CheeselandSkies

Seems like the GFS actually won out with this depiction, then? Most Euro runs were showing a more wound up/impactful system.

Certainly hope you're right on the bolded. The absolute worst IMO is a boring D/J, followed by a late winter SSWE which locks in a winterlike pattern for about 8-10 weeks straight starting around Valentine's Day, leading to a chilly, miserable early-mid spring and a stunted/shortened season; yet any would-be significant events are also limited in their impact because they are fighting climo/sun angle. Feels like we have seen several of these in the last decade or so (2018 in particular stands out).

What is this? An actual signal for a system? This, sir, is the winter of 2024-'25! THIS SHALL NOT STAND! ...in all seriousness, it won't verify but that amount of ice depicted would be catastrophic. The region desperately needs precipitation in any form.

Remains bone dry here. Sun even came out. Aside from the cold snaps (naturally), this is starting to give me uncomfortable shades of the 2011-'12 winter, which led into a spring/summer when we couldn't buy a raindrop, let alone a .

It was all the stations owned by Allen Media Group that were going to do that. Would have been the ABC station here in Madison.

Maybe it will bring some early season chances.

So this is the post-Tuesday "warmup"?

24 hours ago, wasn't it "coast to coast zzzzzzzz"? I'd love to see that, but I'd need a few more days of model consistency to even start to hope.

Wagons north, please!...say Jackson, Birmingham, Atlanta.

I'm not even a winter guy but...

Last night into this morning was expected to be the "main event" for us this weekend, but it looks like we got a DAB if anything at all. We actually got more Friday night.

This morning's DAB has contributed to something on the order of a dozen slide-offs around southern Wisconsin already, and that's just on the major highway systems that get shown on the state DOT's live map. Many of the major Interstates/US highways around the Madison area are parking lots at the moment.

Kick myself for not chasing 2/8 but come on...the dewpoint was like 48. The better potential (and even that was marginal) was thought to be further south in IL. From April-May had probably my greatest number of local/regional chases than any prior year, and was on more tornadic storms than any previous year, but reverted solidly to form and managed to miss all potential dramatic intercepts like Keota. Coming home from my May 21 chase in IA I had to detour around multiple roads blocked by downed trees/power lines, and nearly ran out of gas as a result. There were broken trees less than two blocks from my apartment. Going to work the next morning (3 AM start), some neighborhoods were pitch black with all street lights and even traffic lights out. One of the more widespread and impactful severe wind events for southern Wisconsin, and west Madison in particular in probably over 10 years. Didn't go out for the big Northern Lights display in May because I didn't think the clouds would clear around here, but it definitely put photographing an aurora high on my bucket list. Finally did it with the display on the night of October 10-11, although my shots aren't the most stellar, it's a start.

My favorite CP3 moment:

If you're referring to the Mega Millions jackpot, that was won in California on the Friday 12/27 drawing.

Seen a storm total LSR of 6" at Fennimore and 9.1" at Horicon. Solid overperformer across southern WI.

It's interesting how only a degree of latitude further north and I have a vastly different perception. I view the long stretches of no precip (either CAD in winter or WAD in summer) seemingly regardless of ENSO state as the overarching issue.

Recent stretch of GFS runs has had a signal that says watch out for chances between Christmas and New Year's...could be anywhere from the Deep South to Iowa at this point.

Been wondering what with the incoming (delayed) La Nina if the other shoe would drop and we would see a bona fide late fall/met winter outbreak or 2 a la 2021. These last few troughs have struggled with lack of moisture return and/or maturing too late, becoming negatively tilted only just before the warm sector pushes completely off the east coast.

Still waiting for the Frostnado.

A day late for the 15th anniversary because I forgot yesterday. December 8-9, 2009 was one of the few double-digit total snowstorms I remember in my adult life, and perhaps the only one that occurred pre-Solstice. This video was taken at the house where I lived with my parents at the time, near Stoughton, Dane County, WI. What also made it memorable was that it was heavy, wet, pure heart attack paste. Don't want to guess at ratios but certainly on the wetter side of 10:1. The weight of it combined with the gusty winds at the height of the storm brought down multiple large tree limbs.

Pretty remarkable given the extended dry stretch we had after the spring faucet turned off.

Those panhandle hooks aren't too common but can be big time storms for our region with a mixed bag of heavy , synoptic winds and depending on which air mass you end up in, and assuming the system has an adequate moisture feed.

Yep, overperforming a bit in west Madison IMO. Roads have been a mess with at least two crashes closing I-94 between Madison and Milwaukee for long stretches of time.

ICON's apparently been doing well with tropical cyclones this year, be interesting to see how that translates to extratropical ones.