an end to this highs in the 30s in Oct crap.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Also that the WPAC, apparently out of spite, supposedly caused some of the Atlantic systems' struggles by Typhoon Maysak contributing to the formation of a TUTT in the Atlantic in September which reduced the intensity/longevity of some of the MDR systems.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Send it 75 miles north, please.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Sounds about right.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    One last hurrah for some rumblers tomorrow? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
  12. CheeselandSkies
    '07-'08 was my last year attending UW-Green Bay with winter break trip home so I got to experience it in both northeast and south-central Wisconsin. As I recall your assessment is accurate.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    I'd take the constant storminess over the extended arctic air and modest-to-moderate snowstorms. '13-'14 got to be brutal and my power bills were astronomical in my electric-heated apartment.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    I will take that, we were buried in snow most of DJF but there was that early-mid January thaw that also included a regional tornado outbreak.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah. Given seasonal indicators/ENSO state and SSTs/OHC in the vicinity I thought GFS/GEFS were on point with a hurricane, potentially a Mitch/Wilma-like beast coming out of the Caribbean. Now...not so much.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    As much as I'd love to see something like that, I don't buy it for a second.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Some of the GFS tracks in recent days haven't been too far off from that.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    It's not a "media claim." It's based on a 126 MPH measurement at Atkins and a 140 MPH estimate by DVN survey in Cedar Rapids. Granted those are gusts, but you don't really see sustained winds of that magnitude on land in any but perhaps the very strongest hurricanes (think Irma in the Leewards, Dorian in the Bahamas).
  19. CheeselandSkies
    I'd rather we were the new Southern Plains in terms of tornado potential, but that doesn't seem to be happening (at least not on a reliable/predictable A/M/J basis).
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Yes...yes. It seems that is what needs to happen to get quality severe weather in the central CONUS again.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    I have Prospero on Ignore due to his conspiracy-mongering.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Anyone else see the 06Z GEFS and GFS op? (at work so can't post it, but suffice to say it was...eyebrow raising)
  23. CheeselandSkies
    ...is it S****?
  24. CheeselandSkies
    What happened to that?
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Michael was basically the unicorn of landfalls. In the CONUS, in daylight, with a perfectly formed stadium eyewall untouched by EWRC or dry air; yet it is barely talked about outside of those it impacted and those who chased it.
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