CheeselandSkies

Yeah, after flirting with it in 2006, '09 and (IMO) 2018, I think 1988 has officially been dethroned as the worst season in the history of the practice (I was 2 at the time so I don't remember it personally). Ironically, our chief meteorologist said today that year was also the last time the center of a remnant tropical cyclone tracked into Wisconsin (Hurricane Gilbert, although that was at a more seasonable time of year for such an event-September). I was hoping for some good storms to take my mind off the COVID pandemic, but instead I think the pandemic and more recently the Floyd fallout have taken my mind off the lack of storms.

Looks like the good wind whiffs south-central WI to the east. Gets into the eastern part of MKX's CWA though, and they are still pretty mum about the possibility.

MKX not really buying into that yet. My point forecast for Tuesday night says "winds could gust as high as 30 MPH." Wednesday is "A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75."

I can't help but wonder if without Cristobal in the picture we'd be getting a more predictable/high-ceiling early June regional severe weather event with that shortwave.

Does the fact that Cristobal has been stuck over the Yucatan for several days and will likely have to rebuild its tropical convective core from near-scratch as it comes back across the GOM have any bearing on impacts for us vs. some of the runs which showed it getting back over water quicker and becoming a Cat 1--2 hurricane? If some of these runs are to be believed it could become quite a bit deeper over the Midwest than it ever does as a tropical system.

@madwx direct hit on us by Wednesday morning lol

About half an hour ago.

Yeah, seems like HRRR whiffed pretty bad. Did not show robust development this far east this early.

HRRR still doesn't want to give southern WI much of anything. Shows Madison remaining nearly dry overnight.

Kinda dredges up memories of summer 2012, although it didn't often get that humid.

Pretty violent outbreak and kinda far south for the time of year. By June you think of northern parts of IL/IN/OH plus MI/WI/IA/MN getting in on the action. I mean the affected parts of IL/IN are roughly those along the Tri-State (mid-March) path.

1630 update: 30% hail probabilities trimmed away from us, 5% TOR removed, but hatched area added to 30% wind.

Is it me or is the SPC site getting worse and worse with not displaying outlook updates? 1325 and the 13Z update still does not show for me no matter how many times I refresh. It's available on COD (as usual) which shows it was issued at 1258. Thank goodness it's not this bad for shorter-fuse products like watches and MDs.

Pretty big expansion of the enhanced risk into WI on the Day 1, now clips the Madison area. Still not overly impressed with the CAMS, though.

Despite our being in the slight risk, the 3K NAM (notorious for blowing up giant MCCs at the slightest provocation) doesn't show southern WI getting much Tuesday night. WRF-ARW seeems to concur. HRW NMMB and WRF-NSSL (not too familiar with those last three CAMS vs. the 3K NAM and HRRR) at least give us some thunder, but not looking to impressive either. This looks like yet another year where severe events go from missing us to the south, right to missing us to the north.

Bring it.

Par for the course, but I wouldn't mind an actual decent ring of fire setup that actually affects southern Wisconsin.

MKX confirms tornado report near Beloit/Clinton a week ago was bogus. https://www.weather.gov/mkx/tornadoupdate52320

Finally got to enjoy a decent thunderstorm here. Saturday Madison was stuck under northward-moving training showers. I vacillated too long on whether or not to chase, by the time it was clear the good stuff was going to miss us to the southeast it was too late.

The discussion and probability breakdown seems like something you'd expect to see with a tornado watch issued for a landfalling TC, not in the Midwest in late May.

Nothing but rain, rain, rain here with scarcely a rumble.

Man, I thought no May could be duller than 2018 in the Midwest/Plains. At least that had Tescott for those who were able to get out for it. 2006 and 2009 were pretty bad but they seemed like anomalies in that decade.

Ohio Valley cutoffs happen every so often in spring. They're the bane of storm chasers and people who just want to enjoy some nice spring weather. IIRC there was one in early May 2016 but it moved east enough to allow for the sequence that produced Wynnewood, and then the DDC-Chapman sequence happened later in the month. I seem to recall in 2009 they were still happening in July. Edit: @Geoboy645 beat me to it.

Difference is the major lack of thunder/severe this time around. COVID put the kibosh on any Plains dreams I might have had this year, anyway. Of course last year's 3,000 mile round trip to stare at the wall of murk surrounding the Mangum tornado wasn't exactly rewarding or fun. Nothing like driving all that way, getting on the right storm at the right time, and not playing it right.