CheeselandSkies

I'm usually not too impressed by "heatwaves," especially in recent years, but if the forecast for midweek verifies it'll be getting into some rarefied territory for this neck of the woods, for anytime really but especially this late in the summer. Been kinda rolling my eyes at all the media blather about record-shattering heat all around the world while we've been locked in this relatively mild summer pattern in the western Great Lakes, but it looks like it's finally our turn to pay the piper. Excessive Heat Watch now hoisted for Dane County Tuesday-Thursday. For our resident southern Wisconsin climo expert @madwx, when was the last time we were under one for that long a duration?

Had hoped the slug of Pacific moisture from Hilary would kick-start something but it appears its mostly going to get wrung out over the west and anything left will go over the ridge way to the north.

Never really followed weather in the far SW US before...just thought it was stupid that it has so many NEXRAD sites so close to each other when there are such huge gaps in tornado-prone areas of the Plains, Midwest and South...then I realized that KNKX and KSOX can't even see all the rain that is prompting the flash flood warning from just north of Calipatria to I-10 that KYUX can, because of the Peninsular Ranges.

I was relatively new to the forum then but I thought that poster might have learned some humility after making a post essentially cancelling 2017 mere days before Harvey regenerated, to be quickly followed by Irma, Jose, Maria, etc. Little did I know how wrong I was.

It's the 18th anniversary of the August 18, 2005 Wisconsin tornado outbreak, which set a single-day state record for number of tornadoes which still stands, and produced the long-track high end F3 which nearly hit the house where I was living at the time (my parents still do) in a subdivision just northeast of Stoughton. Here's WMTV Channel 15 (NBC station) then-meteorologist David George pointing out the hook echo over Stoughton.

Finally posted full video of the storm from a week ago today with near-constant lightning (including the bolt striking the TV tower) and vigorous gust front winds.

The mets where I work are definitely siding more with the Euro, already hoisting "First Alert Days" for heat Sunday and Monday.

Seems to have stopped for now.

Is anyone else suddenly getting their inbox flooded with "new reply" emails regarding this, or any other threads on this forum? It started for me a couple days ago, and they were all for replies that were several hours to several days old. I changed my follow preferences to "no email" (which I thought it was already set to, hence why I wasn't getting the emails before) and it continued, so I unfollowed the thread entirely and it still continues.

So a dewpoint of about 55 should be a good compromise forecast, right?

Flood watch actually out for tomorrow's anticipated rains.

Yeah, it's like this whole spring/summer decided to do everything backwards. Although not unheard of in recent years. Anecdotally 2018 and 2021 were similar IMBY. Boring and dry springs/early summers followed by much more active from mid-July and/or August on.

Marginal pulled back along WI/IL line on Day 2 update, to go along with tomorrow's rain event. Most of IN/OH/SW LM included as well. 5/5/2 W/H/, so far. I think low timing is just a little too fast for us, though. It's gone through and low-level winds are veered by the time daytime heating kicks in.

More cells moving in from the west, small but still prolific lightning producers.

Best storm of the year at home for me (beating July 28 because the lightning was just as frequent but more visible, plus we had a long-duration blast of ~40 MPH gust front winds). Heaviest part of the core with probable hail missed me to the SW.

Happy 3rd anniversary of the MOAD (Mother of all Derechos). Attached is the initial Day 1 outlook with reports.

Interesting. I haven't found a hornet nest in years. I think 2012 was the last one.

We'll see if we even get a drop tonight. Funny, as of 3 days ago SPC was expecting us to be in the prime tornado risk area for today. Trying to remember the last time a good summer MCV outbreak didn't miss southern Wisconsin to the south. Might have to go all the way back to July 22nd, 2010.

Yesterday Day 4 outlook was talking about warm front with primary threat over southern WI. Last 2 NAM runs have like zero EHI north of about I-64 in IL. Ironically, after the GFS was the most progressive solution by far the last couple days, the 18Z actually retrogrades the low center a bit from 21Z Sunday to 00Z Monday. Even so, the warm sector environment isn't very impressive up north along the triple point/WF, mucked up by widespread ongoing convection at 00Z Monday. Moreover, it seems this system has trended sort of disjointed, with the SFC low still forecast in a favorable position for a S WI/N IL tornado threat, but the main 500mb jet now forecast much further south, with the speed max/left exit region being over SW IN/KY. This is why they shouldn't bother getting too cute with these outlooks in July/August.

Yeah looks like massive amounts of rain wrecks the instability.

Good write-up from LOT:

...and 0Z NAM now flipped to progressive solution with warm sector into central/even southern IN by 00Z Monday. Sayonara.

18Z GFS might be the start of the cave, finally has the low along the MS River at 00Z Monday. Environment still doesn't look super impressive, though* (at least not over nearly as widespread an area as the Day 4 highlight). Seems like the trough comes out a bit positively tilted with most of the flow hanging on the back side. Meanwhile, 12Z NAM had the sfc low center over northern WI at 00Z Monday; 18Z has it over the IA/MO/IL confluence, but at about the same longitude. Lots yet to be sorted out. *No doubt due in large part to the massive amount of convection the model breaks out.

GFS is still vastly more progressive than the other models. Latest (06Z) run has the low over Milwaukee at 18Z Sunday, while 06Z NAM has it west of Mason City, IA at that time (as far out as it goes). 00Z Euro (can't see 06Z on free Pivotal) has it pretty much right over Mason City. Again this does seem to be a known bias of the GFS, so not surprising SPC is siding with other guidance. Euro also deepens the low 2MB from 18Z Sunday to 00Z Monday...