CheeselandSkies

Stayed at work 45 minutes late today as we were in wall to wall until the last warning expired for the Madison media market. Our met at first assumed they'd warned for a cold air funnel. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Apollo 12 was struck by lightning twice immediately after liftoff, and not only survived but successfully completed its mission to the Moon.

This is basically a Wilma-sized storm hitting the more populated area that Charley did with roughly the same intensity.

How else do you think everything is reported in nice, clean 5 or 10 kt/MPH increments? Another example, you will never see a 55 MPH advisory intensity with a tropical storm because 45kt converts to 51.79 MPH which rounds down to 50 MPH; and 50kt = 57.54 MPH which rounds up to 60 MPH. The same thing happens with 95 MPH, 135 MPH, and 170 MPH.

Couple of Ian-related LSRs popping up, tropical storm conditions and wind damage observed in the Keys. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 443 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0435 PM TROPICAL STORM 5 WSW BOCA CHICA CHANNE 24.55N 81.80W 09/27/2022 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC A LARGE SILVER BUTTONWOOD WAS DOWNED BY HIGH WINDS ON UNITED STREET AND DUVAL STREET IN KEY WEST. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 457 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0454 PM TROPICAL STORM 4 WSW BOCA CHICA 24.56N 81.75W 09/27/2022 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL ASOS A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH, OR 52 KTS, WAS RECORDED BY THE ASOS AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 445 PM EDT. THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER RAINBAND OF HURRICANE IAN.

More hot towers firing up on the last few frames of the IR loop, Ian doing more work on its already impressive eyewall.

Global model resolution isn't high enough to accurately model pressures in intense TCs. Values from the GFS and especially the EURO and UKMET shouldn't be taken verbatim.

Where's @ldub23? How's that TS at landfall looking?

Nice one, considering NHC doesn't report 135 MPH since they do everything in kts then round. Thus 115kt rounds to 130 MPH and 120kt to 140. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Seems there's almost always some sort of steering breakdown/stall/sharp turn involved right around landfall that complicates the forecast. Harvey, Irma, Florence, Dorian, Sally...now Ian. Storms that just truck right on across the coast like Andrew or Charley seem to be the rare exception (Micheal being the only such case in recent years*, perhaps not coincidentally it's also the only one in their league regarding LF intensity). *Well, actually Laura and Ida too...A.K.A. the shrimp folk storms.

Gutsy call given the bulk of the modeling remains just offshore followed by a stall and limping into the NGOM/Big Bend coast while being sheared apart. Still would have some significant impacts, no doubt and a weenie-tastic nail biter of a forecast.

Surprise line of severe t-storms in SE WI today. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Euro isn't a TC intensity model and its pressures shouldn't be taken verbatim. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Some systems in recent years I'd agree with that sentiment, Hermine is not such a case based on the satellite images I saw around time of upgrade. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Stole Hermine per 18Z BT, so now 9 is gonna get the "I," naturally.

Looks like the eye collapsed (or at least became cloud-filled), then just re-opened again.

Took so long this season my click finger has gotten rusty, I can barely save satellite loops fast enough.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have what is known as "the opening of the eye."

Not a single tornado report out of yesterday. Glad I didn't bite on the HRRR nor SPCs 10 hatch.

Good, because he was getting desperate. I'm sure he wasn't expecting the first chaseworthy threat in any accessible basin (apparently he still can't go to Japan for the recent typhoons because of their COVID travel restrictions, which is weird because a local metal band I'm a fan of recently announced they're planning a tour of Japan for December) this season to come after September 15th.

It's a Cat. 1. It's not a secret that Cat. 1s, even T.S.'s (heck, even open waves) are capable of catastrophic freshwater flooding, usually due to some combination of meteorological and geographic/orographic factors as is the case here. However, its existence does not "un-bust" pre/early-season forecasts of AA to hyperactive ACE totals and multiple long-tracking CV majors.

Sounds like SPC tacitly waving the white flag on sig threat with this MD. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1797.html

Initial TOR-warned cell died and the new development seems to want to go insta-cluster. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Right on cue at 00Z, TOR went out for the Bloomfield storm. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk