CheeselandSkies

In 2019/20, direct hits (landfall from the latter) from Humberto and Paulette caused fairly heavy damage, but no deaths and not enough to warrant retirement. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

A couple of the high-res CAMs (NOT the HRRR!) actually appeared to quite accurately resolve* the mesocyclone associated with the Table Grove/Lewistown, IL tornadic supercell on April 4 nearly 24 hours in advance. Unfortunately I didn't put enough stock in them to catch it (ended up too late to the area and stuck on the wrong side of the storm near Monmouth when the warning went out, and I don't core-punch unless I am fairly confident that the conditions do not favor large, damaging hail). However even they couldn't resolve individual tornadoes, unless they were predicting something the size of El Reno '13. *As in not just helicity tracks, but a localized pressure perturbation with extremely tightly packed isobars on the surface map.

It actually did though. Cat. 2 landfall on the far tip of the OBX.

Wow. I thought El Nino was supposed to prevent this? Then again it was supposed to prevent the Atlantic hurricane season, too.

All eyes squarely back on Lee, now. Even though Jova is still kinda pretty she's getting a little long in the tooth. Quite literally yesterday's news.

Some of the HAFS-B runs would disagree, but we'll see what happens.

Based on what? Not the >300 hour GFS op again, right?

The "I curse" is real, folks. Retirements since 2002: Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Igor, Irene, Ingrid, Irma, Ida, Ian Now likely Idalia. Kind of ironic that 2005 didn't manage to retire an "I" name, but the infamous 2013 did.

Fair enough.

May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.

I would wager 931 MB on the HWRF and 926 MB on the HAFS-B (both FH051) are not "strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4" verbatim. BTW, is there any other way to pronounce the new hurricane model besides "half-ass"? I can't think of one.

I prefer to wait for the actual frame-by-frame model runs of the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HWRF, HMON) with MSLP, sim IR, etc.

Where? All still the 06Z runs for me.

The 12Z hurricane models aren't actually out yet, and won't be for another few hours.

0Z HAFS-B gets it down to 929 MB (strongest non-fantasy range hurricane model output I've seen thus far) at FH057, but brings it back up a bit before landfall. All the hurricane models (and have for several runs) agree on a solid major hurricane, potentially a high-end (125kt+) one.

I don't even want to imagine the shenanigans that would be possible with Franklin and Idalia both drifting around in the western Atlantic late in the coming week.

18Z GFS with the casual 2MB/hr pressure drops continuing for 24 hours straight.

12Z GFS down to 960 MB, deepening on approach. IMO surge risk to Big Bend is higher with this storm than any for a long time. The coast is sparsely populated, but if this does come in as a strong major and causes a swath of intense wind damage deep inland, as others pointed out it's all mobile homes and RV parks in there.

HAFS-A is at 956 MB just offshore, at FH078. Next frame, at FH081, is at 954 MB well inland.

Special Message from NHC Issued 26 Aug 2023 20:16 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

If the latest HWRF verifies (again, not saying this is the most likely solution); western Cuba is in for a solid hurricane in less than 48 hours. Then after that... Looks like last night's 0Z run was a glitch in the matrix for the famously bullish hurricane model. Both 12Z HAFS also go nuts.

I wouldn't call it likely at this point but would be foolish to take anything off the table at this juncture.