CheeselandSkies

Maybe, just MAYBE the confluence will back off just a tad and this system can be what we all thought tonight's was going to be. Hey, at least we've gone from complaining about a zzzzz pattern with no systems to complaining about how the systems always downtrend from the medium range. That's progress...right?

IC getting buried while CR gets nada...sound about right @hlcater?

Great, might be a good day to run my dash mounted GoPro on my 2:50 AM commute into work.

Good, chip away at that severe drought area in the West. Chase season seems to be such a fine line between too dry = too much EML (everything cap busts) and too wet = not enough EML (storms go up in messy clusters at or before noon). Thankfully this Nina winter, despite its recent long dull stretch, does not seem to be trending toward the extreme Midwest dryness of 2011-'12.

Per radar, snow advancement into WI seems to have stalled in Lafayette/southern Grant Counties for now. *Edit: Kinda odd that DVN shows it pushing into southern Dane, but MKX doesn't. Must be virga.

Rather surprisingly, MKX went with a warning for their far SE or "KRM" counties (Kenosha, Racine, Milwaukee) for potential lake enhancement plus onshore winds (per the AFD).

Upgraded to slight. After downtrending quite a bit from some ominous longer range model solutions, the mesoscale has swung the ceiling for today's threat modestly back in the other direction (rather like the accompanying Midwest/western Great Lakes winter storm). @andyhb posted a sounding elsewhere showing a significant EML on today's 12Z Shreveport sounding, the type which could move problematic should they accompany later systems that hold together better with eastward extent.

This ain't 2008 or 2011...weather just doesn't do cool **** in the midsection of the country anymore, whether winter or severe, even with a La Nina. * Unless it's a historic derecho that just happens without any sort of lead time from the models and thus from the forecasting enterprise.

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Seems like less outside my window.

Yeah not impressed. Roads/parking lot/parked cars are mostly clear. Was anticipating a 2-3"er at some point this weekend.

"...just kidding." (Plugs it back in and laughs manically)

It seems like steep gradients in totals along both the north and south sides of the "jackpot" band are just how snowstorms work in this region. I'm guessing it's the -NAO block suppression keeping the meat of this south of us, while it's mixing issues on the south edge. Euro had several consecutive runs with Madison getting over 11" going into Thursday morning, then dropped us to less than 2".

Except the 5" difference for Madison, lol. I've seen anything from over 9" to less than 0.5" on the solutions posted within just the last couple hours. @madwx, make it make sense!

From 11.3 to 1.7 for us @madwx.

There's that slide south, perfect timing lmao.

Why can't the Euro be king anymore?

Which is why I don't remember that winter being so impressive, just miserable f**king cold for way too long without a break.

My ideal April day is 74/68 with a high risk of severe thunderstorms. When has that happened in this region in the last 20 years?

Remember when the Euro showed something happening, you sat up and took notice?

2014 wasn't bad considering the slow start (although frustrating for me since I missed the Pilger family by an hour and targeted Iowa the following day, but at least the opportunity was there). There were a number of high risks in 2001 but they generally busted. 2017 was meh, but actually one of the better post-2015 seasons, sadly. The event of the year locally happened before I was ready for it (February 28th).

Great, down to a 4/27/11's worth (give or take a hundred) of deaths per day and that'll be great progress. This whole thing has really made weather seem a lot less awe-inspiring (that combined with the extended period of atmospheric suckitude in the central CONUS).

You know it's bad when Angry posts something that makes sense.

About as stark a contrast as you can get between those two sets of analogs. I sure as hell don't know what to make of it. Granted ENSO isn't the only large-scale driver of severe weather potential but it'd be much more confidence-inspiring to see things leaning more 1974/2008/2011-ish than 2006/09/12/18, although the line seems rather fine. Also, at least anecdotally, 2012 behaved nothing like the other years in that group being extremely warm and dry throughout the central CONUS from March through about September. Also, shouldn't this be "2021 ENSO" by now? Seeing as we skipped over 2020.

Which one did you get?